521
FXUS61 KALY 071040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
640 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move east across the region into
this morning, with showers ending once the cold front passes
through. Cooler and mostly drier weather will take hold through
the rest of the work week. A few disturbances passing through
Tuesday into Wednesday will bring chances for showers, mainly
near and north of Interstate 90.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...After a lull in the shower activity the past several
hours, radar indicating showers re- developing just ahead of a
cold front pushing eastward from central NY as it encounters
better moisture south/east of Albany. Just made some minor
changes to bring forecast in line with current obs/trends.
Overall no significant changes with this update.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0354]...Mainly scattered showers will continue
to push eastward along a cold front and upper level short wave
trough moving from eastern NY into western New England. Will
mention the greatest PoPs (50-70%) for areas east of the Hudson
Valley early this morning, then diminishing by mid morning as
the system shifts well east into New England. Cooler and drier
NW flow will develop in wake of the cold front with wind gusts
of 20-25 mph mainly down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital
District and Berkshires this afternoon. Highs will be slightly
cooler than recent days as cold advection commences, with
mid/upper 60s in lower elevations and mid/upper 50s in the
higher terrain. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny this
afternoon, with the most clouds over the higher terrain.

Surface ridging looks to build in from the south/west this
evening, providing dry conditions and clearing skies. However,
the next short wave trough will be quickly approaching from the
Great Lakes late tonight. This system may get close enough for a
few showers over the W. Adirondacks just prior to sunrise.
There may be some patchy frost in outlying areas west/east of
the Hudson Valley, but there should be just enough of a breeze
to preclude widespread frost over these higher terrain areas.
Lows expected to range from mid/upper 30s in the Adirondacks to
lower 40s in the Hudson valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The main feature during this period will be a broad upper level
trough settling in across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a
few disturbances passing through the mean trough. This will
result in below normal temperatures and periodic chances for a
few showers. The first disturbance looks to push through on Tue,
bringing isolated to scattered showers to areas from around
Albany north/west. Any rainfall will be light and brief. There
will be persistent W-NW breeze, but with gusts mainly less than
20 mph. High temperatures should be appreciably below normal for
the first time in a while, with highs in the 50s across the
higher terrain and lower/mid 60s in the valleys.

Small/brief ridging extending north/east from high pressure
centered over the central Appalachians will provide mainly clear
skies and decreasing winds. This could result in more
widespread coverage of frost in higher terrain areas such as the
S. Green mountains, Taconics and E. Catskills as temperatures
potentially drop into the mid 30s. If confidence increases, a
frost advisory may eventually be needed. Outside of the higher
terrain, low temperatures should mainly be in the upper 30s to
around 40.

The next short wave trough looks to move across the area on
Wed, bringing isolated to scattered showers again from around
Albany and especially north/west where lake effect moisture will
be present. Highs expected to be below normal with upper 40s to
lower 50s in the mountains with upper 50s to lower 60s in the
lower elevations.

Guidance indicating an even stronger short wave quickly
approaching from the Great Lakes and SE Canada moving through
Wed night. Again, coverage of showers looks isolated to
scattered with better chances over the Adirondacks. Strong cold
advection and a cold pool aloft (850 and 500 mb temperature
anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) moving in with the trough could
result in some wet snow flakes mixing in over the highest
elevations late. Low temperatures will be quite cool again
ranging from lower/mid 30s in the mountains to upper 30s to
lower 40s in the valleys. Cloud cover and/or a more persistent
breeze should limit frost formation though.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Crisp autumn mornings in store through the end of the work
  week

- A warmer than normal Saturday, with high temperatures 5 to 10
  degrees above normal

- Dry and breezy conditions into the weekend with chances of
  rain for Sunday (15-30%)

Discussion:

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging is currently
favored by ensemble forecast models to build back into the
Northeast Thursday and continue through Saturday. While ensemble
models have uncertainty Saturday night into Sunday on the
position of upper level troughing and how far south it could go,
there are chances of rain showers for Sunday. At this forecast
time period, probabilities are between 15 and 30 percent for
locations north and west of Albany of showers occurring with at
least a trace of precipitation.

National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2 latest data suggests
Thursday morning has chances (75%) of temperatures reaching
below 32 degrees across higher terrain of the western
Adirondacks, Catskills, and western New England. Elsewhere,
probabilities are greater than 75 percent for lows to reach less
than 40 degrees. Crisp autumn mornings could be observed
through at least Friday this week with lows in the upper 30s and
low 40s. For high temperatures, low 50s to low 60s could be
observed Wednesday through Friday as probabilities are greater
than 75 percent for high temperatures to reach less than 65
degrees through the end of the work week. A warmer day could be
in store for Saturday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s
for valleys as probabilities are greater than 85 percent for
temperatures in the 70s for the valley locations, which is
between 5 and 10 degrees above normal for mid-October.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday... A cold front continues to move through
eastern New York and western New England through this morning.
Vicinity showers can be observed through 14z, with higher
confidence for KGFL and KPSF to see impactful shower activity
that can reduce visibility to less than 8 miles in mist/light
rain. VFR conditions returns during the 12z and 18z timeframe.
Winds continue to be periodically gusty at KALB through this
morning before increasing this afternoon. Winds then increase
this afternoon between 15 and 25 knots for KALB and KPOU.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Webb