179
FXUS61 KOKX 102133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
533 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through this evening followed by weak high
pressure building in across the area for the rest of tonight
through midweek into Thursday. Another cold front passes through
Thursday night into early Friday and then becomes nearly
stationary near the region into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A cold front continues to approach early this evening. Earlier
showers and isolated storms have moved east of the area and
there has been some clearing and heating, especially from the
NYC metro on NW. Soundings ahead of the front indicate a wealth
of dry air aloft and CAPE profiles are mostly shallow. MLCAPE
per SPC mesoanalysis aligns well with this as they are only
around 500 J/kg. A broken band of showers will move into the
Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ through the next few hours. An
isolated lightning strike is possible along with a brief
downpour. Not anticipating a severe storm given the shallow CAPE
and overall weak updrafts.

Any shower or storm should dissipate quickly by or shortly
after sunset as the environment becomes more stable. Some
residual fog is possible tonight as light winds and ample BL
moisture from preceding rain may be difficult to scour out until
tomorrow morning. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to the
middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Skies will be generally clearing behind the departing cold front
to the east by Wednesday morning. Upper level flow should become
more zonal as the trough begins to pull out of the area. This
should allow for heights to rise and surface high pressure to
build into the area. A light westerly wind with ample sunshine
will allow for a fairly dramatic rise in temperatures for much
of the area. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s everywhere with
the warmest spots near the NYC metro rising into the upper 80s.
A drop in dew points should allow heat index values to remain
close to the air temperature.

High pressure continues to build into the area by Wednesday
night allowing for generally light W/SW flow through the night.
Temperatures will remain fairly warm with low temperatures
across the area in the middle 60s with the NYC metro possibly
not dropping out of the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain over there region Thursday with
mostly dry conditions during the daytime. It will be the warmest day
of the week with temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s. Can not rule
out a few mid 90s across the NYC/NJ Metro areas.

A cold front is forecast to move through the region late Thursday
night into early Friday morning, and then become nearly stationary
to the south of the area, through the Mid Atlantic region and the
Delmarva, into early next week. The front may set off a few showers
and thunderstorms as it moves across the region. Will carry just
some slight chance POPs for now.

Aloft, a mid and upper level trough, will remain across eastern
Canada, and into Northern New England, with a nearly zonal flow
across the Midwest, and into the Northeast, and Mid Atlantic region.
There is some uncertainty as to how far south the frontal boundary
will setup.

A series of waves of low pressure are expected to track along the
frontal boundary. The main question will be exactly how far south
the front moves. This will have an impact on how much precipitation
we see this weekend. The NBM has chance POPS each period from Friday
night through Tuesday, while each day should not be a rainout.

Also, the placement of the boundary will affect temperatures, mainly
Saturday through the end of the forecast and is noted with the
uncertainty in highs and low seen in the spread of possibilities
with the NBM guidance. As a result of the uncertainty, and no
targets of opportunity, have stayed close to the NBM deterministic
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front moves through this evening. Weak high pressure
builds in thereafter.

Continued improvement is expected with VFR for NYC terminals and
west by the late afternoon. A few hours later for BDR and ISP
and likely not until this evening for GON.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is now mainly east of the
terminals. A cold front then approaches this evening bringing
another chance of showers and thunderstorms, with isolated
coverage at best. Confidence has lowered in thunder for JFK and
LGA so have replaced VCTS with VCSH. Showers and thunderstorms
will weaken as they head farther east.

Winds will primarily be light from the E or VRB until the front
approaches from the west this evening, allowing winds to shift
to the W to SW, then W to WNW after 00Z (later for eastern
terminals. The flow will be weak, and winds may go light and
variable across most, if not all terminals tonight. Sea breeze
on Wednesday for at least JFK, ISP, BDR and GON. Confidence is
low at this time for other terminals.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely throughout the entire TAF period for changing
flight categories.

Confidence in thunder has decreased for JFK and LGA so have
replaced VCTS with VCSH. However, an isolated thunderstorm can
not be completely ruled out.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday - Thursday: VFR with gusty W flow.

Friday: VFR except in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday - Sunday: MVFR cigs or lower likely with chance of
showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions develop tonight into Wednesday morning over
parts of the ocean, east of Fire Island Inlet. Otherwise sub-
SCA conditions are forecast for rest of ocean and non-ocean
waters for the short term through Wednesday. For Wednesday
afternoon, all waters forecast to be below SCA.

With a weak pressure gradient force expected across the forecast
waters, as a frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the ocean
waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
thereafter through the rest of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk for rip current development remains through this
evening at ocean beaches.

The moderate risk for rip current development continues Wednesday
and Thursday at ocean beaches. There may be a brief window for a
high risk at eastern Suffolk ocean beaches Wednesday morning due
to lingering 5 ft seas and southerly swells. Winds will
otherwise be S-SSW 10-15 kt on Wednesday with seas around 4 ft
and a 7-8 second period. Winds will be a bit weaker on Thursday
and may become SW with seas 3 to 4 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...DS/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...