446 FXUS61 KALY 261019 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 619 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .UPDATE... Have increased areal coverage of fog for areas north of I-90, where some locally dense fog persists within some river valleys. No other changes at this time. && .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring fair and warm conditions today with lower humidity levels. An approaching warm front will bring showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday. Hot and humid conditions then return for Monday and Tuesday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Key Messages: * Showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall late tonight into Sunday. * Hot and humid conditions return early next week with a medium chance (30%-60%) of feels like temperatures over 95 on Monday and Tuesday. As of 225 AM EDT, patchy clouds continue to slowly erode from NE to SW across the eastern Catskills/Helderbergs, with mainly clear skies elsewhere. Patchy fog was forming across portions of the southern Adirondacks and western New England where skies remain clear and temp/dewpoint spreads are nearing zero. Current temps are in the mid/upper 50s across the southern Adirondacks and some higher elevations across western New England, with 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Warm temperatures expected today but with lower humidity levels compared to recent days as dewpoints drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s by afternoon. Morning sunshine will give way to patches of mid level clouds this afternoon. Approaching warm front and mid level shortwave will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region tonight, mainly after midnight. Best forcing looks to be across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region toward daybreak, and with some weak elevated instability with Showalter Indices dropping to 0 to -2C along with PWAT`s increasing to nearly 2", locally heavy rainfall will be possible in these areas and perhaps spreading east into the Lake George/Saratoga region around daybreak. Clusters of showers/thunderstorms should be ongoing Sunday morning for many areas near and especially north of I-90, with a gradual expansion south and east by mid morning. Locally heavy rainfall looks to be the main attribute with rainfall rates possibly approaching 1"/hour. Will have to watch for potential training and/or backbuilding of heavier rain cores which could lead to ponding of water in some urban/poor drainage areas, and perhaps isolated flash flooding in any areas where repeated downpours occur. Main shortwave and associated forcing shifts east of the region during the afternoon. However, remnant differential heating boundary and mid level northwest flow could allow isolated/scattered thunderstorms to redevelop in the afternoon should some breaks in the clouds develop. At this time, best potential for additional convection looks to be near or south of I-90 and primarily west of I-87. Should convection redevelop, there could be enough shear with veering wind profile for some discrete cells to develop. Also, heavy rain will remain a threat should any additional training/backbuilding cells occur. Afternoon high temps should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, warmest in any areas where some afternoon sunshine develops. Any lingering showers/storms taper off Sunday evening. Hot and humid conditions then return for Monday into Tuesday, with NBM probs for MaxT>95 10-30% within the Hudson River Valley (greatest across mid Hudson Valley on Tuesday), and probs for dewpoints >72 30-60%+ each afternoon. Medium chances (30-60%) for heat indices reaching 95+ within large portions of the Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys each day, with heat advisories potentially being issued as we get closer in time. A weak cold front approaching from the northwest could bring isolated/scattered thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon/evening. Stronger cold frontal passage and approaching upper level trough bring additional shower/thunderstorm chances for Wednesday- Thursday, followed by fair weather by Friday. It will also become cooler and less humid by Friday, with highs mainly in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s for most areas with some 40s across the southern Adirondacks. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12z/Sun...Any lingering fog at KGFL/KPSF will lift early this morning; otherwise, VFR conditions are expected into the evening hours. Some showers and possible thunderstorms will move across the TAF sites between 08-12z/Sun as an upper level disturbance and warm front approach from the west. Will introduce MVFR cigs/vsbys with these showers with this update. Will hold off including thunder at this time. Winds will become south to southwesterly today at 4-8 kt continuing into tonight. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ UPDATE...KL SYNOPSIS...TH/KL DISCUSSION...KL AVIATION...Rathbun