939
FXUS61 KALY 081842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
242 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With a frontal boundary near the region, showers and
thunderstorms are expected into tonight, especially for southern
areas. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty
winds and heavy downpours. While a few showers are possible
again on Wednesday, there will be a better chance on Thursday,
as the frontal boundary lifts back northward towards the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for the mid Hudson
  Valley and NW CT through this evening. Main threat will be
  damaging winds, although some storms could contain hail as
  well.

- All showers and thunderstorms will have the capability of
  producing locally heavy downpours which could lead to
  localized ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Flood Watch
  remains in effect through 2 AM Wednesday for Dutchess, E.
  Ulster and Litchfield Counties.

Discussion:

As of 242 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary continues to
settle southward across the forecast area. The boundary is now
through the Capital Region and Berkshires, but the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT still remain ahead of the front. SPC
mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/jg range
ahead of the front. Low level lapse rates fairly steep due to
the strong solar heating today, although mid-level lapse rates
are more meager in the 6 deg C/km. While 0-6 km bulk shear is
fairly weak (generally around 30 kts or less), there has been
enough to organize a few rogue thunderstorms over far southern
areas early this afternoon. One storm has been tall enough to
produce wind damage and small hail over NW CT.

Through the early evening hours, some additional storms are
possible over far southern areas as the front continues to push
southward. There is probably a better threat for storms over the
northern mid Atlantic States where there is somewhat higher
instability. SPC continues a marginal risk and CAMs continue to
suggest some additional storms are possible through the late
evening hours. This may be especially true in the 7 PM to 1 AM
time period, as a weak wave of low pressure slides along the
boundary and passes close to the area during this time period.

In addition, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy
downpours. PWATs are approaching two inches and surface
dewpoints are in the lower 70s. Storms have been moving fairly
slowly as well, so rainfall rates could approach 2 inches per
hour within the heaviest downpours. Flood Watch is in effect for
Dutchess and Litchfield Counties through 2 AM due to the
possibility of these heavy downpours. Urban, low lying and poor
drainage areas will be most as risk.

Temps have been fairly warm again today, especially across
southern areas. With dewpoints still in the 70s, heat index
values have been 90 to 100 across the mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT. Heat related illnesses are possible for those
who don`t take precautions in these areas through the evening
hours.

Elsewhere, it will remain partly to mostly cloudy into the
overnight with lows falling into the 60s. It will remain muggy
with elevated dewpoints, even for areas behind the front.

The front will be situated south of the area for Wednesday into
Wednesday night. While a few showers are possible for southern
or eastern areas, coverage looks fairly isolated. It will remain
warm and muggy once again with highs in the 80s, although it
appears that heat index values should stay below advisory
criteria.

There will be a better chance for additional showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday as the front lifts back northward as a
warm front. CAMs suggest a higher coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall due to the high
moisture in place and decent coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Although our area is not outlooked for severe at
this time, a few strong storms can`t be ruled out, as there
should be some shear in the 0-6 km layer thanks to lifting warm
front and enough breaks of sun will allow for some surface-based
instability to be in place. High temps look to reach into the
80s once again on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Typical summer weather is expected through much of the long term
period. Have stayed closed to NBM POPs through the extended with
just isolated to low chance for Fri-Sat and higher POPs in the
chance range for Sunday to Monday. This makes sense, as the next
shortwave looks to approach for the end of the weekend or early
next week. Best coverage looks to be in the afternoon to early
evening hours each day. Although it`s too early to pinpoint
exactly where and when, some threat for heavy downpours and/or
strong storms are likely to occur at some point during the
extended period.

Daytime temps will likely be in the mid to upper 80s each day
in valley areas with lows in the 60s. It should stay fairly
humid through the period with dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon with mostly dry weather present across eastern New
York and western New England. In fact, for KALB, it should remain
dry throughout the entirety of the 18z cycle with the threat for
showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold frontal boundary
displaced well to the south and the threat for some light showers in
association with an upper level disturbance displaced to the north.
That does mean, however that showers are possible for KGFL, KPOU,
and possibly KPSF. A brief period of light showers looks probable at
KGFL this evening between 22-02z, but other than ceilings lowering
into MVFR thresholds, little impact is expected. The same goes for
KPSF where light showers are possible between 05-08z. However, there
is more confidence in the precipitation at KGFL than at KPSF so a
TEMPO was added there and a PROB30 at KPSF. KPOU has the greatest
likelihood of showers with embedded heavy downpours this evening
with the aforementioned frontal boundary nearby. Though there is
some uncertainty in this element of the forecast due to model
differences in shower depiction, moderate confidence exists that
between 02 to 04z, moderate rain could impact the terminal. This
would likely force MVFR ceilings and visibility during this TEMPO
period. Upon the conclusion of precipitation this evening and
tonight, conditions gradually return to VFR by the end of the 18z
period. Winds will remain northerly to northeasterly throughout this
cycle with sustained speeds generally falling below 10 kt with
occasional gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon especially at KALB.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ065-066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant