924
FXUS61 KOKX 111939
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains nearby tonight. A cold front approaches
on Thursday and swings through Thursday night. The front then stalls
nearby or just to the south during Friday into Saturday and will
slowly work south into the Mid Atlantic into early next week.
Waves of low pressure will track along the boundary during this
time. The front will then return northward as a warm front toward
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains nearby tonight to the south and
southwest. This should provide primarily clear skies. With a weak
pressure gradient expect light winds mainly out of the SW.
Temperatures should be close to normal, perhaps a couple of degrees
above normal. With the lack of an onshore wind component overall,
there should be enough of a temperature and dew point separation to
preclude fog development, although locally a little patchy fog
cannot be completely ruled with night time minimums mainly in the
60s.

Weak high pressure then drifts further east to our south on
Thursday, with a cold front approaching from the west-northwest in
the afternoon. It will be a moderately humid day with dewpoints
primarily in the lower 60s with the region just south of the polar
jet. BUFKIT forecast soundings are suggestive of at least a
conditional convective chance, especially for the western half of
the area later in the day and early evening. Moderate CAPE profiles
are evident with over 1000 J/kg of CAPE for many sites, with lower
CAPE further east. Would have to get parcel to 5 kft to enable
lifting above the LFC. Exact timing and placement of the approach of
the cold frontal boundary will dictate where and exactly when
convection will try to initiate. The conditionality with respect to
convective chances comes from signs of warmer air in the mid levels
and some potential capping. If the capping is weaker or non-existant
than a few strong to severe storms would be possible with the jet
just to the north and 40 kt bulk shear in place. Thus, if convective
initiation is achieved, then the potential for storm organization
and maintenance would be high. For now will hold off on any enhanced
wording due to the high conditionality of any convection and carry
slight chance and isolated wording for the late afternoon and
evening. Look for a noticeably warmer day overall with daytime
maximums primarily in the 80s region wide, with some spots in urban
NE NJ getting to 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Thursday night the cold front is progged to push through as the
shortwave feature gets further east and in its wake later at night
surface high pressure attempts to ridge down from the northwest out
of Canada. Carry slight chance PoPs early on with showers and
isolated thunder chances, with skies later on going partly cloudy to
mostly clear on a light NW to N flow. With the light wind behind the
boundary if any convection did occur some localized patchy fog would
be possible late where any rain or convection occurred, but due to
the high conditionality of any previous shower or convective
activity have chosen to keep any patchy fog wording out of the
forecast for the time being. Dewpoint readings should drop some by
early Friday morning into the middle and upper 50s, thus some drop
in humidity levels is expected.

A sunny start is expected during Friday with weak sfc ridging
working in during the morning. However, the cold front which moved
through Thursday night is not progged to get very far to the south
and is expected to stall nearby, perhaps just to the immediate
south. This scenario would likely set up an light onshore flow,
especially during the afternoon along and north of the boundary. Any
light onshore flow would keep temperatures somewhat cooler from the
previous day. There is a chance that the flow will be quite weak and
won`t really penetrate much inland. Thus temperatures should be able
to reach the 80s, perhaps middle 80s inland during the day Friday.
Coastal sections are likely to be in the upper half of the 70s to
around 80, thus closer to normal. A mid-level shortwave is forecast
to approach later in the day and evening. This could trigger some
shower activity late in the day and evening. Thus have re-introduced
slight chance PoPs across far western sections late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast area during this time will reside on the southern edge
of the westerlies which is likely to keep the area unsettled into
early next week. A frontal boundary just south of the area on
Saturday will settle slowly south into the Mid Atlantic states into
early next week before returning northward mid week.
The challenging part of the forecast is timing of frontal waves
along the boundary and the associated rainfall. Airmass is
marginally unstable over the weekend along with PWAT values
approaching 2 inches. Thus, there could be some downpours, but by no
means will it be raining all the time. Forecast running with chance
PoPs (30-50%)over the weekend into early next week with a chance of
showers and embedded thunderstorms. Shortwave energy passing to the
north on Sunday will be followed by high pressure building across
eastern Canada and into the Northeast. This looks to push the front
farther south into Monday with even some drying of the airmass.
Airmass should be stable enough to limit convection to mainly
showers at this time. 12Z global models are in good agreement taking
low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast early Tuesday, passing to
the south and east. Forecast area will be on the northern periphery
of the system and may be far enough removed from the stratiform rain
shield. Rain chances will be lower during this time.

Temperatures Saturday through Monday will trend down through the 70s
and in some cases may struggle to get above 70 with an easterly flow
and cloud cover. Temperatures will then begin to climb back up to
normal by Tuesday and even above by Wednesday as heights begin to
rise and the front starts returning northward as a warm front. Lows
will be close to normal, but night will be humid with dew points
around 60. NBM box and whisker temperatures plot shows large
difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles from Saturday into
Tuesday, likely due timing of the frontal waves and rain.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight. A weak
cold front slowly approaches from the northwest on Thursday.

VFR through the TAF period.

W-SW winds 10-13 kt this afternoon with SSW sea breezes at coastal
terminals. Gusts 17-20 kt possible through 22-23z, mainly away from
the coast. SW winds weaken under 10 kt overnight. A W-WNW flow
develops Thursday morning and increases into the early afternoon,
becoming 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. The flow may
start backing to the SW near the coast early afternoon.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance sea breeze reaches LGA early this evening.

Isolated shower/thunderstorm possible Thursday afternoon and early
evening.

Timing of afternoon sea breeze Thursday at JFK may be off by 1-3
hours.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Afternoon-Night: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with showers and a few
thunderstorms possible.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers with thunder
possible.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions are anticipated in the near and short term
for all waters. Across far eastern portions of the ocean there will
be 4 ft and just under 5 ft seas at times for a portion of tonight.
Otherwise seas gradually decline to 2 to 3 ft by Thursday afternoon,
and closer to 2 ft into Friday.

With a weak pressure gradient force expected across the forecast
waters, as a frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the ocean
waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels from
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the short term, other than
the low chance of some nuisance urbanized minor flooding in
association with an isolated thunderstorm late Thursday. Showers and
embedded thunderstorms may produce localized heavy rainfall on
Saturday. WPC has portions of the area under a marginal risk of
excessive flooding. This represents a low probability of flash
flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk for rip current development remains through
this evening at ocean beaches.

The moderate risk for rip current development continues Thursday
at ocean beaches.

The main driving influence will be southwest flow near 5 to 10
kts as well as lingering onshore swell of around 4 ft on average
and period of 7-8 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
     Thursday night for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...