982
FXUS61 KBOX 162306
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
706 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry weather Thursday and Friday, along with a warming
trend. Breezy and warm weather expected Saturday, along with
scattered showers ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier and
mild behind the front Sunday. Weather pattern turns more
unsettled early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

Key Messages:

* Gusty winds slowly diminish this evening

Have seen wind gusts generally 35-40 mph across the region
today, along with plenty of strato-cu thanks to some low level
moisture trapped underneath an inversion up around 6000ft. Radar
has shown a few light returns making their way into the
Berkshires from time to time, but really nothing but a few
sprinkles. Expect as we get toward sunset and lose the daytime
heating, most of those clouds should dissipate. though lasting
longest across far western MA. The winds will also tend to
weaken this evening at lower elevations as the pressure
gradient relaxes some and we have some boundary layer
stabilization, though gusts up to 20 mph will be the norm all
night at higher elevations and other locations that the boundary
layer doesn`t stabilize as much. Stuck with guidance blend for
temperatures, with lows generally seasonable for mid-April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages:

* Dry and breezy conditions

Latest guidance didn`t offer much in the way of changes to the
forecast. Building high pressure will bring in a much drier
airmass and help to strengthen an inversion aloft. The
combination will mean a primarily sunny day with perhaps just a
few thin strato-cu forming from daytime heating. Deep boundary
layer mixing up to around 5000ft should help bring 20-25kt winds
several thousand feet above the ground. Thus tomorrow should be
breezy. Precipitable water values will fall to below 0.2", and
with the excellent boundary layer mixing, we should also bring
more of the dry air aloft down to the surface. Thus trended
toward the lower of the dewpoint guidance and that would support
RH values falling to the 20-25% range for all inland areas. Will
coordinate with state fire officials regarding the status of
fuels, but having had a recent wet stretch, that may keep
concern of fire weather conditions to a minimum. Stuck with
guidance blend for highs to paint in highs in the upper 50s.
Can`t rule out a few lower 60s given this kind of weather
pattern we can see temperatures warm more than guidance
suggests. If that happens, we could see RH values falling into
the upper 10s%. Thursday night will feature quiet weather.
Generally clear and seasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Temperatures steadily increase heading into this weekend, with
  a likelihood of seeing upper 70s on Saturday

* Widely scattered precipitation chances return Friday night and
  Saturday before possible clearing Sunday.

* Monday looks to be mainly dry with winds on the lighter side
  but unsettled weather returns late day into Tuesday.

Friday through Sunday...

A warmer and breezy period arrives to end out the week and take us
into the weekend. This comes as surface high pressure moves further
offshore with approaching low pressure over the Great Lakes. It
serves to both initiate warm advection on southerly flow and
increase wind speeds as the pressure gradient tightens. With mixing
above 925 mb where temps will be around 7C on Friday, this allows
for high temps in the mid 60s. The exception would be along the
south coast where onshore flow keeps it cooler. Scattered warm
frontal showers are possible late Friday into the overnight hours as
PWATs increase to near 1" but coverage isn`t expected to be
widespread.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the week as that warm southerly
flow continues in earnest ahead of a shortwave and low level trough
that will pass over northern New England Sat into Sun. As the cold
front approaches we`ll see temps surge well into the 70s; there`s
even a non-zero chance some locations could see some 80F readings
for the first time this year but that will likely depend on how many
breaks of sun we can get. The cold front swings through Saturday
night, and ahead of that we will see some scattered showers,
especially over the interior of SNE.

Sunday will be quite a bit cooler in that post frontal airmass but
with more sun. Dry weather is expected as high pressure builds
toward the region, with highs only making it into the 60s.

Next week...

Monday is looking benign, if cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to
near 60. Winds should be light given the ridge of high pressure
overhead. Guidance is indicating another bout of unsettled weather
sometime late Monday and Tuesday as a trough crosses the northeast;
will have to watch trends, because if things speed up a bit it could
bring rain to the region earlier on Monday. Zonal flow then
continues with seasonable temps into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z Update

High confidence for the entire period.

VFR for the next 24 hours. The widespread clouds with ceilings
5000-6000ft will dissipate this evening. Only scattered clouds
expected the rest of tonight and Thursday. Gusty surface winds
will generally subside this evening, but gusts to 20kt or so
will still continue for a few more wind exposed locations (ie:
ORH, BOS, ACK). On Thursday, generally west winds will again
become a bit gusty to around 25kt or so in most locations. Those
winds will again diminish Thursday evening.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

215 pm update

Overall high confidence in the forecast.

Key Points:

* Gusty winds to continue into Thursday, but slowly diminishing

Admittedly marginal gale force conditions today, but widespread
gusts 25 to 30kt, occasionally to 35kt, this afternoon will be
diminishing this evening. Small Craft Advisory winds will
continue for most of the waters overnight and into Thursday.
Rough seas will also slowly begin subsiding overnight and into
Thursday, and especially Thursday night as high pressure builds
overhead.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ230>234-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Nash
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/Nash
MARINE...BW/Nash