452 FXUS61 KBOX 021049 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 649 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil weather today with temperatures rebounding back toward seasonable levels. Quiet and warm stretch of weather through late week, a few locations could approach the lower 90s. A pop-up shower or storm is possible Thursday afternoon, a better chance for storms and showers late Friday or early Saturday with a cold front passage. Temperatures trend seasonable next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Dry, mostly sunny, and warmer. With the arrival of meteorological summer comes a much improved stretch of weather starting today, though it will still be a transition day. This is because the mid level trough continues to be very slow to move off. The trough will act on some moisture around 800 mb and lead to widespread diurnal cumulus clouds mixing with our sunny skies. We`ll begin a steady warm up as well, with 850 mb temps rising to +6C which should lead to highs today in the low to mid 70s. The only exception will be in south coast and Cape Cod where onshore flow keeps temps in the 60s. Tonight proper high pressure moves overhead allowing the boundary layer to decouple, so a combo of calm wind and clear skies may allow temps to dip a bit more in the spots that typically radiate well; generally looking at lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and warmer. The warm up continues as mid level ridging arrives pushing 850 mb temps up to 10-11C as heights are on the rise. This will translate to high temperatures in the afternoon in the upper 70s and low 80s. The warmest spot will be the Connecticut Valley where light downslope flow will exacerbate warming a bit while the coolest spot will again be the Cape and islands. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Taste of summer with rising temperatures and increasing humidity. * Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Wednesday through Friday. * A pop-up shower or storm is possible Thursday afternoon, a better chance for storms and showers late Friday or early Saturday with a cold front passage. * Temperatures trend seasonable for next weekend. No significant changes, those seeking summer weather will enjoy this upcoming week! Ridge of high pressure settles in transporting a much warmer air mass into southern New England. 850mb temperatures soar during the mid and late week, and are between +16C and +19C! BUFKIT continues to indicate a well-mixed boundary layer, able to tap into those warmer conditions Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Not to go out of order, but Thursday is likely to be the warmest day as highs away from the coast top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Places like the immediate coast, Cape Cod, and islands remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s. In addition, dewpoints are well in the low 60s so it will feel humid as well. Wednesday and Friday are similar, cooler than Thursday, but still plenty warm! Highs away from the coast are in the middle and upper 80s on Wednesday and Friday! Cannot rule out a few areas nearing the 90 degree mark, Merrimack Valley and lower Connecticut River Valley. Coastal areas, Cape Cod, and islands are in the lower to middle 70s. There will be little nighttime relief Wednesday and Thursday night, nighttime low are in the low to middle 60s. A cold front late week brings relief, but uncertainty with the timing remains. Heading towards the weekend do expect temperatures to lower, but will still be seasonably warm in the upper 70s and lower 80s. This is supported by NBM (QMD) with probabilities of 90F or greater on Wednesday and Friday are between 40% and 60% for the Connecticut River Valley, Merrimack Valley and Metro Boston. On Thursday, those values increase to 85% and higher. Even further south, cities like Taunton and Providence have values 60% to 75% of high temperature on Thursday exceeding 90F. At this time the NWS HeatRisk map indicates a large swath of southern New England under moderate category, this level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts possible in some health systems and in heat-sensitive industries. Next chance for pop-up showers will be Thursday, with greater chance of showers and thunderstorms with a cold front late in the week. For now, the front looks to come late Friday or Saturday. With the heat and humidity, there should be a fair amount of SBCAPE, GFS shows values in the neighborhood of ~1500 J/kg, but not much shear. CIPS and CSU machine-learning have lower probabilities for Thursday and Friday for severe weather, less than 15% on Thursday, and then less than 30% on Friday. Depending on the evolution of the front, could lead to unsettled conditions spilling over to Saturday. Will need to monitor this closely given the amount of outdoor events. Thankfully there is pounds of time for changes and to monitor this part of the forecast, believe me, this forecaster is also tried of the rainy weekend vibe that we`ve come accustom to here in southern New England. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update: Today: High confidence. VFR. W/SW winds 5 to 10 kts. Localized sea breezes could develop along the east coast but more than likely that they don`t. Tonight: High Confidence VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming calm. Tuesday: High Confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds. BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. BDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. SW winds at 5-10 knots. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tranquil boating conditions expected today through Tuesday with west/southwest winds 10-15 kt and seas 3 ft or less all waters. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley NEAR TERM...BW SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...Dooley AVIATION...BW/Dooley MARINE...BW/Dooley