290
FXUS66 KMTR 111747
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1047 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The daily pattern of the return of marine layer clouds overnight
through the morning hours, some coastal drizzle, and breezy
afternoon onshore winds continues. Temperatures remain in the
upper 50s and into the 60s at the coast, the 70 to 80s for areas
more inland, and into the 90s for the far interior.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Widespread stratus was observed again this morning across the Bay
Area and Central Coast. Stratus is receding a bit faster than it did
yesterday with clearing expected by late this morning/early this
afternoon. No significant changes to the forecast at this time -
planning to keep a close eye on forecast high temperatures for today
in case they need to be adjusted downwards at all due to prolonged
overcast conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The marine stratus push isn`t as widespread as previous nights, but
the coast and favored valleys are still seeing plenty of cloud
cover. The expansion of the marine layer allowed for clouds to be
slightly less lower than previous days, and less pockets of fog.
Short term models are hinting earlier clearing than the last few
days for the North Bay Valleys and the Salinas Valley and less
coastal drizzle chances to start the day.

Some fine-tuning was done on todays temperatures, which are trending
overall cooler than yesterday, but only by a few degrees in the
interior areas, and just barely along the coast. Today is setting up
to be one of the cooler days of the forecast, with a slight short
wave trough enhancing the onshore flow.

Cloud cover will be slower to build inland this evening, with less
overall coverage than this morning, but the coastal cloud cover will
still be strong.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The reduced cloud cover will allow for earlier clearing for all but
the immediate coast on Thursday morning. This will also lead to
warmer temperatures for the the areas that are slightly inland, but
not some much for the interior areas that haven`t been seeing cloud
cover for the last few days.

The persistent zonal pattern aloft will keep the onshore flow going
through much of the forecast, with temperatures mostly being
affected by how much and how persistent cloud cover is each day. A
little less cloud cover for Friday, then a little more for Saturday.
But the variations in day to day temperatures still don`t look to be
terribly drastic. The difference between the immediate coast and
inland areas, however, will still be interesting to say the least
with some potions of the coast sticking to the upper 50s and the
interior areas peaking in the 90s.

The flow does change slightly in the late weekend and into the next
work week as a trough enters the area. The reduction in pressure
from the trough will cause the marine layer to deepen, and lead to
more moisture movement inland. It will also allow some cooling for
the more interior areas, but only slight cooling.

The big question is the speed at which the trough exits and what
happens after. Long-term model agreement seems to be falling apart
into the next work week as some models point to the trough exiting
Monday and going back to zonal flow, while others keep the trough
around for a few days. Some even snap quickly to a ridge pattern,
calling for another warming and drying trend in the mid week. This
will be something to keep an eye on as models continue to try to
figure this on out, be sure to keep checking back in!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Solid marine layer this morning with bases hovering around 1500 ft
and tops hovering around 2000 ft. Clearing of inland clouds was
slow going, but since 17Z a trend of clearing has commenced. That
being said, some of the clearing hold outs will be HAF,SFO,OAK
where a solid onshore feed remains. Do expected VFR all terminals
except HAF this afternoon. Onshore flow ushers cigs back in early
tonight. The tricky part is NE flow developing across the N Bay
keep some cigs out of STS and APC. Onshore flow will also lead to
some gusts GT 25kts for SFO and OAK.

Vicinity of SFO...Solid feed through the Gap will keep cigs
lingering through the 19-20Z time frame. Current TAF will shoot
for 20Z, but there is a 30% chc for earlier clearing. Cigs come
in tonight in the 04-06Z timeframe.

SFO Bridge Approach...No feed impacting approach. VFR.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR at SNS and MRY will be there shortly.
VFR this afternoon. Early return this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 923 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Weak high pressure off the California coast will maintain
northwesterly winds over the coastal waters. Winds will increase
Wednesday leading to locally hazardous conditions with occasional
gale force gusts developing near Point Reyes and south of Point
Sur. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...MM

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