863 FXUS65 KVEF 021700 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1000 AM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible through midweek as sufficient moisture and instability remain in the area. Precipitation totals should be light and most activity will take place over high terrain. The area slowly dries out and temperatures begin to climb as a ridge builds later this week. && .UPDATE... The upper low that pushed through the region combined with plenty of low level moisture from former tropical storm Alvin brought widespread precipitation to much of Arizona along with a few areas in southern Nevada. The showers have ended across southern Nevada, but will continue for northwest Arizona for the next few hours. As With plenty of moisture still available we will be looking at showers and thunderstorms redeveloping early this afternoon across central Nevada and Inyo County. Since the air is a bit dryer in those areas, DCAPE is forecast to be between 1000-1300 j/kg. This could lead to the potential for strong wind gusts this afternoon. Another area to watch late this afternoon will be storms developing over southern Lincoln County and pushing into northeast Clark County and eventually Mohave County. These could potentially produce additional storms in Clark County along with gusty outflow winds. Current forecast in good shape and no updates needed. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. The center of the low pressure system will migrate from Arizona into the Rocky Mountains today, while another low moves southeast along the California coast. The forecast area sits between these two features. Very little moisture was scoured out from the eastern system and PWATS between 200 and 300 percent of normal remain over the area. Showers are currently over parts of Mohave and Clark counties early this morning, producing light rainfall and an occasional lightning strike. Lingering moisture combined with instability from clearing skies and surface heating should allow for another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. CAMs show most of the activity starting in the southern Great Basin and eastern Sierra this afternoon where clearing is the best, moving southeast into Mohave and Clark counties in the evening. Most storms should take place over high terrain, but a few of the stronger cells may make it into the valleys. Dry low levels suggest that most of the precipitation will evaporate before it hits the ground with only light amounts at the surface. Some storms may produce gusty outflows in excess of 40 mph. More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as the Pacific low pressure system to moves inland near the international border. Anomalously high moisture remains as seen in continued PWATs between 200 and 300 percent of normal. Most activity should take place over high terrain where lift is the greatest. Forecast soundings suggest these storms will also be high based, capable of producing gusty outflows and only light precipitation at the surface. The HREF indicates 1000 to 1500 J/kg of DCAPE tomorrow afternoon. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday. Weak northwest flow will continue across the region late in the week. A series of weak short waves will move through the flow and interact with lingering moisture, resulting in slight PoPs through early Friday. The best chances will be over the southern Great Basin and Arizona Strip. The remaining moisture should move east of the area by Friday afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation chances. Despite the shortwaves, a high-pressure ridge building over the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico will result in increased 500 mb heights across the Desert Southwest. As such, temperatures will climb back to 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal norms heading into the weekend, and temperatures approaching 10 degrees above normal heading into next week. This will result in desert valleys experiencing high temperatures in the 100s once again, and widespread "Moderate" Heat Risk from Sunday onward. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Early this morning, there will be a chance of light rain at the terminal and ceilings between 8K and 12K feet. Clouds should scatter out later in the morning. Winds will be influenced by the rain showers, with the most likely outcome being an east or southeast direction and speeds of six to 12 knots during the day, although confidence in this is moderate at best. Winds should shift to south southwest around sunset. Earlier, models had hinted at thunderstorms possibly getting close to the terminal after sunset. More recent runs have backed away from that idea, so have removed it from the TAF, but the probability is not zero. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Rain chances this morning will affect Mohave, Clark, Lincoln, and extreme eastern San Bernardino counties, decreasing as the morning goes on. Afternoon thunderstorm chances are expected in Inyo, Lincoln, Mohave, and possibly Clark counties, with the primary threats being erratic gusty winds and low ceilings with terrain obscuration. Thunderstorm chances should end overnight, with smaller chances returning Tuesday. Away from storms, winds should be primarily from the south to southwest with gusts peaking around 15 to 25 knots. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Gorelow SHORT TERM...Meltzer LONG TERM...Planz AVIATION...Morgan For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter