330
FXUS61 KOKX 252317
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
717 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area this evening. High
pressure briefly builds into the area tonight into Saturday. A
weak frontal system moves across the area Saturday Night into
Sunday. High pressure returns to the area for Monday into
Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday
afternoon and moves offshore Tuesday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Organized thunderstorm activity has pushed just southeast of
the region this evening, with a gradually stabilizing and
drying environ in its wake.

Isolated showers, and perhaps a thunderstorms possible through
9pm as cold front pushes south and northern stream shortwave
slides through northern New England, but additional severe
storms are not expected.

A noticeably cooler and drier airmass filters in tonight in the
wake as high pressure builds down from the north. Lows tonight
into the lower to mid 70s along the coast and upper 60s interior
with Tds gradually falling into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Region remain on northeast periphery of strong southern upper
ridge through the weekend, with subtle ridging nosing in on
Saturday giving way to a shearing central plain short wave Sat
Night into Sunday.

At the surface, this evening`s cold front slides well SE of the
region by Saturday morning, with surface high pressure building
in from the north and centering to the E of the region by Sat
Night.

Dry conditions expected on Saturday, with noticeably drier and
cooler airmass advecting in on gusty N/NE flow Saturday AM, and a
veil of high clouds in upper flow. Temps will still run slight above
seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and heat indices
similar.

Models in general agreement with a shearing Central plains
shortwave approaching Sat Night and moving across the area
Sunday. At the surface, this will have a warm front approaching
the area Sat Night but likely not cleanly moving through the
area till Sun aft with a trailing trough crossing the region in
the afternoon or evening. Models have had a hard time locking in
on the specific of this event for a few days, with likely
difficulty in resolving the synoptic development tied to
mesoscale convective activity. Seems to be some general
agreement in a weak wave of low pressure tracking across the
region Sun morning into afternoon, which would be a focus for
more widespread shower and thunderstorms activity and a low
flash flood and severe risk in a high shear and marginally
unstable airmass. Latest guidance has trended this wave north
of the region, which would limit severe/flash flood potential
in the morning, and keep it low and isolated in the aft/eve with
warm front/trough passage. This will be refined through the
weekend as the convectively modified shortwave gets better
sampled it resolved by high res CAMs.

Otherwise near seasonable temps for Saturday Night with
increasing humidity levels as return flow develops. Warm and
muggy for Sunday, but temps may remain below seasonable with
clouds and shra/tsra activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No major changes were made to the long term with this update.

Key Points:

*High heat and humidity will return early next week, potentially
lingering into Wednesday. The peak of the heat currently looks to
occur on Tuesday with max heat index values 100 to around 105F.

*A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening with a weak cold front. The threat for showers and
thunderstorms continues Wednesday, potentially lingering into
Thursday as a stronger cold front moves into the area.

*Temperatures trend down to end the week with potential of below
normal temperatures. Humidity levels also should be much lower than
the first half of the week.

Good model agreement continues with a large upper ridge over much of
the central and southern CONUS dominating the weather pattern early
next week. The ridge builds towards the area Monday and Tuesday then
slowly gets pushed southward as a deep upper trough digs down from
southeast Canada to end the week. A series of shortwaves will move
across the northeast as the ridge weakens late Tuesday into the mid
week period.

850 mb temperatures nearing 18-21C early next week, peaking on
Tuesday, will result in max temperatures in the low to mid 90s
(upper 80s at the coast). Dew points will likely increase to the low
and mid 70s by Tuesday resulting in heat indices potentially as high
as the low 100s (upper 90s coastal areas). Heat headlines are likely
to be needed Monday and Tuesday. There is a bit more uncertainty
with the extent of the heat on Wednesday due to timing of the
aforementioned second cold front. This front passage may not occur
until Wednesday night or Thursday, which would potentially bring
another day of heat and humidity on Wednesday. The air mass then
cools significantly Thursday into Friday with the cold front pushing
to our south and east. The latest NBM deterministic indicates highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s with dew points in the 50s by Friday.

A shower or thunderstorm is possible Tuesday afternoon/evening, but
the chances are a bit higher on Wednesday with the stronger cold
front. Model soundings indicate 500-1000J/kg of MUCAPE though shear
is weak (~20kts) on Tuesday. Shear increases on Wednesday and modest
instability may be present. CSU-MLP machine learning output is
highlighting a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms, mainly from
NYC north and west Tuesday. It also indicates a similar potential on
Wednesday although it is shifted from NYC metro on south and west.
These details will come into more focus over the next few days, but
the trend in the last 24 hours is leaning towards Wednesday with the
main cold front and more organized forcing for convection.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front passes through this evening, with high pressure
briefly following for Saturday.

SW winds around 10 kt become NW behind the frontal passage in
the late afternoon/evening. Winds then veer overnight into
Saturday becoming SE by Saturday afternoon around 10 kt.
Occasional gusts up to about 20 kt are possible during this
afternoon outside of TSRA.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Thunderstorm threat has come to an end, except perhaps VCTS at
EWR through 01z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night - Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any
showers or thunderstorms.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday - Wednesday: Mainly VFR with possible MVFR or lower in
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered thunderstorm activity over the ocean, mainly east of
Moriches Inlet, is expected to sink se of the waters by 9pm.
Gusts to 30 kt possible with the strongest storms.

A brief period of 20 kt gusts is possible late tonight into
Saturday morning.

A relatively weak pressure gradient Monday through Wednesday will
lead to conditions staying below SCA levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The localized flash flood threat has come to an end for this
evening.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal system
could produce locally heavy downpours on Sunday that present a
minor urban flooding threat, with localized flash flood threat
appears low at this time.

There are currently no hydrologic concerns next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate to locally high rip current risk is in effect through
this evening with southerly wind waves building to 3 to 4 ft. A
moderate rip current risk continues for Saturday, though surf
heights lessen to 2-3ft and winds become east/southeasterly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures maybe be tied or broken today
July 25th. Here are the current records for the day...

EWR 99/2016
BDR 93/2001
NYC 97/1999
LGA 97/1999
JFK 93/2010
ISP 94/1987

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...