130 FXUS61 KOKX 021522 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1122 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Another surface trough will track across the area later this afternoon into this evening, otherwise high pressure will build in from the south and west through tonight. High pressure will then be centered along the eastern seaboard on Tuesday, tracking slowly east through midweek. A cold front will slowly approach the area Thursday through Friday, finally passing on Saturday. High pressure builds in on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast on track. Minimal changes made to the forecast grids through early this evening. Today will be the last day to contend with an upper trough as it works offshore late tonight. Another shortwave on the backside of the trough will drop across the eastern Great Lakes and into the area this afternoon/evening, sending another surface trough across the area. While the airmass is dry, would not be totally surprised to see a brief pop up shower or sprinkle, but confidence is too low to add to the forecast at this time. Expect to see some high based stratocu this afternoon into early this evening with skies at times becoming partly cloudy. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s, which is close to normal. Locations along the immediate south shore of LI may not get out of the 60s with a weak onshore southerly flow developing by this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s inland and across the Pine Barrens region of LI, with the 50s elsewhere. This is at or just below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An anomalously warm upper ridge (+2SD) builds across the eastern third of the country bringing a taste of summertime to the area. Highs on Tuesday will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but for Wednesday warming to around 80 at the coast and the mid to upper 80s across parts of the NYC metro and inland locations. The latter is about 7 to 10 degrees above normal. NBM probabilities for greater than 90 highest across NE NJ Wednesday at around 50 percent. NBM box and whisker plots for max temperature show the deterministic values to still be at or below the 25th percentile. This would lead one to believe that temperatures could be a few degrees warmer, closer to the 50th percentile. However, not seeing much support at this time from MOS guidance. So for the time have stayed the course. Winds during this time will generally be southerly at or below 10 mph. Expect few if any clouds with upper ridging and subsidence across the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure over the area centered just offshore to the south loses its hold on the region as it moves much farther to the south through Thursday. A ridge aloft Wednesday night also begins to break down, becoming more zonal aloft on Thursday. Despite this, heights remain high, so a warming trend is still expected. Highs on Thursday will push 90 degrees in areas N & W of NYC with low to mid-80s at the coast. The NBM deterministic is lower with high temps than the 25th percentile. The 75th percentile reaches the mid/upper-90s in NE NJ. Stuck closer to the deterministic NBM with this one. A shortwave trough being resolved by most global models should push through in the afternoon with a surface trough increasing cloud cover enough over areas N & W of the city to partially shut off some radiational heating. There is also a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening given the nearby boundary and warmer temps in the interior, but chances aren`t looking overly optimistic. Precip chances increase Friday into Saturday as heights gradually drop aloft from a longwave trough in Canada and a low over the Great Lakes on Friday passes NE of the area on Saturday sending a cold front through the CWA Saturday afternoon/evening. Chance POPs are expected on Friday from showers and thunderstorms with highs in the low/mid-80s, limited at some coastal areas in the 70s. Rain chances may continue into the night with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms due to enhanced lift (and still warm temperatures) with the cold front later on Saturday. This will be the final round of rain with high pressure building into the beginning of next week following the cold frontal passage. There is some timing discrepancy with the models with this front, so have carried slight chance POPs into Saturday night for a slow/weaker cold front scenario. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR for the TAF period. NW winds of 5-10 kt are expected. Local sea breezes expected at coastal terminals mainly in the afternoon, with peak winds around 11 kt. By the evening and early night, winds begin to turn more N/NNW around 5 kt or less and remain so into the night. Rinse and repeat tomorrow with more sea breezes expected in the afternoon. Elevated smoke from Canadian wildfires may be observed aloft, but will not impact surface visibility. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...Potential for MVFR in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Friday...Possible MVFR in afternoon showers/tstms. && .MARINE... Expect sub-SCA conditions through Friday as waters will be largely influenced by high pressure and a southerly flow. SCA conditions are forecasted to be met Saturday into Saturday night with an approaching and passing cold front on the ocean waters for waves. All waters also have a chance of nearing SCA gusts during this timeframe. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BR/DW NEAR TERM...JM/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...BR MARINE...BR/DW HYDROLOGY...BR/DW