177
FXUS61 KOKX 141005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
605 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure nosing in from the south weakens through the day. A
cold front moves through tonight into Tuesday morning, with a
secondary front passing through Tuesday night. High pressure starts
to gradually build in starting Wednesday. High pressure passes to
the south Thursday and pushes offshore Thursday night. Another
frontal system approaches the region Friday and affects from Friday
night through Saturday night. High pressure returns for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broken line of showers approaching from the west will continue
to dissipate as it nears. Not expecting any measurable rain,
but a sprinkle can not be ruled out for far western locations.

Ridging at the surface and aloft builds in today. While we will
have some mid and high level clouds around, it looks to be a
nice spring day with temperatures back up in the mid to upper
60s (a few degrees warmer than what is normal for mid April) and
light winds.

Given previous cool bias from the NBM on similar spring regimes,
went closer to the NBM 90th percentile. Additionally, how
thick/expansive any cloud cover ends up being will likely affect
the highs a few degrees in either direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights start lowering tonight as an upper level low approaches. An
associated parent surface low will be tracking through southern
Canada, with a cold front draped down into the eastern US. As this
front approaches it looks to become occluded to our north with the
potential for the triple point to pass through the area. This is
evident in gradients in model moisture fields. This frontal system
will spark severe weather in the Ohio Valley today, but by the time
this activity gets to our area it will likely be just rain showers.
This is due to the time of day and lack of any significant
instability. There is however very little elevated CAPE, so a rumble
of thunder can not be completely ruled out.

Heights continue lowering as the mid and upper level trough axis
gets closer on Tuesday. With cooling aloft, instability increases
through the day. This set up usually leads to isolated to scattered
shower activity and the CAMs are agreeing with that. Looking at
model soundings, steep lapse rates and plenty of dry air below
the cloud layer can be seen. This suggests that any stronger
showers could bring down gusty winds and potentially produce graupel.
A rumble of thunder can also not be ruled out, but with low
confidence have continued to leave it out of the forecast for
now. Outside of gusty winds from showers, synoptically the
sustained winds and gusts increase through the day on Tuesday.
Expecting gusts up to 30 go 35 mph.

High pressure starts to gradually build in on Wednesday. With the
colder airmass over the region, highs look to only reach the low
50s. Gusty winds are expected through the afternoon before they
start to decrease.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions continue for Thursday as an upper level east of the
area continues to slowly moves east while a building ridge over the
Great Lakes region and southern Canada moves toward the area. At the
surface, high pressure to the west of the region slides southwest
and pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Thursday night which allows a
warm front to lift north Friday night. This will be be the next
chance for precipitation. However, only light amounts of rain for
Friday night are expected at this time. The associated cold front is
expected to move through on Saturday night and high pressure builds
in behind it for Sunday.

With a building ridge moving into the region Thursday and a warm
front lifting north Friday night, a warming trend through the period
is expected. Temperatures in the 50s and 60s on Thursday will rise
into the 60s and 70s by Saturday for most areas. Cooler conditions
are expected along coastal areas. Cold air advection after the
passage of the cold front will bring temperatures back down to more
seasonable levels for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR as weak weak high pressure builds from the west. A cold front
moves through tonight.

NW winds less than 10 kt should gradually shift to W and then SW by
this morning, and increase to 10-15 kt mainly closer to the coast in
the afternoon, with a more southerly sea breeze possible in spots.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected. Late day, after 20Z, sea breeze
possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tonight: MVFR or possibly lower in showers, mainly late (towards
daybreak Tuesday).

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WNW winds G25-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Friday: VFR. Chance of showers at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. Winds ramp
up Tuesday afternoon and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for
all waters starting at 2PM Tuesday and going through 10AM Wednesday
(and will likely need to be extended through Wednesday). Wind gusts
are expected to reach 25 to 30 kt on all waters. There may be a
brief lull for a few hours around 11PM Tuesday night before winds
ramp back up. Additionally, isolated 35 to 40 kt gusts can not
be ruled out Tuesday afternoon, specifically under any
convective showers that could mix down higher gusts.

As previously mentioned, the SCA will likely need to be extended
through Wednesday. Gusts finally lower Wednesday night, with the
potential for some 5 ft seas lingering in the eastern ocean zone
through the night.

Waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Friday night
with high pressure in control. Winds will remain below 25 kt through
Friday, but may approach 25 kt by late Friday night on the ocean
waters as a frontal system approaches from the west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT