869
FXUS61 KOKX 110551
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
151 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast will give way to a weakening low
approaching from the west overnight. Another low developing
over the Mid Atlantic region on Friday will pass south and east
of Long Island on Saturday. The low will slowly drift farther
out to sea on Sunday, with weak high pressure building in
through Monday. A frontal system will approach from the west
Monday night, with a cold frontal passage expected late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. Another cold front will move
through Tuesday night. High pressure will remain centered to the
west thereafter through next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Pops adjusted for the fact that much of the radar returns have
been unable to reach the ground due to dry air in the BL.
Isolated areas of -SHRA and possible -RASN mix for interior
portions of the area possible but much of the area through the
morning is expected to remain dry.

Low temps tonight will be mostly in the middle 30s to around 40,
with some lower 30s well inland NW of NYC. Closer to 40 for the
metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the low develops over the Mid Atlantic region, chances for
rain will increase through the day on Fri. Best chances for
rain still look to be from Fri night into early Sat morning as
the low passes to the SE, and once again temps inland may be
marginal and allow for a rain/snow mix and some light
accumulation. A persistent NW flow gusting to 25 mph should
develop Fri night and continue into Sat, then back N Sat night
as the low then starts to pull out into the Atlantic.

It will remain cool with highs only in the 40s, and lows mostly
35-40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering showers for eastern areas expected for Sunday as the
coastal low is slow to move away from the area with an omega block
over much of the CONUS, with a building ridge over the mid-West.
With more in the way of clouds than sun and northerly flow,
temperatures will be seasonably cool, with highs in the 50s for much
of the area. Eastern areas may stay in the upper 40s for highs
thanks to rain and cloud cover.

Deep layered ridging sets up as weak high pressure builds in at the
surface and the upper level ridge moves toward the region on Monday.
Expect dry conditions and generally seasonably warm temperatures,
with highs in the lower to middle 60s away from the coast, and upper
50s to around 60 along the coast.

The next chance for light showers comes Monday night as a warm front
approaches. The looks to become warm sectored Monday night, with the
associated cold front moving through early Tuesday morning. Lows
Monday night will be warm with the southerly flow set up over the
area. Lows in the middle 40s to around 50 are expected. Highs will
be similar to Monday.

Showers taper off Tuesday with the passage of the cold front and
weak high pressure building in thereafter. A secondary cold front
moves through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but there
isn`t much moisture associated with this feature, and it looks to
push through dry.

With high pressure building in and high pressure remaining to the
west of the region through next Thursday, an return to more normal
temperature for this time of year is expected for Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure with a surface trough nearby to the west
gives way to low pressure approaching from the south tonight.

VFR gives way to MVFR towards 09z, with pockets of IFR
developing 12-15z. Mainly dry until around 0z Saturday when
rain pushes in from the south.

E winds around 10 kt, backing more ENE and increasing a little
this afternoon along with gusts around 20 kt. Winds back further
NE this evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts around 20kt possible at KJFK through this
morning. Light showers possible until around 15z, but likely
without VSBY restrictions. Timing of MVFR onset may be off by
1-2 hours. Chance that IFR doesn`t occur this morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late tonight: MVFR in rain. Chance of IFR. ENE flow 10-20kt,
gusts to 25 kt possible at coast / city terminals.

Saturday: MVFR or lower. Rain likely. NE winds 10-20 kt gusts to 25 kt
possible.

Sunday: VFR with pockets of MVFR with N winds.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, W-NW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale watch issued for the ocean waters for Fri night-Sat as
persistent NE flow may gust as high as 35 kt, especially late
Fri night into Sat morning. Ocean seas during this time should
build to 6-9 ft.

SCA also issued for the non ocean waters Fri night into Sat with
NE winds gusting to 25-30 kt.

Before the gale watch, SCA remains in effect for the ocean
waters for Fri afternoon, as winds/seas start to surpass 25 kt
and 5 ft respectively.

SCA cond should continue on the ocean and the ern Sound/bays into
Sat night, then on the ocean waters on Sunday, with gusts 25-30
kt. Seas 4-6 ft are forecast for all ocean waters on Sunday
which are expected to slowly diminish through the day, but
remain above 5 ft through the day.

Thereafter, SCA conditions are not expected until possibly
Tuesday when winds may approach 25 kt, especially western
coastal zones with the approach and passage of a cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF from tonight through Saturday night has trended downward,
averaging around an inch for most places. Long duration of
this rainfall should preclude any impacts.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks in
parts of the NY Harbor area with the high tide cycle tonight
and Sat night due to persistent onshore flow and tidal piling.
This may occur on the back bays of Nassau tonight as well.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/JE
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...