366
FXUS65 KGJT 220530
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1130 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke is visible across the region today due to a fire
  burning south of Salt Lake City.

- Red Flag Warnings have been issued for this afternoon across
  much of southwest Colorado.

- Fire Weather Watches have been issued for this Tuesday across
  southeastern Utah, southwest Colorado and the colorado
  mountains along the Divide.


- Triple digit heat expected by mid-week with moisture chances
  returning late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Low pressure across southern Canada and high pressure along the
Mexican Border is keeping a dry zonal flow across the Western States
through mid week. As the high pressure to the south pushes up into
Arizona and New Mexico Tuesday, the pressure gradients aloft tighten
over eastern Utah and Western Colorado bringing gustier winds mixing
down through the afternoon across a broader area. With the dry
airmass remaining in place, there are increased critical fire
weather conditions across the region and thus issued a Fire Weather
Watch for Tuesday from noon to 9 PM for southeastern Utah,
southwestern Colorado and along the Divide from New Mexico to the
Wyoming Border. Expect an update on this with the morning forecast
package as the details become more clear. Wednesday also looks to
have similar conditions with increased wind gust moving into
northwestern Colorado. Held off on issuing a watch for Wednesday as
there is uncertainty on timing of a moist plume wrapping around the
high and moving in from the west. Stay tuned for updates on this.

As this moisture moves in from the west, the Utah mountains tend to
dry out the lower layers of the atmosphere in this zonal flow.
Though we expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
from Wednesday evening through Friday generally over the higher
terrain, most of the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground.
This increases the risks for dry lightning and strong outflow winds,
possibly 60 mph or more, from virga bombs. A upper-level trough
drops down from the Pacific northwest Friday to sweep any lingering
moisture out of the region bringing a return of extremely dry
conditions and strong gusty winds for the weekend. This poses a
threat for widespread critical fire weather conditions across the
region through the weekend and possibly into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Monday afternoon will once again see breezy afternoon winds with
gusts of 18-25 kts for most terminals, though lighter terrain-
driven winds are expected during overnight periods. Models
suggest smoke from Utah fires will again be transported over CNY
tonight. We`ve lowered vis slightly during this period, but we
don`t expect conditions to lower below VFR. Other terminals
should expect light and unimpactful smoke through the morning
as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions become more widespread by
today through mid-week. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for
today from 1PM to 8PM for most of southwest Colorado. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday from noon to 9 PM for
southeastern Utah, southwestern Colorado and along the Divide
from New Mexico to the Wyoming Border. Gusts are expected to be
upwards of 30 mph, with locally higher gusts possible. Single-
digit RH is also expected during this time, with triple digit
daytime highs expected Tuesday and Wednesday for the desert
valleys. The risk for critical fire weather conditions are
possible again Wednesday, but there is some uncertainty and thus
held off issuing any products at this time. Some mid to high
level moisture moves into the region late in the week which may
bring an increase in RH and lower magnitude wind speeds, but
brings risks of dry lightning and virga outflow winds wednesday
evening through Friday. The weekend looks to see a return of
critical fire weather conditions. Continue to follow our
forecast as updates are made.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for COZ201-205-207-290>295.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ207-
     290>295.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for UTZ491.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...DB/TGJT