135 FXUS65 KPUB 190456 CCA AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1056 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and mainly dry weather returns Thursday, continuing through Sunday. - Hottest days will be Friday and Saturday, with near record high temperatures at many locations, while fire danger increases to critical levels over the mountains along the Continental Divide/Upper Arkansas Valley both days. - Cooler and potentially wetter weather returns beginning Monday, continuing through much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Currently, nice mid-June day ongoing across srn Colorado, with relatively light winds and temperatures around seasonal averages. Just a few minor convective clouds over the mountains at mid-afternoon, and expect these to dissipate quickly this evening with clearing skies and cool overnight min temps. Upper ridge builds Thursday, with heat returning to most locations as mid level heights/temps rise. Plains will likely see some near 100f maxes reappear, especially from Pueblo eastward to Lamar, while remainder of the area sees mainly 80s/90s. Models have begun to hint at thunderstorms developing late Thu afternoon along a weak surface trough from roughly Trinidad to Lamar, so added some low pops for storms in this area for a few hours in the late afternoon. Given high cloud bases and large t/td spreads, expect more wind than rain with most activity, with a low risk of some 50-60 mph gusts under the strongest storms. Fire weather conditions look marginal Thursday (winds around 25 mph) so no highlights at this point. (More detailed fire weather discussion follows at the end of this product). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025 The upper ridge will push off to the east Friday-Saturday, with breezy southwest flow setting in aloft. Downsloping and enhanced heating will cause temperatures to soar again, with areas across the eastern plains exceeding 100 degrees both days, while even the valleys hit the upper-80s to low-90s. Additionally, gusty winds are expected to mix down for the surface, increasing chances for both fire weather and heat- related hazards. Otherwise, the area should remain dry and generally free of precipitation as we head into the weekend. The incoming upper trough begins to dig down over the western CONUS starting on Sunday. Southwest flow aloft will increase, and though most of the area will remain dry some moisture will start to move in as well. Currently looking at the chance for some isolated showers and storms Sunday evening sometime, but it will depend on what kind of moisture advection we get with southerly surface winds. Temperatures finally begin to cool as we move into early next week, back into seasonal levels over the plains, though it will still be in the 80s at least. A cold front is expected to move in sometime on Monday as a lobe of energy translates through the jet to our north. Will need to see how this slight decrease in heat, along with moisture returns, impacts critical fire conditions. This will also coincide with an increased chance for thunderstorms over the plains, and while the moisture will be helpful for fuels, fire starts from lightning may become a more immediate concern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/ ... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025 VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours at COS, PUB and ALS. Generally light diurnal wind regimes expected overnight, with slightly more mixing leading to gusty southerly winds up to 25kts at the taf sites tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Winds increase slightly across the higher terrain and interior valleys on Thursday, though speeds should stay at or just below critical fire weather thresholds and no fire weather highlight has been issued. On Friday and Saturday, Pacific NW upper trough deepens, with increasing sw winds over srn Colorado both days. Given winds in the 700-500mb layer of 35-45 kts, expect surface winds to easily reach 25-35 mph both days, with deep mixing producing some 50 mph gusts over higher exposed terrain. Air mass will be extremely dry, with single digit afternoon RH at most locations, while max temps will be in the 90s/100s lower elevations with mainly 80s interior valleys and all but the higher mountain peaks. While weather conditions will support widespread high fire danger, fuels away from the Continental Divide are still not critical, so only highlights at this point will be zones 220/223 along the Divide/upper Arkansas Valley. Will have to watch the San Luis Valley, where prolonged windy/hot weather may cure fine fuels enough to become critical, especially by late weekend. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ220-223. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ220-223. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MW FIRE WEATHER...PETERSEN