270 FXUS61 KALY 141120 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 720 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Beautiful spring day today with temperatures warming slightly above normal before a period of light rain tracks through tonight. While tomorrow starts off mild, a strong cold front sweeping through the region by the afternoon will result in gusty winds, much cooler temperatures, and areas of rain and even higher elevation snow showers. Cool and windy for Wednesday with upslope snow showers persisting in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens resulting in light snow accumulations. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message: - Pleasant spring day today with high confidence (greater than 75% chance) for temperatures to exceed 60 degrees. - Light rain showers tonight but overall rain amounts have trended downwards from previous forecasts with only few hundredths up around a tenth of an inch of rain expected. Discussion: Finally, we will enjoy a very pleasant spring day today as shortwave ridging builds into the Northeast with sun filtered through high clouds as some moisture spills overtop the ridge axis. While boundary layer winds will remain rather light, forecast soundings indicate mixing extends up to around 850hPa. With a milder air mass tracking overhead and 850hPa isotherms warming to +4C to +6C, probabilistic guidance shows greater than 75% chance for sfc temperatures (especially in the valley) to exceed 60 degrees and our current forecast shows highs reaching into the low to mid 60s. Heading into tonight, clouds thicken and lower as a surge of warm air and moisture advection track into the Northeast ahead of an occluded boundary. Overall moisture has decreased compared to previous model runs and thus total expect QPF has also trended downwards. This trend is also likely linked to increased confidence for a shortwave within the fast southwest flow to push through the mid-Atlantic resulting in a more organized area of rain and even some thunderstorms. The convection may "steal" some of the moisture that otherwise would have tracked into our area. Regardless, still expecting a period of light rain showers overnight amounting to a few hundredths up to a tenth or so. Limited POPs to chance tonight but included likely in the mid- Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills where the more organize area of rain to our south could graze. Otherwise, temperatures remain mild tonight in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Increasing confidence for strong, gusty winds Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with 30 to 40% chance for wind gusts to exceed 35 mph in the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into western Massachusetts. - A long duration of upslope and lake enhanced snow showers is likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night for the western Adirondacks. If confidence in snow amounts exceeding 4 inches increases, a winter weather advisory may be needed. Discussion: Tuesday starts off mild as the pseudo warm sector behind the occluded boundary noses into the Northeast with temperatures spiking into the upper 50s to even low 60s in the valley. However, the warmth is short-lived as the sharp trough axis associated with a potent cut-off low in southern Ontario takes on a negative tilt as it marches eastward, sending its strong sfc cold front through eastern NY and western New England by early to mid afternoon. Dew points surge towards 50 within the mild air mass ahead of the front with breaks of morning sun contributing to some weak MUCAPE values. High res guidance continue to hint at the potential for a line of low topped convection to develop as the cold front traverses the region Tuesday afternoon. Given that forecast soundings also show quickly steepening lapse rates along the boundary including 850 to 700hPa lapse reaching 7.5-8C/km, we decided to include slight chance thunder mainly from the Mohawk Valley eastward into the Capital District and western MA. Behind the front, temperatures quickly decrease and westerly winds turn quite gusty with forecast soundings showings gusts reaching up to 30 to 35mph (strongest down the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into western MA). In addition, cold air advection and moist cyclonic flow will likely support scattered rain showers through the afternoon with upslope showers in higher elevations turning to snow showers as we approach sunset. A secondary cold front pushes through the region late Tues afternoon into Tues evening resulting in a stronger surge of cold air advection and even gustier westerly winds reaching up to 30 - 40 mph overnight (strongest in the aforementioned areas). Showers become enhanced over the western Adirondacks and southern Greens thanks to continued strong upslope flow and strong winds advecting lake moisture downwind of Lake Ontario. Given the longevity of the strong upslope flow across the western Adirondacks, confidence is increasing that we may reach winter weather advisory criteria (4 inches or more) here. We will continue to monitor QPF and snow amount trends and evaluate the need for any winter weather headlines. While upslope snow showers will also impact the southern Greens Tues night, latest probabilistic guidance supports lower QPF amounts. The strong cold air advection and gusty winds look to also direct snow showers into the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, Taconics and western MA overnight which may result in light snow accumulations (coatings to less than an inch) for the higher elevations of these areas. Overnight temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s with upper 20s in the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens and eastern Catskills. Cold and blustery weather conditions continue into Wednesday as our cut-off low slowly departs into eastern Quebec and moist cyclonic flow continues aloft. With high pressure building into the Midwest as the cut-off low exits, the sfc pressure gradient over the Northeast tightens with forecast soundings showing cold air advection supporting deep boundary layer mixing and winds at the top of the mixed layer reaching 40-45kts. Probabilistic guidance shows 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and western MA to exceed 30mph and even 25 - 50% chance for winds to exceed 35mph. Thus, we will monitor trends and evaluate if a wind advisory may be needed; however, rather cloudy skies could keep winds under the 46mph threshold. Otherwise, upslope snow showers continue to impact the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens through the day with additional snow accumulations likely, especially Wednesday morning before the April sun becomes more of a factor. Daytime highs across the region fall below normal for mid-April likely struggling to rise out of the 40s. The blustery winds will only make it feel even chillier. Coverage of upslope snow showers trend downward Wednesday night as upper level ridging builds eastward. However, light snow showers look to linger through much of the night and chilly temperatures will support additional accumulations. Considering the 24 - 36 hour period of upslope snow showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night, a total of 2 to 5 inches is expected in the southern Adirondacks with locally higher amounts possible in the northern chimney of Herkimer County where lake enhancements come into play. Up to 1 to 3 inches of snow expected in the southern Greens and with froude numbers mainly in the 1 to 2 range during the period, most snow accumulations likely occur along the spine of the mountain range. Otherwise, gusty west-northwest winds gradually weaken overnight and temperatures turn chilly dropping into the low to mid 30s with mid to upper 20s in the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key messages: - Dry and trending warmer Thursday and Friday, but rain is likely over the weekend with a cold frontal passage. Discussion: Long term period begins at 12z Thursday with deterministic and ensemble guidance in good agreement that upper troughing will be departing off to our east, with upper ridging and surface high pressure building towards the region from the west. With large-scale subsidence in place, Thursday should be mostly dry and a few to several degrees warmer than Wednesday with highs ranging from 40s (terrain) to 50s (valleys). The pressure gradient remains fairly tight across our region with the surface high still to our west Thursday, so we conditions will remain breezy with W/NW wind gusts to around 25 mph. The surface high moves overhead Thursday night, leading to efficient radiational cooling conditions and with lows in the 20s to 30s. Friday remains mostly, but a few afternoon showers can`t be ruled out ahead of our next weather system. It will also be warmer, with more seasonable temperatures and highs in the low 60s for valley areas as we get into more low- level warm advection and southwest flow on the backside of the departing surface high. Friday night through Saturday night...Guidance continues to come into better agreement that upper troughing tracking through southern Canada will partially phase with an upper shortwave tracking across the midwest and towards the Ohio Valley during this timeframe. The result will be a surface low tracking through to our west Friday night near the Great Lakes, then tracking north of our region through southeastern Canada Saturday into Saturday night. This will allow for a warm front to lift northwards Friday night. Low and mid- level warm advection will likely result in at least some scattered showers Friday night, with the highest chances in the southern ADKs where there low-level upslope enhancement tends to occur. Friday night will be warmer, with lows mainly in the 40s. Exactly how far north the warm front lifts Saturday remains a point of uncertainty, but will have big implications for our sensible weather. For areas south of the front in the warm sector, temperatures could reach into the mid 70s, with generally dry conditions for much of the day. The highest chance for this happening in our area is towards the I-84 corridor. For areas that remain north of the warm front, there will be more clouds and showers with temperatures in the 50s. This is more likely to happen in the ADKs and southern Greens. Then, Saturday afternoon or evening, the system`s cold front is expected to track through the region with an additional round of scattered showers. Lows Saturday night drop back into the 30s to 40s. While forecast confidence is low to moderate for this timeframe, the details should hopefully come into better focus over the next few days. Sunday and Sunday night...Mainly dry conditions expected as the cold front settles to the south of our region and we see low-level cold advection. High pressure builds in from the west, but ahead of this surface high we could see breezy conditions Sunday. It will be cooler with highs Sunday mainly in the 50s to around 60, and overnight lows generally in the 30s. The CPC continues to lean towards above normal temperatures and near normal precip for days 8- 14. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z Tuesday...Any fog/mist should dissipate by the start of the TAF period this morning, with VFR conditions prevailing well into this evening. A few high clouds this morning will give way to increasing afternoon and evening mid and high clouds. Scattered showers are expected overnight tonight, and within showers MVFR vsby reductions will be possible. Still low confidence on coverage and exact timing of showers. Have used prob30 groups to indicate this, but some adjustments to the timing of the prob30s groups may be needed with subsequent TAF issuances. While showers become less numerous towards the end of the TAF period, cigs continue to lower to MVFR levels for the last few hours of the TAF valid period. Winds increase from light and variable this morning to 5-10 kt from the south this afternoon, and remain at 5-10 kt from the south for most of the rest of the TAF period, except for towards 12z Tuesday when winds diminish to 5 kt or less. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...KL/Main