786 FXUS66 KMTR 050322 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 822 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1231 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Fair weather continues over the next several days with cloudy mornings and clear afternoons. Temperatures around seasonal normals with a slight warming trend into next work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 820 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Forecast remains on track tonight with satellite showing our coastal areas beginning to fill in with low marine stratus, similar to what we saw at this time last night. The marine layer will be slightly more compressed tonight which may lead to more coverage in light drizzle and patchy fog by early Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1231 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Very typical seasonable set up going on right now across the region. One notable aspect going on today is a weak surface low in response to a subtle upper-level shortwave trough. That has resulted in temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday, and will likely reinforce some marine stratus and onshore flow for areas south of the SF Bay Thursday morning. Otherwise, Thursday looks like another beautiful day to get outside. Temps closely mirroring that of today with the marine layer deepening slightly, cooling off the coast by a couple of degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1231 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Subtle warming trend on tap into the weekend with an interesting twist. Guidance depicts a subtle cutoff low that meanders off the CA coast into the weekend. Amid a strong ridge that will heat up most of the west, this cutoff low will likely again reinforce onshore flow and keep the marine layer intact. Thus, our temps appear to be moderated by this feature and may actually result in very little noticeable change in the weather through the weekend for most folks. Some hints at larger scale troughing after the end of the extended period, which would result in a more noticeable pattern change. Details on that will be more clear in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Currently VFR with breezy northwest winds observed at most sites. A fairly substantial stratus bank is just offshore with CIGs expected to build in overnight. The marine layer looks to compress to between 500 to 1000 ft overnight which will result in IFR to MVFR CIGs across portions of the Bay Area. Moderate confidence that LIFR-IFR CIGs will develop along the coastline impacting HAF, MRY, and SNS. Fog becomes more likely after 12Z across the North Bay Valleys tomorrow morning which could result in LIFR conditions at least temporarily developing there. Winds ease overnight, shifting southerly to becoming variable at times, before moderate southwest to northwest winds redevelop during the day. Vicinity of SFO...Gusty northwest winds will ease overnight before gradually shifting southerly early Friday morning. Patchy MVFR CIGs are expected to fill into the SF Bay overnight but this is expected to be temporary. This is a slightly more optimistic TAF with the NBM and LAMP guidance indicating that stratus may persist through mid to late tomorrow morning. VFR conditions return by mid to late morning with winds shifting more southwest to westerly and strengthening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs are expected to build back in early this evening with highest confidence in CIGs arriving between 02-03Z with some guidance indicating an earlier arrival closer to 01Z is possible at MRY. Moderate confidence that LIFR CIGs will effect MRY overnight with low to moderate confidence that LIFR CIGs will impact SNS. CIGs look to rise between 15-18Z with full clearing expected after 18Z. Clearing will be short lived with stratus looking to return just after the end of this TAF period. Moderate onshore winds continue this evening before weakening overnight, becoming southerly to variable at times. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1203 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Widespread breezy conditions are affecting the waters with some zones seeing gusty winds causing hazardous conditions for small craft. The northern outer waters continue to see gale conditions. Expect winds to slowly reduce into the late week. A southerly coastal jet will bring strong onshore winds tonight in the San Francisco Bay and in the exposed waters across the Golden Gate. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 820 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Gale conditions continue over the northern outer waters before winds ease early Thursday morning. Breezy to gusty winds and hazardous conditions for small crafts will then continue over the northern outer waters through late Thursday morning. Breezy fresh to strong winds continue within the San Pablo Bay and the inner coastal waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point as a southerly coastal jet develops. Wave heights over the outer coastal waters will continue to abate through the end of the week with significant wave heights to drop below Small Craft Advisory levels by Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea