448 FXUS65 KBOU 042324 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 524 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms over the eastern plains Thursday afternoon. - Slow warming trend into the weekend, with chances for showers and storms each day through the week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 241 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 It has taken a while, but clouds have scattered out over most of the area, which should allow temperatures to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. This combined with dew points in the mid to upper 40s will lead to MLCAPE up to 800 J/kg. Some of the storms that develop may be strong with small hail and heavy rain. We are seeing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Four Corners region being produced by a shortwave trough lifting east- northeast out of the Desert Southwest. This trough will trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon (after 4pm) and this evening. Another weak shortwave trough is expected to bring a round of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Timing will be earlier in the day with storms expected to develop a little after noon. At the surface, a trough drifts east across eastern Colorado Thursday. Best moisture and instability will be east of it with MLCAPE 900-1200 J/kg. Shear will be good as well, so a few of the storms that form in this environment could become severe. To the west of the trough across the Front Range, there will still be enough moisture and instability for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. On Friday, we will see a shortwave trough push across the region. This will produce another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy skies and an easterly wind will result in slightly cooler temperatures. This will lead to a little less instability with MLCAPE up to 700 J/kg, so most/all of the storms are expected to be sub-severe. Saturday will be the one dry (mostly) day. Subsidence behind Friday`s system will result in drier and warmer conditions. Most locations over northeast Colorado are expected to top 80 degrees. Can`t rule out a few high-based showers/storms over the higher terrain, but chances are less than 20 percent and any shower/storm will be weak and short lived. Temperatures take a step cooler Sunday behind a weak cold front that moves through Saturday evening. North/northeast winds behind the front will help to increase moisture across the area. This is expected to be enough moisture for scattered afternoon showers/storms. For Monday through Wednesday, a ridge will be weakening as it shifts east across the Central Rockies Monday and Tuesday. There`s expected to be enough moisture trapped under the ridge for late day showers and thunderstorms each day next week through at least Wednesday. Temperatures will warm up to near normal across northeast Colorado with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/... Issued at 516 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 There will be a chc of tstms (40%) thru 02z as activity develops to the west and sw and move across the area. After 02z activity will move out of the area with only a slight chc of lingering showers. Ceilings may drop down to 4000-5000 ft as the activity moves across with brief visibility down to 5sm. Overnight may see ceilings drop down to 1500-2000 ft between 09z and 13z. After 13z should see ceilings sct out. There will be sct tstms by 20Z Thu aftn. Winds will generally be SE thru the evening outside of erractic winds with storms. After 08Z winds may become more variable in direction with speeds under 6 mph. Winds by 17Z Wed will gradually become NNE. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meier AVIATION...RPK