445 FXUS65 KPUB 042325 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO 525 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms expected tomorrow over the southeast plains; all convective hazards possible. - A few strong storms this afternoon over the southern I-25 corridor and adjacent S mtns. - Fog expected over the Palmer Divide tonight && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Currently... Showers and thunderstorms were developing over the mountains and were pushing east. These storms are in response to another in a series of shortwaves in the modest W-SW flow aloft. Otherwise, most of the region is seeing a bit more sun then the last few days although low clouds are still socked in over parts of El Paso county with the continuing SSE moist sfc flow. Rest of Today into tonight... Latest SPC mesoanalysis page was indicating the atmosphere over the southern I-25 corridor was starting to become unstable with mixed CAPE values of 500-1000 Joules and 30 knots of effective shear. Atmosphere should continue to destabilize and expect to see a few strong to marginally severe storms develop over the greater southern I-25 corridor later this afternoon. SPC continues to have this area under marginal risk. Over the remainder of the region expected scattered showers and storms to continue to develop over the higher terrain and move out onto the plains during the 21-22 UTC time frame. Some of these storms will produce locally heavy rain. From a hydro perspective, given the rain that we have been having, HPC has the region in marginal risk of flash flooding. Tonight... Expect showers and storms to linger over the mtns, especially contdvd region into the later evening hours before gradually dissipating. With continuing S-SE sfc flow over the EL Paso county region, low clouds are expected to continue with areas of locally dense fog on top of the Palmer divide. Over the plains, clouds will be slow to clear but should decrease west to east (except over EL Paso county) as the night progresses. Tomorrow... The main concern this day will be severe convective storms. SPC has area outlooked for slight with a 5% Tor risk and hatched hail over the far southeastern plains. HREF shows several helicity tracks over this region, with the activity lasting into the evening hours. Although the brunt of the activity is over the greater Raton Mesa region there are some track farther north over the Palmer Divide region. Hydro-wise, HPC continues to have fcst area in marginal risk for flash flooding. Otherwise, it will be warmer tomorrow across the fcst area with high temps around 80F over the plains, around 70 larger valleys and 40s and 50s mtns. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Overall, we should see a gradual warming trend over the period although low level moisture is not expected to dry out all that much, so we will continue with the possibility of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through the period. From the DESI guidance, it appears Saturday should be the driest day over the region. Temps over the plains will generally be in the 70s on the plains Friday rising into the 80s for the weekend into early next week. We may see a brief cooldown on Monday as a weak disturbance pushes down in the NW`erly flow aloft. /HOdanish && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 522 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 KCOS and KPUB: TEMPO until 02z for -TSRA with MVFR-IFR cigs and vsby, otherwise VCSH through 06z. Starting at 06z mention -DZ and BR with MVFR-IFR cigs and vsby, with possible degradation to LIFR between 08z-15z. Improving to MVFR after 15z, then VFR by 17z. KALS: VCSH through 06z, then redeveloping by 21z tomorrow afternoon with intermittent MVFR cigs. Otherwise, VFR conditions anticipated through the forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH/WFO Pueblo LONG TERM...HODANISH/WFO Pueblo AVIATION...MOORE