990 FXUS65 KBOU 122019 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 219 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Winds to 50 mph, brief heavy rain, and small hail will be the main threats for most of the area. A few storms could be severe over far northeast Colorado with strong winds and large hail. - Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continues Friday with a few severe thunderstorms possible over the eastern plains. - Warming and drying trend this weekend with the chance for thunderstorms confined to the northeast plains. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 219 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will track across the area. The airmass over the higher terrain and nearby plains is little more moist and unstable compared to yesterday with mid 30s to mid 40s dew points and MLCAPE up of 300- 800 J/kg. This will result in mainly high-based showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds the main threat. Brief heavy rain and small hail will also be possible. Southeast winds over the eastern plains are advecting moisture into the area. Dew points here are in the 50s with 60s nearby in Kansas and Nebraska. MLCAPE in this area is 1000-2000 J/kg. Thus, some of the storms over the northeast plains could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Models are in good agreement the northeast corner of Colorado will see a round of storms this evening, 6 PM to 10 PM. To the west showers and thunderstorms will be ending during the evening hours. Water vapor satellite imagery showing drier air off to the west. This drier will shift eastward for Friday. This will lead to fewer and weaker showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain and nearby plains. Over eastern Colorado, southeast winds will continue to bring moisture, with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s. It will be unstable again with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Models vary how far west the best instability and moisture make it. Most models keep it over far northeast Colorado, though the NAM model has it as far west as Greeley and just east of DIA. Outflow from thunderstorms tonight over Nebraska may help push the southeast winds westward more than the models show. For this weekend and Monday, ridging intensifies over the Central and Southern Rockies, leading to warmer temperatures and drier conditions. Most locations over northeast Colorado are expected to top 90F degrees. With precipitable water falling below a half inch along the Front Range and below a third inch over the higher terrain, not expecting enough moisture for showers and thunderstorms. Again, the best chance for storms will be over far northeast Colorado where southeast winds may bring enough moisture for thunderstorms, some of which could end up being severe. For Tuesday, the latest model runs have been trending towards an upper level trough pushing through the area and knocking down the ridge. This will lead to cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s across northeast Colorado. It may also bring enough moisture for showers and thunderstorms, though not all models show this, but enough do to mention showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Wednesday and Thursday, a flat upper level ridge will prevail over Colorado. Wednesday`s temperatures may stay below 90F over the plains, but by Thursday temperatures are expected to heat up into the 90s again. Some of the longer term models are showing temperatures well into the 90s and nearing 100F towards next Friday- Sunday (June 20th to 22nd). Drier air will be over the area as well with little to no chance for showers and thunderstorms, unless we see more moisture than expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/... Issued at 1129 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 We are looking at a similar setup today as yesterday with scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The main time period for storms will be 20Z to 00Z. The main threat with the showers and thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds to 40 knots. Expect the Denver airports to see a couple wind shifts due to the outflow winds. Convection slowly decreases/shifts eastward after 00Z with the area free of showers and storms 03Z to 04Z, if not sooner. Winds then settle a southerly drainage direction for the overnight hours. For Friday, we see fewer showers and storms, but the airports will likely be impacted by outflow winds again. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meier AVIATION...Meier