323
FXUS61 KOKX 280041
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
841 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system moves through the area tonight. High
pressure then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday, moving
offshore Tuesday night. A cold front approaches Wednesday into
Wednesday night and moves across the area Thursday. High
pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Friday into next
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
For this update have kept a slight chance PoPs around for a few
hours later into the evening, mainly for S and SE portions of
the area. Therefore a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm
through mid evening. Otherwise, heights begin to rise late
tonight/toward 12Z Monday as ridging builds into the region.
Heat begins to build late tonight as warmer air begins to move
in behind the frontal system. And overnight lows will be several
degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
* Heat and humidity builds on Monday and continues into at least
Tuesday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire
area, Monday and Tuesday, and was extended through Wednesday.
Weak upper ridging aloft builds through Monday and then remains
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the area remaining on the
eastern edge of the upper ridge. Monday 850mb temperatures rise
to near 19C and remain into Monday night. Tuesday 850mb
temperatures rise a couple more degrees, to around 21C. Surface
highs Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s. At this time no
records are expected. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer with
highs in the mid to upper 90s, potentially hitting 100 across
portions of Northeastern New Jersey. A couple of record high
temperatures are possible. See the CLIMATE section for details.
The combination of high dew points Monday, around 70, and mixing
out to the upper 60s during the afternoon across northeastern
New Jersey, will produce heat indices of 95 to around 104. The
higher temperatures Tuesday with similar dew points will
result in heat indices of 97 to 104. A few locations may reach
105, however, with the limited areal coverage a Heat Warning is
not expected to be needed.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
*Once more day of heat and humidity is expected on Wednesday with
max heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. The heat advisory has
been extended through early Wednesday evening.
*An approaching cold front brings chances for showers and
thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday. The front likely sags
south on Thursday, but a frontal wave may bring a continued
chance of showers into the evening.
*High pressure builds towards the area Friday and settles over the
region next weekend bringing cooler temperatures and low humidity
levels.
Latest trends indicate ridging aloft holding on through
Wednesday afternoon. This has lead to a trend up with
temperatures and resulting heat indices. Given fairly high
confidence heat indices will at least reach or exceed 95 across
much of the area, have extended the heat advisory. Heat indices
may peak in the low 100s in the normally warm spots, but do not
think they will get as high as extreme heat warning criteria.
A cold front approaches late Wednesday and will move across the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible with the front. There is still low confidence with
severe potential, but a few strong storms with heavy downpours
cannot be ruled out Wednesday evening. A frontal wave may form
on the front Thursday as it shifts through the area, which would
continue the potential of showers and a few thunderstorms
through Thursday evening. There are still mixed signals
regarding the exact track of the wave, but there has been a
trend towards being located close enough to the coast to support
showers through Thursday evening, potentially even a portion of
Thursday night.
An anomalously strong upper trough follows for Friday pushing
the front well offshore and allowing sprawling high pressure to
build over the region through next weekend. Temperatures will be
much cooler, generally in the upper 70s to low 80s Friday and
Saturday with a slight uptick next Sunday, but still seasonable.
Humidity levels will be held down with a dry air mass
accompanying the high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary passes through the area overnight.
Mainly VFR, expect IFR to start at KISP and KGON, which will
see improvement later tonight as some drier air filters into the
low levels behind the front.
Light S/SW winds will veer around to N/NW overnight. Northerly
flow at less than 10 kt Monday will be overtaken by seabreezes
at the coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Spotty shower possible through about 02Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday - Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the day and at night.
Wed Night thru Thursday: Showers with MVFR possible.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels tonight through
Wednesday. A cold front moves across the waters Wednesday night
through Thursday. An increasing pressure gradient behind the
front will bring the next chance of SCA conditions into Friday,
mainly on the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the day Wednesday.
Locally heavy downpours are possible Wednesday evening into
Thursday, but potential impacts are uncertain at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches
Monday and Tuesday with only 1 to 2 feet offshore wave heights
and the absence of a wind wave contribution.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The following are record high temperatures for July 28
Newark 101/1949
Bridgeport 95/1949
Central Park *97/1999
LaGuardia 98/1949
Kennedy 98/1949
Islip 96/1999
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
The following are record high temperatures for July 29
Newark 100/1949
Bridgeport 96/2002
Central Park 99/1949
LaGuardia 97/1949
Kennedy 99/2002
Islip 96/2002
The following are record high minimum temperatures for Monday, July
28th through Wednesday, July 30th. Currently the forecast reflects
that records will be approached at some of our climate sites with
respect to the minimum temperatures.
Record Minimum Temperatures for Monday, July 28th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2020)
LaGuardia...........83 (2020)
Kennedy.............79 (2020)
Islip...............77 (2020)
Newark..............80 (2020)
Bridgeport..........77 (2020)
Record Minimum Temperatures for Tuesday, July 29th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........79 (2002)
LaGuardia...........82 (2002)
Kennedy.............76 (2022,2002,1995,1949)
Islip...............77 (1995)
Newark..............79 (2002)
Bridgeport..........78 (1995)
Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2002)
LaGuardia...........81 (2019,2002)
Kennedy.............79 (2006,1995)
Islip...............76 (2002)
Newark..............81 (2002)
Bridgeport..........76 (2002)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
CTZ005>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...