837
FXUS65 KVEF 111143
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
443 AM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warming continues today with temperatures 15 to
20 degrees above seasonal normals. A passing system will bring gusty
southwest winds to the region today and Saturday. This system will
also gradually drop temperatures a few degrees each day through the
start of next week, but temperatures will remain well-above normal
despite this gradual drop.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.
An approaching shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest
through the day today, which will deamplify the ridge over the
Desert Southwest. Despite decreasing heights, the resulting
increased winds will enhance vertical mixing, which will allow
temperatures to climb an additional 1 to 3 degrees compared to
yesterday. As such, there are a number of daily high temperature
records in jeopardy today at local climate sites including Las
Vegas, Bishop, Needles, Barstow-Daggett, and Desert Rock-Mercury.
The latest guidance has an 8% chance of 100 degrees in Las Vegas
today, so Las Vegas seeing their first recorded 100 degrees in April
this weekend is unlikely. That said, valley locations will see
increased Heat Risk to "Moderate", which is Level 2 on a scale of 0
to 4, while all other locations below 7500 feet will see "Minor"
Heat Risk, which is Level 1. These levels do NOT mean that any one
individual will "only have minor or moderate impacts". These levels
mean that the general population as a whole who have access to water
and air conditioning may not experience impacts... However, those
who are sensitive to heat, who are traveling from out of town, who
are out in the sun without shade or access to air conditioning, who
are not adequately hydrated, and/or who are consuming alcohol,
caffeine, or other drugs will be affected.
The trough axis associated with the aforementioned shortwave will
push through the region Saturday and Sunday, which will further
increase south-southwesterly wind gusts across the forecast area.
Saturday will be the gustiest day, with widespread gusts between 20
and 30 mph and gusts between 30 and 40 mph in the higher terrain.
Not anticipating a need for widespread wind-related headlines, but
will continue to pay close attention to the southern Owens Valley
where downslope west winds are possible across Highway 395 at and
south of Olancha. The HREF only extends through 5pm on Saturday at
this time, but indicates a few hours of speeds 40-45 mph possible in
this area.
Otherwise, temperatures gradually drop by a couple of degrees each
day through the weekend, but still remain well-above normal with
widespread "Minor" Heat Risk.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.
Temperatures will continue to slowly cool early next week as a Rex
Block type pattern will set up over the region; however, above-normal
conditions are expected even though each day is a few degrees cooler
than the previous. Wednesday will be the "coldest" day of the
stretch and high temperatures will still be 8-10 degrees above
normal. With PWATs remaining below-normal and general upper level
height rises remaining in place over the region, it should remain
dry through the period. Increased south to southwest breezes will be
possible as the two upper level systems battle it out. Nothing
currently shows a set up that would result in high impact winds,
which matches probabilities for strong wind gusts which are minor to
none. There is a low chance for minor impacts due to wind gusts
over 40 MPH at times, but any impacts would be isolated to wind
prone areas. While there is uncertainty in the overall weather
details as models struggle to resolve the Rex Block pattern and how
it may evolve, the is some confidence that the weather will not be
significantly impactful weather next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds will pick up and swing to the southeast later
this afternoon. These southeasterly winds will continue through mid-
afternoon, occasionally flirting with 10 knots. Winds will become
more southwesterly later this afternoon with 20 to 25 knot gust
picking up this evening and continuing into the overnight hours. FEW
to BKN mid-to-high clouds will filter through the region with bases
aoa 15 kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and
southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light and
variable winds will continue in the Las Vegas Valley through later
this morning when winds will pick up and swing to the south. Winds
will increase and become more southwesterly with 15 to 25 knot wind
gusts during the evening and into the overnight hours. Winds in the
Owens Valley will follow typical diurnal directional trends with
breezier up-valley (southeasterly) winds this afternoon. These
breezier southeasterly winds will transition to the southwest this
evening before decreasing and swinging to the north in a typical
diurnal fashion later tonight. Winds in the Colorado River Valley
will pick up and swing to the south-southwest later this
morning/early this afternoon. 15 to 20 knot wind gusts are expected
at IFP this afternoon and early this evening. Westerly winds will
become light and variable later this morning at DAG. These light and
variable winds will continue through mid-afternoon when winds will
swing back to the west, accompanied by 20 to 30 knot wind gusts.
&&
.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record.
The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).
MAX FRI, APR 11
Record (Yr)
Las Vegas 93 (2023)*
Bishop 86 (2018)*
Needles 102 (1936)*
Daggett 93 (2014)*
Kingman 96 (1936)
Desert Rock 87 (2014)*
Death Valley 108 (1989)
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Stessman
CLIMATE...Meltzer
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