366 FXUS66 KLOX 280343 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 843 PM PDT Sun Jul 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...27/732 PM. An upper-level trough anchored along the West Coast will keep a persistent onshore flow pattern in place through Tuesday. Night through morning low clouds and fog will remain in the forecast for most coastal and valley locations. A slow warming trend will take shape through mid week as high pressure aloft over the southeastern United States meanders west. Closer to the coast, onshore flow will keep temperatures below normal. && .SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...27/807 PM. ***UPDATE*** An upper level trough will remain over the West Coast through the next few days, as high pressure gradually builds into the Four Corners region and into southern California. This will bring a slow warming trend to the area through Wednesday, mostly away from the coast. In addition, the marine layer will gradually shrink each day, with low clouds pulling closer to the coast each overnight to morning period. By midweek low clouds will cover the coastal areas and some of the coastal valleys. And while temperatures away from the coast will warm into the 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will remain below normal. Coastal areas will also slowly warm, but only by a degree or two each day. Gusty sundowner winds will persist over SW Santa Barbara County, with gusty onshore winds over interior sections, but should remain below Advisory levels. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...27/210 PM. There is a little bit of uncertainty in the extended period from late this week into early the following week. Most of the ensembles are indicating very little change in temperatures, however, some of the deterministic solutions, particularly the GFS, indicate additional height rises and warming. The disagreements become even greater Sunday and Monday of next week, so confidence during this period is lower than usual. Ensemble solutions have been very steady so the most likely outcome is temperatures near normal. Also of note over next weekend is the likely development of the next tropical system that will be moving west over the Pacific well south of 30n. The upper level pattern across the southwest is not favorable for any monsoon conditions so it is very likely to remain dry, but we may see some increasing south swells by early next week. && .AVIATION...28/0232Z. At 22Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3400 feet with a max temperature of 19 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD. Low confidence in TAF for KSBA, KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY where there is a 40% chance of conditions remaining VFR through the period. Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight cat change may be off by +/- 2 hours for sites north of Point Conception, and by +/- 3 hours south of Point Conception. LIFR cigs are possible for most sites that will see marine layer clouds. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF, with lower confidence in the arrival time of cigs, which may be off by +/-3 hours. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF, there is a 40% chance cigs do not occur. && .MARINE...27/843 PM. High confidence in unseasonably small (but choppy) seas through Monday morning, then seas are likely to build to 5-8 feet across the Outer Waters Monday night and last through the forecast period. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are likely for the outer waters tonight. Will more than likely see a break in SCA winds Monday morning before they redevelop again Monday afternoon, lasting through at least Thursday. The western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel will reach SCA during the evenings though at least Wednesday. There is a moderate risk of winds widespread enough across the Channel to warrant a Small Craft Advisory Monday, followed by a high risk of SCA conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. For Wednesday night, there is a a 30% chance of low- end Gales for the waters beyond 20 miles from shore, with best chances from around Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Ciliberti AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall/CS weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox