390
FXUS66 KLOX 071748
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1048 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/244 AM.

Temperatures today will be either below or near normal, followed
by a noticeable warming trend starting Tuesday. The heat spell
will peak on Wednesday and Thursday, with many areas 5 to 10
degrees above normal. Some cooling is expected by the weekend,
followed by another warming trend early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...07/336 AM.

Today will be one last day of either below or near normal
temperatures before a noticeable warming trend starts on Tuesday.
The cooling impact of the upper low off the coast of NorCal will
diminish starting Tuesday, as high pressure currently centered
over Arizona and New Mexico strengthens and noses into the SoCal
region. Warming will occur across the entire region, but will be
the most dramatic away from the beaches and coastal plains, where
moderate onshore flow will dampen some of the heat. This heat
spell will peak on Wednesday and Thursday, with many areas around
5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures are most likely to peak
at 95-103 degrees for inland valleys, 100-105 across the deserts,
and near 90 for inland coastal areas including Downtown LA. The
chances for widespread highs 10-15+ degrees above normal (that
would warrant extensive Heat Advisories/Warnings) has decreased,
thus confidence has increased for the current temperature
forecast.

Moderate HeatRisk is expected for much of LA County (except for
the beaches), meaning that heat will affect sensitive individuals
such as outdoor workers or those without air conditioning or
adequate hydration. Some interior areas across the counties north
of LA will also see Moderate HeatRisk. At this point, there is a
chance for some Heat Advisories to be issued, though they would
be rather borderline. The hot spell will also bring fire weather
concerns across all non- coastal areas, as well as southwest
Santa Santa Barbara County. Dry and hot conditions will combine
with some areas of gusty winds, including onshore winds across the
interior and northerly Sundowner winds for SW Santa Barbara
County.

There is a brief window of southeasterly upper level flow for the
region that may bring some monsoonal mositure and PWATS of 1+
inch late Tuesday through Wednesday, thus there is around a 5
percent chance of thunderstorms focused over the Antelope Valley
and San Gabriel mountains.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...07/307 AM.

Thursday`s temperatures will be similar to Wednesday, if not
slightly warmer by 1 to 3 degrees. Friday the high pressure ridge
will gradually weaken in strength, though it is likely to remain
over the region through the weekend, and very strong onshore
surface pressure gradients will return, leading to several degrees
of cooling. Most areas will see HeatRisk dropping to the Minor
category Friday through the weekend with Temperatures reaching
below normal by Saturday. The one exception will be some interior
areas such as the Antelope Valley, the western San Fernando
Valley, and the Cuyama Valley, that will remain well above normal
with Moderate HeatRisk. There is a developing signal for monsoon
moisture moving into the area by around the 16th of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1745Z.

At 1708Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 4000 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Overall, moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of
CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by 2 hours for KSBP/KSMX and 3
hours for other airfields. Flight cat minimums may be off by one
category. There is a 40% chance of IFR CIGs at KLGB. There is a
10% chance of LIFR cigs arriving from 10Z to 16Z Tue at KBUR/KVNY
-otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 10% chance of
LIFR CIGs ~004 10Z to 16Z Tue. Lowest confidence in timing of CIGs
returning (+/- 3 hrs). No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 10% chance of
LIFR cigs arriving from 10Z to 16Z Tue. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.MARINE...07/825 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely across the
waters around Point Conception and the Northern Channel Islands
late this afternoon and evening (Moderate confidence). Better
chances on Tuesday. High confidence in SCA level winds expanding
across the rest of the Outer Waters and moderate confidence for
the Inner Waters along the Central Coast Wednesday through
Thursday. Seas are likely to remain below SCA thresholds through
the period.

Inside the southern California bight, moderate confidence in SCA
level winds in the western and southern portions of the Santa
Barbara Channel Monday with local SCA level wind gusts in the
eastern portion as well as near Point Dume, and into the
San Pedro Channel. High confidence in widespread SCA level winds
across the Channel and the Inner Waters off the LA and OC coasts
including nearshore on Tuesday. Chances for SCA winds back off
Wednesday and Thursday, but remain moderate for the western and
southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel along with local
gusts near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel. Choppy,
short period seas will be common Tuesday.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters overnight and in
the morning hours through the period, with best chances in the
waters off the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to
      midnight PDT tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis/Black
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox