744 FXUS61 KOKX 101430 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1030 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary frontal boundary across the region through tonight eventually shifts farther south heading into the start of the weekend. High pressure builds east of the waters for the latter half of this weekend before weakening early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Slight adjustments with POPs to better match observed radar reflectivity trends. Shower activity mostly across parts of the eastern section of the region, particularly interior SE Connecticut. Otherwise, forecast on track. A frontal boundary is stalled out across the region. Not much translational movement is expected through today with the front. Weak waves of low pressure travel along it. Right rear quadrant of upper level jet is near the region through today. Mid level positive vorticity advection adds further forcing. POPs for showers and thunderstorms remain through the day. Intermittent nature to the convection. Temperatures today with a slight decrease in 850mb temperatures and more shower and thunderstorm activity, a cooler but still very humid day expected. Added in patchy fog going into early this morning especially in those areas that had more rain and thereby have more moisture laden grounds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The convective coverage will be on a downward trend tonight as forcing decreases with the loss of daytime instability. Upper level forcing decreases with jet streak moving farther northeast of the region tonight. Troughing pattern eventually transitions to more of a ridging pattern. The frontal boundary weakens at the surface and eventually settles to the south of the region by the weekend. The showers and thunderstorms have less coverage Friday and Saturday and will be driven more by the daytime instability and daytime troughing as well as low level convergence. The forcing aloft will be minimal as ridging becomes more apparent. Daytime temperatures on a warming trend but will be limited as flow retains more of an easterly component. Added in patchy fog for late tonight into early Friday morning with less winds and some radiational cooling allow for more low level saturation considering the continued humid environment. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages - Showers and thunderstorms are a daily concern through Monday, thanks to a lingering boundary and plenty of moisture from the onshore flow. Western forecast areas are at the greatest risk, as daytime heating will boost instability. - The greatest uncertainty in the forecast period, particularly for temperatures and PoPs, remains Sunday through Monday. This is attributed to the varied handling of a weak frontal system by the ensembles. - Next week, temperatures are expected to warm up, reaching the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s. ML guidance is hinting at a low (10-30%) threat for severe weather that will need to be monitored, along with a frontal system late in the week. No major changes made to the NBM. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A stationary front remains near the terminals through tonight, then shifts south of the area on Friday. Mainly VFR with MVFR across Long Island east of the NYC terminals, and IFR at KGON. Scattered light showers are possible through the morning. MVFR may linger into early afternoon at KISP and may persist for much of the day at KGON. Have maintained the PROB30 for the NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley terminals this afternoon and early evening. Coverage however may end up more isolated and remain NW of the NYC terminals. Conditions should then lower to MVFR at most sites overnight with potential of IFR/LIFR, mainly near the coast. Winds will be light through the TAF period and remain under 10 kt. Wind direction will vary this morning, but should settle to a SE-S direction in the afternoon. Light/VRB tonight becomes ENE-E Friday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... PROB30 TSRA may not occur this afternoon/evening with any activity remaining NW of the terminals. Amendments likely for ceilings/visibilities tonight/early Friday morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday - Sunday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening near and northwest of the NYC terminals. Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... No hazards are expected outside of thunderstorms as conditions are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Some patchy fog will be possible into this morning as well as late tonight into early Friday morning, which could possibly be dense. && .HYDROLOGY... Very humid airmass with decreasing atmospheric flow in the short term. PWATS near 2 inches through tonight. Minor risk for flash flooding with otherwise poor drainage, urban and low lying flooding with any thunderstorms in the short term. Today holds relatively higher chance of these thunderstorms with more coverage in the forecast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Rip current risk forecast is moderate both for today and Friday for the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island due to onshore flow of near 5-10 kts as well as 3 to 4 ft of 7-8 sec period swell as well as some smaller onshore long period swell of 1 ft and 11-12 sec period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/99 NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...MET MARINE...JM/99 HYDROLOGY...JM/99 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...