601 FXUS65 KREV 162000 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 100 PM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue into this evening from the eastern Sierra into parts of western NV. * A cold front brings gusty winds and cooler weather Thursday with a few rain and snow showers mainly near the Sierra. * Friday will be dry and cool with north breezes, before some warming returns Easter weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... An area of upper divergence extending from a closed low off the southern CA coast combined with modest instability has produced isolated t-storm activity near the Sierra and into adjacent parts of western NV-northeast CA this afternoon. Widespread areas of mid-high level cloud cover and the resulting cap on daytime heating has limited the storm coverage so far. As we get to the late afternoon-early evening, outflow interactions in areas where cloud cover is thinner could allow additional pulse-type cells to redevelop, but this will diminish after sunset. The best chance (20-30%) for storms appears to favor Mono, Mineral and southern Lyon counties, decreasing to 10-20% chances and sparse coverage farther north across the Tahoe basin, Reno-Carson vicinity and northeast CA/northwest NV. The main effects of today`s stronger storms will be brief heavy rainfall, occasional lightning strikes and outflow wind gusts up to 45 mph. For late tonight-Thursday, the low off the southern CA coast will weaken while a separate upper low drops southward into the eastern Great Basin, accompanied by a cold front. The resulting effect of these systems will be an increase in mainly gradient- driven northwest-north winds across northwest NV during the overnight-early morning (with choppy conditions on Pyramid Lake), then spreading south across the remainder of western NV during the day Thursday. The peak winds are expected across the US-95 corridor with sustained speeds 15-25 mph and gusts 30-40 mph, while channeled winds in north-south oriented valleys of Mineral County could produce gusts over 40 mph at times. A secondary shortwave dropping southward across the Great Basin will keep brisk north winds going Thursday night and Friday, especially in west central NV. Temperatures will cool off to near or slightly below average Thursday and Friday, with highs dipping to near 60 for lower elevations and lower 50s for Sierra valleys by Friday. A drier air mass will limit shower chances across most of the region Thursday, except near the Sierra crest in Mono County, where increased terrain-driven convergence should allow for isolated afternoon shower activity, and about 10% chance for thunder. Dry conditions then prevail Friday. For the Easter weekend, we`ll see flat ridging return to CA-NV, leading to a warmer and drier trend although a major warmup isn`t likely. Highs look to return to the lower-mid 70s for most lower elevations by Sunday, with lower-mid 60s for Sierra communities and areas near the OR border, then hold near these levels for early-mid next week with zephyr-type west breezes each afternoon. A few weak disturbances may affect the region with slightly enhanced breezes and low-end shower chances (up to 10%) next Monday-Wednesday, but significant weather impacts are unlikely. MJD && .AVIATION... Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA may produce brief MVFR conditions for Sierra terminals thru 02Z, then extend into far western NV until 03-04Z. While CIGS/VIS reductions will depend on having a cell form directly over a terminal, gusty outflow winds are a more likely result with peak speeds briefly up to 40 kt possible near stronger cells. Outside of this convection/outflow activity, mainly light prevailing winds become west around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt from 22-04Z. Winds then shift to the north late tonight through Thursday, with gusts 20-25 kt for KRNO-KCXP-KMEV and a little less for KTRK-KTVL. Stronger gusts of 30-35 kt are anticipated for smaller airfields in west central NV on Thursday. Farther south at KMMH, W-NW winds prevail with gusts 25-30 kt Thursday-Thurs night. North winds continue for Friday with gusts up to 20 kt at most terminals. VFR conditions prevail at all sites Thurs-Fri, with dry conditions except about 10-15% chance of -SHRA near KMMH Thursday afternoon. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday NVZ004. CA...None. && $$