939 FXUS61 KALY 081842 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... With a frontal boundary near the region, showers and thunderstorms are expected into tonight, especially for southern areas. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. While a few showers are possible again on Wednesday, there will be a better chance on Thursday, as the frontal boundary lifts back northward towards the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT through this evening. Main threat will be damaging winds, although some storms could contain hail as well. - All showers and thunderstorms will have the capability of producing locally heavy downpours which could lead to localized ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Flood Watch remains in effect through 2 AM Wednesday for Dutchess, E. Ulster and Litchfield Counties. Discussion: As of 242 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary continues to settle southward across the forecast area. The boundary is now through the Capital Region and Berkshires, but the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT still remain ahead of the front. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/jg range ahead of the front. Low level lapse rates fairly steep due to the strong solar heating today, although mid-level lapse rates are more meager in the 6 deg C/km. While 0-6 km bulk shear is fairly weak (generally around 30 kts or less), there has been enough to organize a few rogue thunderstorms over far southern areas early this afternoon. One storm has been tall enough to produce wind damage and small hail over NW CT. Through the early evening hours, some additional storms are possible over far southern areas as the front continues to push southward. There is probably a better threat for storms over the northern mid Atlantic States where there is somewhat higher instability. SPC continues a marginal risk and CAMs continue to suggest some additional storms are possible through the late evening hours. This may be especially true in the 7 PM to 1 AM time period, as a weak wave of low pressure slides along the boundary and passes close to the area during this time period. In addition, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours. PWATs are approaching two inches and surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s. Storms have been moving fairly slowly as well, so rainfall rates could approach 2 inches per hour within the heaviest downpours. Flood Watch is in effect for Dutchess and Litchfield Counties through 2 AM due to the possibility of these heavy downpours. Urban, low lying and poor drainage areas will be most as risk. Temps have been fairly warm again today, especially across southern areas. With dewpoints still in the 70s, heat index values have been 90 to 100 across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Heat related illnesses are possible for those who don`t take precautions in these areas through the evening hours. Elsewhere, it will remain partly to mostly cloudy into the overnight with lows falling into the 60s. It will remain muggy with elevated dewpoints, even for areas behind the front. The front will be situated south of the area for Wednesday into Wednesday night. While a few showers are possible for southern or eastern areas, coverage looks fairly isolated. It will remain warm and muggy once again with highs in the 80s, although it appears that heat index values should stay below advisory criteria. There will be a better chance for additional showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as the front lifts back northward as a warm front. CAMs suggest a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall due to the high moisture in place and decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Although our area is not outlooked for severe at this time, a few strong storms can`t be ruled out, as there should be some shear in the 0-6 km layer thanks to lifting warm front and enough breaks of sun will allow for some surface-based instability to be in place. High temps look to reach into the 80s once again on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Typical summer weather is expected through much of the long term period. Have stayed closed to NBM POPs through the extended with just isolated to low chance for Fri-Sat and higher POPs in the chance range for Sunday to Monday. This makes sense, as the next shortwave looks to approach for the end of the weekend or early next week. Best coverage looks to be in the afternoon to early evening hours each day. Although it`s too early to pinpoint exactly where and when, some threat for heavy downpours and/or strong storms are likely to occur at some point during the extended period. Daytime temps will likely be in the mid to upper 80s each day in valley areas with lows in the 60s. It should stay fairly humid through the period with dewpoints in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with mostly dry weather present across eastern New York and western New England. In fact, for KALB, it should remain dry throughout the entirety of the 18z cycle with the threat for showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold frontal boundary displaced well to the south and the threat for some light showers in association with an upper level disturbance displaced to the north. That does mean, however that showers are possible for KGFL, KPOU, and possibly KPSF. A brief period of light showers looks probable at KGFL this evening between 22-02z, but other than ceilings lowering into MVFR thresholds, little impact is expected. The same goes for KPSF where light showers are possible between 05-08z. However, there is more confidence in the precipitation at KGFL than at KPSF so a TEMPO was added there and a PROB30 at KPSF. KPOU has the greatest likelihood of showers with embedded heavy downpours this evening with the aforementioned frontal boundary nearby. Though there is some uncertainty in this element of the forecast due to model differences in shower depiction, moderate confidence exists that between 02 to 04z, moderate rain could impact the terminal. This would likely force MVFR ceilings and visibility during this TEMPO period. Upon the conclusion of precipitation this evening and tonight, conditions gradually return to VFR by the end of the 18z period. Winds will remain northerly to northeasterly throughout this cycle with sustained speeds generally falling below 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon especially at KALB. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066. Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ065-066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Gant