229 FXUS65 KBOU 032018 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 218 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Slow warming trend into the weekend, with chances for showers and storms each day through the week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through mid evening. Most/all of the showers and storms are expected to form over the higher terrain where it will be unstable and then drift eastward. Patchy drizzle will be possible in/near the foothills due to the easterly upslope flow. Drier air moves in overnight bringing the rain threat to an end. Longwave upper trough will remain over the western half of the country through Friday. Each day through Friday, we see a shortwave trough push through the region, bringing mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. For Wednesday, with some sunshine tomorrow, temperatures climb into the lower to mid 70s across the Front Range and nearby plains. Clouds hang on most of the day over the far northeast corner, where it will be cooler. A Denver cyclone forms and creates a convergence line from the Palmer Divide northeastward to just east of DIA. Here, MLCAPE reaches 600-1000 J/kg. This instability combined with decent shear could produce strong to severe thunderstorms. The best chance for these stronger storms will be across Douglas, Elbert, and Lincoln Counties. Lift from the shortwave trough arrives late afternoon and into the evening hours. Given the expected track of the shortwave the best chance for showers and storms will be across the central and southern parts of the area. For Thursday, we`ll see a similar set up with a shortwave trough embedded in the westerly flow aloft producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE will generally range 500-1000 J/kg so can`t rule out a couple storms just reaching severe criteria, but most storms are expected to be sub-severe. Highs take a small step back with temperatures reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s. On Friday, another shortwave trough will trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Not much change in temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s over north Colorado. MLCAPE looks to be a little less, up to 600 J/kg. For the weekend, an upper level ridge begins to build over the western states. This will bring warmer temperatures for the weekend with highs topping 80 degrees across the lower elevations on Sunday. There will be a decrease in showers and thunderstorms, with the lack of large scale forcing, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours, mainly across the higher terrain. On Monday and Tuesday, the ridging over the region weakens, though temperatures look to stay near normal. We continue to see afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. No well defined features on the models at this time to think we will see more than scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Northeast to east winds will continue to bring cool moist air to the area. The lowest ceilings/visibility will be closer to the foothills (BJC) due to upslope conditions. Low clouds will persist through today and tonight. Ceilings are expected to remain under 5000 feet through tonight. Drier air moves into towards sunrise Wednesday morning bringing mostly clear skies 12-14Z Wednesday morning. However, a cyclone is expected to form bringing north- northwest winds and possibly keeping/returning low clouds for Wednesday morning. There will be a good chance for thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday evening (23Z Wednesday to 04Z Thursday). && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meier AVIATION...Meier