076 FXUS61 KBOX 111911 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 311 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm overall through Friday with breezier conditions Thursday. Although Friday looks to be dry and seasonably mild, we then enter into a cloudy and rather unsettled weather pattern with daily shower or thunderstorm chances, with a weak frontal boundary nearby to Southern New England. Timing and areal coverage details are still uncertain at this time. Temperatures then trend cooler than normal, with high temperatures running some 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Dry and mild tonight Clear skies expected with W to SW flow keeping things dry across the region tonight. Lows expected to primarily be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Warm and dry with breezy conditions Thursday * Dry heading into Friday morning A cold front will move through New England during the afternoon hours and flow aloft shifts more westerly. Some of the high-res guidance is hinting at some isolated showers over CT into parts of southern RI, but the chances remain very low with conditions unfavorable for shower development (and even then, chances continue to trend down with the latest guidance). Height rises aloft and building surface high pressure across southern New England Thursday into Friday morning will help keep the region dry. Winds may gust to 20-30 mph during the day with a well mixed boundary layer. Gusts to 30 mph would be more likely in the higher terrain, but occasional higher gusts in those areas could also occur. Westerly winds expected to prevail through the day with highs in the upper 70s up to the mid 80s. Dry conditions expected to continue heading into tomorrow night with diminishing winds that shift slightly more to the NW. Lows tomorrow night expected to be between the mid 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Seasonably mild and generally dry on Friday. * Unsettled weekend into early next week, and while not necessarily hazardous, daily chances for showers and/or thunderstorms will exist. Timing and areal coverage details remain lower than average. * High temperatures after Friday then trend cooler than normal (around 5-10 degs below normal) for the weekend into early next week with seasonable lows. Details: Global ensemble means continue to offer a broad WNW flow aloft over Southern New England, with a wavy, west-to-east low-level thermal boundary near the vicinity of Southern New England. This boundary slips southward by Sunday, offering a cooler weather pattern as we move into early next week. Overall, this is a generally unsettled weather pattern with daily chances for at least a threat of some showers. Predictability in timing and spatial coverage details of shower and t-storm threats remain lower-than-average, which are sensitive to weak/subtle sub- synoptic-scale features/triggering mechanisms which are poorly resolved by the coarser-resolution global ensembles at this time range. It looks as though Friday remains the driest overall period with reasonably high confidence, but there will be a threat for showers or embedded thunderstorms for the subsequent days. Will need to get into the mesoscale-model range That being said, none of the day(s) look to feature significant or impactful adverse weather. Temperatures on Friday are closer to seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The remaining portion of the forecast then offers generally cloudy conditions and an increasingly onshore flow toward the latter part of the weekend into early next week. Temperatures then trend cooler than normal on high temps (some 5-10 degrees colder than normal) with seasonable low temperatures. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Today...High confidence. VFR. WSW-SW wind 10-20 kt, with occasional gusts to 20 kt for some spots. Smoke may cause hazy skies and possibly some light visby reductions this afternoon Tonight...High confidence. VFR. SW to W wind 5-10 kt. Increasing westerly winds aloft will lead to wind shear concerns across the interior and BOS. Thursday...High confidence. VFR. W wind gusts 20-30 kt developing. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Thursday Night: High Confidence. Persistent SW winds through Thu before shifting more W to NW Thu night. Speeds 10-20 kt through tonight with some 25 kt gusts possible Thu over nearshore waters. Seas range from 2-4 ft across the waters and continue to decrease through the period. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin NEAR TERM...Hrencecin SHORT TERM...Hrencecin LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin