508
FXUS61 KALY 241508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1008 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers and flurries will diminish this
afternoon, as dry conditions return regionwide tonight through
Friday. Temperatures will remain chilly through the end of the week,
but will gradually moderate such that near normal to slightly above
normal levels are reached by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
* Key Message: Winter Weather Advisory continues until 1 pm for
  Bennington County.

.UPDATE...As of 1007 AM EST...The Winter Weather Advisory for
the southern and western Adirondacks, as well as the western
Mohawk Valley was canceled. Additional scattered snow showers
and flurries will produce little to no accumulation. The winter
weather advisory was continued for Bennington County and the
southern Greens until 1 pm for 1 to 2 inches of snow
accumulations, as some westerly upslope enhancement will occur
off the southern Greens. The low to mid level trough axis and a
cold front will slide across the region in the late morning into
the afternoon with a partial clearing and a shift of the winds
to the west. Highs are expected in the 20s to lower 30s over the
higher terrain and mainly lower to mid 30s in the valley areas.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [626 am EST]...Be advised that travel this
morning will likely be slick where roads are snow covered. Use
caution while driving especially if visibility becomes impacted
within a batch of heavier snowfall.

Upon the exit of the warm front later this morning, the parent
low will swiftly track through the region, bringing a
reinforcement of cooler air with its attendant cold front. The
upper shortwave trough will gradually rotate through the region
in close succession to the exit of the low with flow becoming
northwesterly. With the warm-advected environment in the wake of
the warm front and ample cloud cover around, high temperatures
today will feel much more mild in comparison to recent days with
upper 20s to low/mid 30s expected across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned shortwave will continue its rotation through
the region to completion tonight, yielding increasing
geopotential height in its wake as upper-level ridging and
surface high pressure builds in from the west. Low temperatures
tonight will fall to the low to upper 10s across much of the
region with single digits likely in the Southwest Adirondacks
and Southern Greens. Upper-level ridging and surface high
pressure remain in place through Wednesday, allowing tranquil
conditions to persist. High temperatures Wednesday will be
chilly once again courtesy of north to northwesterly flow
advecting cold aid into the region from southeast Canada. expect
values in the mid 20s to low 30s.

The remainder of the short term period will also see dry
conditions, though went above guidance on cloud cover Wednesday
night into Thursday due to another shortwave disturbance
rotating through the region. Though this feature is moisture
starved, moist antecedent low-levels will ensure moisture
becomes trapped under a developing inversion such that skies
become partly to mostly cloudy. But once this disturbance exits
to our south and east Thursday afternoon, clouds begin to
dissipate and skies will gradually become mainly clear. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be similar, though a few
degrees cooler than tonight. Thursday`s highs will be similar to
Wednesday`s before lows fall to the low/mid 10s to single
digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

 - Dry conditions with temperatures returning to near normal Friday-
Saturday.
 - Increasing chances for precipitation (40-60%, mainly as rain) and
above normal temperatures Sunday-Monday.
 - Some potential for heavy rainfall Monday-Monday Night.

High pressure should bring generally dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures for Friday into Saturday. Clouds gradually increase
Saturday in advance of warm advective regime approaching from
southwest.

Developing southwest flow aloft looks to bring increasing moisture
for Sunday into Monday as upper level disturbances approach within
this flow. Chances for rain increase, especially by late Sunday into
Monday where 40-60% PoPs are indicated at this time. Temperatures
will become milder, with highs reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s by
Sunday. These milder temperatures should favor mainly rain, although
will have to watch for some slightly colder air trapped in sheltered
northern areas, which could result in some mixed precipitation
including patchy freezing rain Saturday night into early Sunday.

Some Ensembles, particularly ECENS, suggest some potential for heavy
rain Monday-Monday night, with 24-hour probabilities for >1" at 40-
70%, and 24-hour probabilities for 2" as high as 20-40% (mainly in
eastern Catskills) through 06Z/Tue, so trends will need to be
watched as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of light to moderate snow will taper off from NW to SE
across the TAF sites through 14Z/Tue, with Vsbys trending from
IFR to MVFR/VFR. However, residual low clouds and MVFR Cigs may
persist much of the day and into this evening with the
exception of VFR conditions developing this afternoon at KPOU. A
few flurries/light snow showers may also occur this afternoon,
particularly at KPSF. Additional MVFR Cigs are expected to
redevelop tonight. Should MVFR Cigs have less coverage than
anticipated, then some patchy freezing fog might develop after
07Z/Wed, especially at KGFL and KALB.

South to southwest winds 5-10 KT will shift into the west to
northwest later this morning into this afternoon at 5-10 KT,
then become north to northwest at less than 5 KT this afternoon
and tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VTZ013.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL