338 FXUS65 KPUB 100943 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 343 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today, with showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. - At and above normal temperatures through the end of the work week, with continued daily chances for afternoon showers and storms, mainly over and near the higher terrain. - A drying trend with above normal temperatures for the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 443 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 As a weak area of high pressure begins to build in over our region, weak west-northwest flow will set in aloft as generally south winds persist at the surface. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday, with high-70s to 80s over the high valley and mid-80s to low-90s over the plains. Clouds should mostly linger over and near the mountains, with dry conditions over the lower elevations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will form over the higher terrain around midday, though due to a general lack of CAPE and shear, as well as minimal forcing outside of diurnal heating, storms aren`t expected to become especially strong. Some briefly heavy rainfall may be possible, along with gusty winds and small hail. Current SPC outlook has our area outlooked for general thunderstorms, I-25 and west. The area will dry out again tonight, with continued southerly winds over the plains and lows in the 40s- 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 443 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Wednesday-Friday...Modest westerly flow aloft remains progged across the region through the end of the work week, as upper level ridging across the Rockies on Tuesday, is flattened by weak waves translating across the Northern Tier. Latest model data continues to support enough moisture for afternoon and evening showers and storms through this period, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain Wednesday and Thursday. Further east across the Plains, model data indicates capping in place through the day, with the potential for late afternoon and evening storms, if elevated instability can be tapped. Temperatures are progged to warm to above seasonal norms through the period, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, into the 80s across the high valleys and mainly in 60s and 70s across higher terrain. Low temperatures look to be in the 50s to low 60s across plains, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Saturday-Monday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build back across the Rockies through the weekend, with a large 595DM upper high in place across the Desert Southwest into the Rockies. Operational and ensemble model data, especially the EC guidance, support much drier air moving across the region within generally weak southwest flow aloft across the region. This will lead to decreasing chances of diurnal showers and storms through the period, with any storms that can develop being high based. Temperatures to warm to well above seasonal norms in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Plains, and in the 60s to low 80s across the higher terrain. Models do differ on the location and amplitude of the upper high through the middle of next week, leading to uncertainty in temperatures and precipitation chances later next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 443 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS through the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over and near the higher terrain again this afternoon into evening, with ALS having the best chance of seeing some brief precipitation and lowered cigs. If storms pass by, they should be fairly isolated in nature, with rain and brief MVFR conditions before things dry out again overnight. Chances for any precipitation at KCOS and KPUB are currently too low to include in this round of TAFs, though incoming data will be monitored for the chance of showers making it east of the mountains. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 443 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Latest model data continues to indicate temperatures warming to above seasonal levels through the end of the week, with COS possibly seeing the 1st 90F day of the year, while PUB could be close to seeing the 1st 100F day this year by Sunday, June 15th. This would be close to average for both locales, with the mean date for 1st 90F day at COS being June 20th, while the mean date for the 1st 100F day at PUB being June 28th. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MW CLIMATE...MW