338
FXUS65 KPUB 100943
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today, with showers and thunderstorms over the higher
  terrain.

- At and above normal temperatures through the end of the work
  week, with continued daily chances for afternoon showers and
  storms, mainly over and near the higher terrain.

- A drying trend with above normal temperatures for the weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 443 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

As a weak area of high pressure begins to build in over our region,
weak west-northwest flow will set in aloft as generally south winds
persist at the surface. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than
yesterday, with high-70s to 80s over the high valley and mid-80s to
low-90s over the plains. Clouds should mostly linger over and near
the mountains, with dry conditions over the lower elevations.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will form over the higher
terrain around midday, though due to a general lack of CAPE and
shear, as well as minimal forcing outside of diurnal heating, storms
aren`t expected to become especially strong. Some briefly heavy
rainfall may be possible, along with gusty winds and small hail.
Current SPC outlook has our area outlooked for general
thunderstorms, I-25 and west. The area will dry out again tonight,
with continued southerly winds over the plains and lows in the 40s-
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 443 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Wednesday-Friday...Modest westerly flow aloft remains progged across
the region through the end of the work week, as upper level ridging
across the Rockies on Tuesday, is flattened by weak waves translating
across the Northern Tier. Latest model data continues to support
enough moisture for afternoon and evening showers and storms through
this period, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain
Wednesday and Thursday. Further east across the Plains, model data
indicates capping in place through the day, with the potential for
late afternoon and evening storms, if elevated instability can be
tapped. Temperatures are progged to warm to above seasonal norms
through the period, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the
plains, into the 80s across the high valleys and mainly in 60s and
70s across higher terrain. Low temperatures look to be in the 50s to
low 60s across plains, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher
terrain.

Saturday-Monday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build back
across the Rockies through the weekend, with a large 595DM upper high
in place across the Desert Southwest into the Rockies. Operational
and ensemble model data, especially the EC guidance, support much
drier air moving across the region within generally weak southwest
flow aloft across the region. This will lead to decreasing chances of
diurnal showers and storms through the period, with any storms that
can develop being high based. Temperatures to warm to well above
seasonal norms in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Plains, and
in the 60s to low 80s across the higher terrain. Models do differ on
the location and amplitude of the upper high through the middle
of next week, leading to uncertainty in temperatures and precipitation
chances later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 443 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS through the next
24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over and near the
higher terrain again this afternoon into evening, with ALS having
the best chance of seeing some brief precipitation and lowered cigs.
If storms pass by, they should be fairly isolated in nature, with
rain and brief MVFR conditions before things dry out again overnight.
Chances for any precipitation at KCOS and KPUB are currently too low
to include in this round of TAFs, though incoming data will be monitored
for the chance of showers making it east of the mountains.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 443 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Latest model data continues to indicate temperatures warming to
above seasonal levels through the end of the week, with COS
possibly seeing the 1st 90F day of the year, while PUB could be
close to seeing the 1st 100F day this year by Sunday, June 15th.
This would be close to average for both locales, with the mean
date for 1st 90F day at COS being June 20th, while the mean date
for the 1st 100F day at PUB being June 28th.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
CLIMATE...MW