622 FXUS65 KPUB 020909 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 309 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms today across south central and southeast Colorado, a few of which could be severe near the Kansas border this afternoon and evening. - Widespread rain developing overnight behind a cold front, from the Palmer Divide, south along the I-25 corridor. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Sunday for the region && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 307 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Currently...satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning over southern Arizona, which will impact our weather through the next 24 hours. Southwesterly flow is spreading into the San Juan Mountains, and light rain and high elevation snow should start to increase early this morning. Across the Plains, dry conditions are expected to prevail into the morning hours. Temperatures are quite mild, with 50s to lower 60s across the Plains, and mid 50s over the San Luis Valley. Temperatures should remain steady through daybreak, with not much in the way of additional cooling expected. Winds are light and southerly for most of the region this morning. Today...interesting setup for today as the upper low ejects northeast into New Mexico this afternoon. There are a couple areas of concern; showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain by late morning and spreading eastward into the I-25 corridor for this afternoon. The other will be severe weather potential out near the Kansas border along a potential dryline. For the severe weather threat...much will depend on how far east the dryline pushes before convection develops. As the upper low ejects, southwesterly flow will increase, spreading eastward into this afternoon. This air will be a bit drier, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50, and will spread east across the Plains. Most guidance has this drier air spreading into western Kansas by late afternoon. If convection can develop earlier over the eastern tier of counties, there is a short period of severe weather potential before the cells move into western Kansas. CAPE would be high, near 2000 j/kg, and shear marginal, but sufficient enough to support hail production. If storms are able to develop over eastern Colorado, they could quickly become severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. But, if the storms are a bit later in forming, the main severe threats will be off to the east. CAM guidance for the most part develops convection late, with a limited severe weather potential. At this time, confidence in severe weather is about 30% across Kiowa, Prowers and Baca Counties. Out west, showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid day, and spread off the higher terrain into the I-25 corridor through the afternoon. CAPE values will be less, near 500-700 j/kg along the Eastern Mountains into the adjacent Plains. Shear will also be much weaker, with 0-6km values around 20 kts. This thunderstorm activity could produce hail inch hail and gusty outflow winds to near 50 mph along with locally heavy rainfall and lightning. Temperatures this afternoon will warm quickly with mostly 80s expected across the Plains, and upper 60s to lower 70s across the San Luis Valley. Tonight...the upper low is forecast to open into an upper trough and lift out of New Mexico into southwest Kansas overnight. At the surface, a strong surface low is forecast to develop, with a strong cold front wrapping south across the Plains overnight into Tuesday morning. Plenty of moisture will wrap around this surface low along with upslope low to mid level flow. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected late tonight into Tuesday morning from the Palmer Divide, south along the I-25 corridor. Much of the I-25 corridor could see in excess of a half inch of rainfall late tonight into Tuesday morning. Overnight low temperatures will remain mild, with mainly low to mid 50s across the Plains, and 40s across the San Luis Valley. Mozley && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 307 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Tuesday - Sunday: Well a very rinse and repeat long term period is expected, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances across portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A messy pattern is still anticipated to be in place, with the first few days being influenced by troughing and weakening cut-off lows, and then the rest of the period being influenced by northwesterly flow and embedded waves/ripples. Despite the relatively unorganized flow, it is expected to bring periods of increased forcing to the region. This forcing, along with moisture in place, will allow for daily showers and thunderstorms to blossom across the region. Coverage of showers and storms will be highest along the mountains, where forcing will be greatest. Along with that, given the broader support in place, showers and storms may linger into the early overnight hours, though coverage and intensity will remain greatest during the afternoon and evening hours, when instability will be maximized. Beyond all of that, breezy winds early in the week will become more relatively light as the troughing and cut-off lows exit the area, with increased periods of cloud cover expected each afternoon through this period. As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday are anticipated to be the coolest days thanks to a cold front passage late Monday. Then for the rest of the long term period, temperatures will steadily warm, with near seasonal values returning by the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 307 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 KALS...VFR conditions through much of the forecast period at the terminal. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening, with brief periods of reduced CIGS and VIS along with gusty outflow winds. KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through this morning, with increasing showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Reduced VIS and CIGS along with gusty outflow winds will be possible. A cold front will arrive tonight swinging winds north to northeast, with gusts near 30 kts possible. Low stratus and widespread rain will produce MVFR to IFR CIGS and VIS late tonight into Tuesday morning. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOZLEY