867
FXUS65 KGJT 071123
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
523 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke and haze will remain across the area this morning though
  a wind shift should cause conditions to improve somewhat this
  afternoon. Outside of that, high pressure remains in control
  with temperatures still above seasonal norms.

- A slight uptick in moisture may allow very isolated showers,
  or a quick storm, over the eastern Uintas Tuesday spreading to
  the higher terrain on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Haze and smoke persists across portions of the forecast area
thanks to the Yellow Lake wildfire to our west. Northwesterly
flow continues to allow this smoke to drift into our area. The
good news is that a dry and shallow shortwave is currently
moving overhead and by dawn Monday, will but over the Rockies.
Model guidance continues to show upper level flow becoming more
northerly to northeasterly which will inhibit more smoke from
moving into the area. The HRRR Near-Surface smoke product also
indicates the amount of smoke and haze will start to diminish
this afternoon. So while it won`t completely be gone, conditions
should improve. Outside of the smoke, temperatures continue
their warm streak with some near-records possible once again.
This will be dependent on the amount of smoke, however.

For Tuesday, models have been fairly consistent with flow around
the high pressure causing a slight uptick in moisture off the
Pacific. Latest guidance hasn`t changed so the end result will
be some mid to high level clouds across much of the region with
more cloudiness over the higher terrain. Models have also been
consistent with a few very isolated showers or quick storm over
the eastern Uintas thanks to an approaching shortwave. The NBM
is also picking up on these features so will keep them in the
forecast. Elsewhere, dry conditions persist with high temps
still in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024

A weak shortwave will be moving through the flow across the north
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with some isolated showers and storms
possible over the mountains. However, the high pressure ridge
remains in place and not seeing much in the way of dynamic support
for much wetting precipitation. Could see gusty winds from any
shower activity with most areas probably seeing an increase in cloud
cover. High pressure builds back overhead Thursday through Saturday
with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies the more likely outcome.
Beyond Saturday, this is where the models are still having a
difficult time on how it handles the late weekend storm system. The
GFS indicates a cut off low dropping into the Intermountain West
Sunday and hanging out through early next week. The ECMWF on the
other hand indicates the high pressure ridge remaining firmly in
place through next weekend and into early next week with the
aforementioned cut off low settling over the Desert Southwest next
Sunday and eventually lifting northeast through the Four Corners but
timing is suspect. Either way, it`s quite the toss up between
increasing shower activity next Sunday into early next week or
continued dry conditions. Thus, very low confidence exists in the
forecast for precipitation potential through the coming week with
persistence more than likely winning out with continued dry and very
warm, above normal temperatures. Would like to see better model and
run to run consistency for the late weekend system before buying
in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024

High pressure continues so mostly clear skies and light winds
are expected with an occasional gust around 20kts possible. Hazy
and smokey conditions persist at KGJT and KVEL though
visibilities have not dropped below 6 miles. Some relief should
be seen later this afternoon as mixing and a slight wind shift
allow the haze and smoke to start dissipating. VFR conditions
will persist for the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT