615 FXUS61 KOKX 022029 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 429 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Offshore high pressure remains through midweek. High pressure then weakens, allowing for a frontal system to approach from the west. The associated cold front enters within the area late this week and may linger nearby through the weekend before moving east of the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Surface trough moves across this evening. High pressure then builds thereafter but will have its center well south of the region. This will keep a relatively warmer airmass in place. Despite light northerly winds and mostly clear sky conditions, lows tonight expected to be several degrees warmer than the previous night, ranging from mid 40s to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Offshore high pressure remains with dry conditions continuing. The region becomes established with a persistent SW flow. Warm air advection will increase as a a result. Tuesday`s forecast highs are about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than the previous day, ranging from upper 70s to lower 80s for a majority of the region. Tuesday night, likewise, expect the warming trend to continue as lows just will be mainly from lower 50s to lower 60s. Side note, there has been recent smoke aloft reported from Canadian wildfires. This has resulted in some haze in the sky but not significant enough to result to reduced visibilities at the surface. The HRRR model shows a relative increase smoke Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night so perhaps another hazy sunset is in store for Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The synoptic ridge pattern gradually shifts to more of a trough structure with rain eventually returning to the forecast late week and towards the weekend. Warming trend continues to start with the warmest forecast temperatures Wednesday through Friday, with upper 80s to near 90 for some locations. Lower temperature trend thereafter with more rain shower chances in the forecast and eventually more northerly flow late weekend into early next week. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday, Friday as well as the first half of the weekend. The more trough synoptic pattern will allow for greater moisture in the atmosphere with higher PW values. With warmer temperatures forecast Thursday and Friday, more low level instability would be available for thunderstorm growth. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak surface trough moves across early this evening. High pressure then builds in and quickly offshore through Tuesday. VFR conditions remain through the TAF period. Winds near 10 kts or less through the TAF period. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible this afternoon but probably only occasional in frequency. Sea breeze has developed at some terminals with more S-SW flow near 10 kt. Other terminals have W-NW flow. Wind direction is variable to NW flow tonight into early Tuesday. Expecting more sea breezes Tuesday afternoon along with slightly higher wind speeds. All terminals get to more southerly component with winds Tuesday but KSWF likely stays more westerly. Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires may be observed but is expected to impact low level visibility. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible pertaining to the timing of the sea breeze and if gusts become more frequent. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts to near 20 kt possible in the afternoon. Tuesday night through Wednesday: VFR. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms. Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of tstms. && .MARINE... Conditions expected to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters through Thursday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through midweek. Late week, there are low probabilities for thunderstorms and forecast models indicates PW values near 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Some locally heavy rain is possible, especially with thunderstorms, with minor flooding possible. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM HYDROLOGY...JM