447
FXUS65 KVEF 250504
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1004 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Below-normal temperatures and afternoon southerly breezes expected
  to continue through the weekend before temperatures heat up next
  week.

* In general, dry conditions continue through the weekend into early
  next week. Monsoonal moisture increases across Arizona, resulting
  in precipitation chances for Mohave County mid-to-late week.
&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday.

A persistent, loitering closed low off the southern California coast
will allow for continued below-normal temperatures across the Desert
Southwest through the weekend. The resultant southwesterly flow
aloft will help to elevate southerly breezes each afternoon across
the forecast area, with peak gusts between 15 and 25 mph. The
aforementioned closed low will weaken into an open wave over the
weekend before getting swept away by a trough growing across the
western CONUS. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will continue to
build and retrograde across the southern CONUS, which will increase
heights over our region, allowing temperatures to climb back to at-
or-above normal next week.

The dry southwest flow aloft as a result of the closed low off the
southern California coast will keep afternoon relative humidity
values in the single-digits and precipitation chances near-zero
through the weekend. The exception will be along the eastern Sierra
Crest, where there is a 10-15 percent chance of isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity today and Friday afternoon. Next week, a
retrograding area of high pressure over the southern CONUS will help
usher monsoonal moisture into the Desert Southwest. In general, this
moisture will funnel into Arizona and New Mexico, as a trough
digging through the western CONUS will limit moisture advection
further west. Slight (20-40 percent) chances of showers and
thunderstorms exist across Mohave County Tuesday through Thursday.
Moisture content looks modest (0.50 - 0.75"), making erratic gusty
winds and frequent lightning the primary concerns.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Southerly breezes continue tonight and Friday. A slight
southeast component is expected during the late morning and early
afternoon hours, but by the time gusts become more frequent, wind
should shift to a south-southwest direction. Gusts forecast to be
around 20 knots, dropping off near sunset. Few to scattered clouds
at or above 15kft. Temperatures approach 100F from 21z to 01z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds tonight give
way to another day of southerly breezes on Friday. The exception to
this is the KDAG area where winds remain westerly. Gusts generally
in the 15-25 knot range across the region, but locally stronger
gusts possible in the KBIH vicinity. An isolated storm is possible
on the Sierra crest in the afternoon, but impacts in the Owens
Valley are unlikely. Few to scattered clouds at or above 12kft.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Woods


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