336
FXUS65 KPUB 220659
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1259 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are expected each afternoon over the far
eastern plains.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the mountains
and San Luis Valley each afternoon through at least Wednesday.

- Some moisture may return to the mountains later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Another warm day across the region as high pressure dominates to our
south. Winds aloft will remain out of the west across the region,
though flow won`t be particularly strong. Over the mountains, dry
surface conditions and downsloping flow will cause critical fire
weather conditions for several hours this afternoon. Red Flag
Warning is in effect 1pm-8pm for our western mountains and the San
Luis Valley.

Over the plains, highs will be noticeably cooler than yesterday,
hovering in the 80s to low-90s. Breezy southeast winds will advect
some moist air into the area, and with a shortwave trough passing
over later in the day, showers and thunderstorms are expected. There
will be ample instability in the area, with 500-800 J/kg of CAPE or
so around the Palmer, where storms are likely to initiate first in
the early afternoon. CAPE increases to the southeast along with
moisture content, so as storms move in that direction they are
expected to intensify. Shear will pick up as the shortwave moves
overhead as well, leading to a window for strong to severe storms
through most of the afternoon and into early evening. Main impact
concerns will be large hail, strong winds, and possibly a tornado or
two.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The evolution of the long-term forecast remains fairly consistent
with previous data. High pressure continues hovering to our south,
leaving breezy west winds aloft over the region. For the mountains,
this means repeated critical fire weather conditions each afternoon,
mainly over our western mountains and the San Luis Valley, thanks to
downsloping. Temperatures will remain warm, increasing again later
in the week.

For the plains, surface winds will turn east-southeast in the
afternoons, and several passing shortwave disturbances will allow
for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Given the amount of
moisture in place, storms closer to the CO/KS border will be strong
to severe, with hail and wind as the main threats but with a few
isolated tornadoes possible as well.

Our next pattern shift is expected to arrive around Thursday-Friday.
An upper trough is expected to start amplifying over the Pacific
Northwest, and as it moves our area will see better chances for more
widespread precipitation. However, if the system moves north of us,
we may just get stronger winds and, as a result, more widespread
fire weather concerns instead. Will have to wait and see how the
data handles things in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB
through the next 24 hours. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to move across the eastern plains in the
afternoon. Breezy southeast winds, gusting 20-25 knots, will be
followed by passing storms. Have included as PROB30s for now given
the isolated to scattered coverage expected. Outflow winds could hit
40 knots, accompanied by brief periods of rain and lightning before
storms move on and winds weaken near the end of the period.

Meanwhile, KALS will remain dry, with gusty west-southwest flow
around 20 knots during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected each afternoon through
the next several days, mainly over the mountains and the San Luis
Valley. Warm temperatures will combine with dry air and downsloping,
breezy west winds to create conditions supportive of dangerous fire
behavior. There will be a brief lull in critical conditions around
the end of the week, as winds aloft weaken and a bit more moisture
moves in, but depending on how the wind pattern shifts this weekend
more widespread critical conditions will be possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ220-223-224.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ220-223-224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
FIRE WEATHER...GARBEROGLIO