869 FXUS61 KOKX 110551 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 151 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the coast will give way to a weakening low approaching from the west overnight. Another low developing over the Mid Atlantic region on Friday will pass south and east of Long Island on Saturday. The low will slowly drift farther out to sea on Sunday, with weak high pressure building in through Monday. A frontal system will approach from the west Monday night, with a cold frontal passage expected late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Another cold front will move through Tuesday night. High pressure will remain centered to the west thereafter through next Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Pops adjusted for the fact that much of the radar returns have been unable to reach the ground due to dry air in the BL. Isolated areas of -SHRA and possible -RASN mix for interior portions of the area possible but much of the area through the morning is expected to remain dry. Low temps tonight will be mostly in the middle 30s to around 40, with some lower 30s well inland NW of NYC. Closer to 40 for the metro. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As the low develops over the Mid Atlantic region, chances for rain will increase through the day on Fri. Best chances for rain still look to be from Fri night into early Sat morning as the low passes to the SE, and once again temps inland may be marginal and allow for a rain/snow mix and some light accumulation. A persistent NW flow gusting to 25 mph should develop Fri night and continue into Sat, then back N Sat night as the low then starts to pull out into the Atlantic. It will remain cool with highs only in the 40s, and lows mostly 35-40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lingering showers for eastern areas expected for Sunday as the coastal low is slow to move away from the area with an omega block over much of the CONUS, with a building ridge over the mid-West. With more in the way of clouds than sun and northerly flow, temperatures will be seasonably cool, with highs in the 50s for much of the area. Eastern areas may stay in the upper 40s for highs thanks to rain and cloud cover. Deep layered ridging sets up as weak high pressure builds in at the surface and the upper level ridge moves toward the region on Monday. Expect dry conditions and generally seasonably warm temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 60s away from the coast, and upper 50s to around 60 along the coast. The next chance for light showers comes Monday night as a warm front approaches. The looks to become warm sectored Monday night, with the associated cold front moving through early Tuesday morning. Lows Monday night will be warm with the southerly flow set up over the area. Lows in the middle 40s to around 50 are expected. Highs will be similar to Monday. Showers taper off Tuesday with the passage of the cold front and weak high pressure building in thereafter. A secondary cold front moves through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but there isn`t much moisture associated with this feature, and it looks to push through dry. With high pressure building in and high pressure remaining to the west of the region through next Thursday, an return to more normal temperature for this time of year is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure with a surface trough nearby to the west gives way to low pressure approaching from the south tonight. VFR gives way to MVFR towards 09z, with pockets of IFR developing 12-15z. Mainly dry until around 0z Saturday when rain pushes in from the south. E winds around 10 kt, backing more ENE and increasing a little this afternoon along with gusts around 20 kt. Winds back further NE this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional gusts around 20kt possible at KJFK through this morning. Light showers possible until around 15z, but likely without VSBY restrictions. Timing of MVFR onset may be off by 1-2 hours. Chance that IFR doesn`t occur this morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Late tonight: MVFR in rain. Chance of IFR. ENE flow 10-20kt, gusts to 25 kt possible at coast / city terminals. Saturday: MVFR or lower. Rain likely. NE winds 10-20 kt gusts to 25 kt possible. Sunday: VFR with pockets of MVFR with N winds. Monday: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, W-NW winds. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch issued for the ocean waters for Fri night-Sat as persistent NE flow may gust as high as 35 kt, especially late Fri night into Sat morning. Ocean seas during this time should build to 6-9 ft. SCA also issued for the non ocean waters Fri night into Sat with NE winds gusting to 25-30 kt. Before the gale watch, SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters for Fri afternoon, as winds/seas start to surpass 25 kt and 5 ft respectively. SCA cond should continue on the ocean and the ern Sound/bays into Sat night, then on the ocean waters on Sunday, with gusts 25-30 kt. Seas 4-6 ft are forecast for all ocean waters on Sunday which are expected to slowly diminish through the day, but remain above 5 ft through the day. Thereafter, SCA conditions are not expected until possibly Tuesday when winds may approach 25 kt, especially western coastal zones with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... QPF from tonight through Saturday night has trended downward, averaging around an inch for most places. Long duration of this rainfall should preclude any impacts. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks in parts of the NY Harbor area with the high tide cycle tonight and Sat night due to persistent onshore flow and tidal piling. This may occur on the back bays of Nassau tonight as well. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/JP NEAR TERM...JE/BG SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JC/JE MARINE...BG/JP HYDROLOGY...BG/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...