042
FXUS65 KPUB 241131
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
431 AM MST Tue Dec 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early AM clouds over parts of the region will quickly dissipate a
  rapid warming aloft will dry our region by mid morning.

- Warmer over the plains today and cooler over the larger valleys.

- Santa should see VFR conditions this evening over the fcst
  area.

- Our Christmas system continues to trend drier and further
  south, limiting rain and snowfall chances on our plains, and
  keeping snow totals low over our mountains.

- An active pattern remains in place through the extended, with
  off and on chances for mountain snows and above normal
  temperatures on the plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM MST Tue Dec 24 2024

Currently...

Quite a bit of clouds/snow showers were noted over the CONTDVD
region this AM with passing mid level clouds noted over the far
eastern plains. The remainder of the region was generally clear.
Ambient temps early this AM were rather uniform with 20s and 30s
region wide.The warmest temps were noted over the far eastern plains
with mid 30s noted.

Today...

Dramatic warming at mid levels is fcst to occur today as temps in
the -20s at 500 mbs are fcst to warm to -12 by late this afternoon,
With rapid warming, associated with rapidly rising height fields
should quickly dissipate most clouds over the region by later this
morning. Temps today are expected to warm over the plains as
compared to yesterday, with max temps expected in the mid 50s over
most of the plains. Larger valleys, on the other hand, will be
cooler than yesterday, and expect teh San Luis Valley to only reach
the mid 40s this afternoon.

Tonight (Christmas Eve)...

Ridge axis moves over region this this evening and southwesterly
flow will be quick to develop at mid levels as our Christmas weather
system moves towards the region. Only sensible weather initially
with this system tonight will be increasing high clouds over the
fcst area tonight. These clouds will help moderate lows tonight and
expect readings mainly in the 20s over the plains and tens over the
valleys. A few mins in the L30s will occur in the banana belt
regions.

Although nearly all of the area will be dry throughout tonight, a
few snow showers could creep in to CONTDVD region towards sunrise.
Overall, expect Santa to have VFR conditions this evening as he
delivers his precious gifts. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MST Tue Dec 24 2024

Wednesday (Christmas Day) and Thursday..

By Wednesday morning, models bring an open wave into the Great
Basin, closing it off by Wednesday evening as it tracks south to the
Colorado/New Mexico border. This feature is largely moisture starved
due to earlier waves passing through. With meager Pacific moisture
remaining to it, mountain snow looks to begin Wednesday morning
across our central mountains, the San Juans, and the La Garitas,
though snowfall rates and totals look to remain light. Snow chances
spread eastward across the Continental Divide and into the eastern
mountains throughout the day on Christmas day. Highest totals look
to be over the San Juans, where 3-6 inches will be possible. All
other mountain totals look to remain around 3 inches or less.
Overall, snowfall impacts for the high country look to remain
minimal, though mountain passes could get tricky if any heavier
convective bands manage to develop. Heavier bands could lead to
slick roads and degraded visibility with blowing snow for brief
periods.

Models also continue to track the low further south with each model
run, with the general consensus now being that this weak low will
track all way down into northern Texas by Thursday morning. This
will keep rain and snow chances even lower for our plains, though
the Palmer Divide and the Raton Mesa could still see a dusting from
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. All other areas look to
remain warm enough to support rain chances over snow through the
event, though in all likelihood, many areas could stay completely
dry if this drier and more southern tracked trend continues. Daytime
highs on Wednesday look to climb into the mid 50s across the plains,
with 40s for mountain valleys. Winds will be breezy, especially
across our far eastern plains, where gusts to 30 mph will be
possible Wednesday afternoon. Behind the system, temperatures look
to be just a couple of degrees cooler for Thursday, with highs in
the low to mid 50s across the plains, and 40s for mountain valleys.
Winds will weaken and skies will clear for most areas through
Thursday, though our far western mountains could begin to snowfall
from our next approaching system as early as Thursday evening.

Thursday Onwards..

Our pattern remains active through remainder of the forecast period,
with a series of progressive waves passing through. Models are not
showing much of any agreement on the timing, amplitude, or tracks of
these systems, but it does look like at least the Continental Divide
should keep off and on chances for snow in the forecast through the
beginning of next week. Whether the lower elevations manage to see
any rain or snow is yet to be seen, but temperatures do appear to
remain above normal throughout the period as well. Just beyond the
forecast period, a cool down looks likely heading into the New Year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 426 AM MST Tue Dec 24 2024

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and
diurnally driven. Overall, Santa should have an easy night over
the greater Southeastern Colorado Region.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH