024
FXUS66 KLOX 091746
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1046 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...09/903 AM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue for the
next several days over the coast and valleys with slow, if any,
clearing at the coast. A warming trend will continue through the
middle of the week, mainly for inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...09/914 AM.

***UPDATE***

Same old June story locally with continued marine layer stratus
for coast and valleys and slow clearing through the afternoon. The
marine layer did actually lower a few hundred feet overnight but
that was not as much as expected and thus the beginning of the
warming trend will be more subdued, at least for today. Model
soundings show the marine layer lowering to under 1500 feet
tonight but given recent and past experiences this is probably
optimistic. In any case, minimal impacts other than just not as
warm with longer lasting marine layer.

***From Previous Discussion***

June Gloom continues through the next several days as a weak
upper low pressure system continues to move eastward through the
area and into Arizona today and Tuesday. As the upper low moves
east, a weak ridge will nudge in behind and over the region. This
upper level pattern will allow for a slight rise in
heights/thicknesses through Tuesday, allowing a couple degrees of
warming away from the coast today and Tuesday. For coastal areas,
moderate to strong onshore flow will keep temperatures similar
each day, with plenty of marine layer stratus well into the
afternoons. High temperatures at the coasts will be in the 60s to
70s (within a few degrees of normal), while warmer valleys will
reach into the 80s and 90s (6 to 10 degrees above normal), while
the Antelope Valley will be around 100 degrees (up to 10-12
degrees above normal). Despite being above normal for this time of
year, no temperature records are expected to be broken, nor are
any heat headlines anticipated.

On Wednesday, zonal flow (west to east) in the upper levels will
start to take place as the ridge starts to weaken. The weakening
ridge, combined with heights remaining about the same (compared
to Tuesday) due to the zonal flow, will lead to little change on
Wednesday, save for a degree or two of cooling.

As for winds, the typical afternoon and evening southwest winds
are expected for the Antelope Valley, while weaker sundowner
winds are expected across southwest Santa Barbara County each
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...09/244 AM.

An inland cooling trend away from the coast will continue and
last through at least Friday (and possibly into Saturday) as a
trough moves into the West Coast and 500 mb heights lower slightly
over the region. High temperatures are expected to drop and be
within a few degrees of normal for this time of year. June Gloom
will continue with the typical morning burn off of marine layer
clouds away from the coast, while near the coast, marine layer
clouds will linger into the afternoon. The afternoon onshore winds
will continue to repeat across the interior areas.

Later in the weekend, model agreement starts to drop off and are
mixed on whether high pressure over Arizona will expand west into
California or if the more typical June trough pattern continues.
The latter would be the most likely outcome.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1745Z.

At 1708Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 2400 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 4400 feet with a temperature of 24
degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY. There is a
30% chance for LIFR conds at KPRB between 12Z and 16Z. There is a
10% chance cigs don`t reach KBUR/KVNY tonight, but if they do,
minimum flight cat may be off one and flight cat change times may
be off +/- 2 hours.

Moderate confidence in all coastal TAFs. There is a chance for no
clearing at KOXR (40%), KCMA (30%), KSMO (30%), KLAX (40%), and
KLGB (20%). Otherwise, arrival of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours.
Minimum flight cats may be off +/- one cat when cigs are present.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance for no
clearing today. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2
hours from current forecasts. There is a 20% chance for an east
wind component reaching 8 kts between 12Z and 17Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. Minimum flight
cat may be off by one cat once cigs arrive.

&&

.MARINE...09/809 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds continuing through at least Friday. Seas will
approach SCA levels by Thursday/Friday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For today, there is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For
Tuesday through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level
winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Seas will increase to
near SCA levels by Thursday/Friday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Friday. The exception will be the western half
of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 30-50% chance of SCA level
winds today through Friday, mainly during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lund
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...RAT/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox