212
FXUS61 KOKX 281753
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
153 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area today and Tuesday, moving
offshore Tuesday night. A cold front approaches Wednesday. The
front moves through Wednesday night, with a frontal wave
developing along it and tracking nearby through Thursday. High
pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Friday into next
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* Today will be the first day of what will be a 3 day heat wave for
much of the region.
* Heat Advisories remain in place today through Wednesday.
Surface high pressure and upper level ridging builds into the
area today. 850mb temperatures climb to 19C for parts of the
area. This should result in surface temperatures reaching the
middle and upper 90s across the NYC/NJ metro area, with lower to
middle 90s across the remainder of the region. The only
exception will be right along the coast across the far eastern
sections of the region, where temperatures may only stay in the
upper 80s. The combination of these temperatures and dew points
once again rising into the middle to upper 60s and lower 70s,
Heat index values should reach the middle and upper 90s to near
100. Otherwise, it will remain dry today, with mostly sunny
skies.
Dry conditions continue into tonight. Overnight temperatures
wont fall much, with lows in the 70s. The warmest spots will be
across the NYC/NJ metro area with upper 70s expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* Heat advisories remain in effect for Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect
Heat index values to be in the middle and upper 90s to lower 100s.
Surface high pressure and upper level ridging continues into Tuesday
and Tuesday night. 850mb temperatures rise a couple more degrees, to
around 21-22 C. Expect surface temperatures to be a few degrees
warmer with highs in the mid to upper 90s, potentially hitting 100
across portions of Northeastern New Jersey. A couple of record high
temperatures are possible. See the CLIMATE section for details. The
higher temperatures Tuesday with similar dew points will result in
heat indices of 95 to 104. A few locations may reach 105, however,
with the limited areal coverage a Heat Warning is not expected to be
needed.
It appears that the ridging aloft will now continue into Wednesday
afternoon. As a result, the heat and humidity should stick into
Wednesday. Once again, we are looking at heat indices reaching
the middle and upper 90s to lower 100s. Still feel that
conditions will remain below extreme heat warning criteria.
A cold front approaches late Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
Confidence not high with respect to the severe potential at this
time, however, any storms that do occur will be capable of heavy
downpours.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:
*Showers and thunderstorms accompany a cold frontal passage
Wednesday night, and some of the thunderstorms could be strong to
severe and produce locally heavy downpours that lead to flooding,
mainly in urban and poor drainage areas.
*Heat breaks behind the front on Thursday, but conditions remain
unsettled with additional showers and thunderstorms likely as a wave
of low pressure develops along the nearby front.
*High pressure builds towards the area Friday and settles over the
region this weekend, bringing drier, cooler conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region today and into Tuesday.
VFR thru the day at all terminals.
N/NW around 10-12 kt will be overtaken by seabreezes at the
coastal terminals this afternoon. Weak flow persists tonight,
and general flow turns westerly Tuesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of seabreezes (southerly winds) may be off by an hour or
two.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late in
the day and at night.
Wed Night thru Thursday: Showers with MVFR possible.
Friday and Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. A
cold front moves across the waters Wednesday night through
Thursday. Increased winds behind the front could allow seas to
build toward 5 ft on the ocean late this week, primarily Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the day Wednesday.
Locally heavy downpours are possible with a cold front and frontal
wave Wednesday afternoon/evening and Thursday, but confidence
in potential impacts remains low at this point.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches
today and Tuesday with only 1 to 2 feet offshore wave heights
and the absence of a wind wave contribution.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The following are record high temperatures for July 28
Newark 101/1949
Bridgeport 95/1949
Central Park *97/1999
LaGuardia 98/1949
Kennedy 98/1949
Islip 96/1999
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
The following are record high temperatures for July 29
Newark 100/1949
Bridgeport 96/2002
Central Park 99/1949
LaGuardia 97/1949
Kennedy 99/2002
Islip 96/2002
The following are record high minimum temperatures for Monday, July
28th through Wednesday, July 30th. Currently the forecast reflects
that records will be approached at some of our climate sites with
respect to the minimum temperatures.
Record Minimum Temperatures for Monday, July 28th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2020)
LaGuardia...........83 (2020)
Kennedy.............79 (2020)
Islip...............77 (2020)
Newark..............80 (2020)
Bridgeport..........77 (2020)
Record Minimum Temperatures for Tuesday, July 29th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........79 (2002)
LaGuardia...........82 (2002)
Kennedy.............76 (2022,2002,1995,1949)
Islip...............77 (1995)
Newark..............79 (2002)
Bridgeport..........78 (1995)
Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2002)
LaGuardia...........81 (2019,2002)
Kennedy.............79 (2006,1995)
Islip...............76 (2002)
Newark..............81 (2002)
Bridgeport..........76 (2002)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$