295
FXUS66 KLOX 230705
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1205 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...22/735 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog are expected for the
coast and some vlys through this week into the weekend, otherwise
mostly clear skies are expected. Gusty northerly winds will
continue across southwestern Santa Barbara County through early
Monday. Temperatures are expected to turn cooler Monday and
Tuesday then warm again later in the week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...22/953 PM.

***UPDATE***

Today saw plenty of warming with minimal marine layer clouds, as
temperatures peaked in the upper 70s to upper 80s for warmer
valleys and portions of the interior. Cooler 60s and 70s were
common near the coasts. Winds have eased off over the San Gabriel
mountains, which saw impressive gusts into the 60s and 70s last
night. But gusty Sundowner winds have developed over western
portions of the Santa Ynez Range this evening, and are expected to
weaken in the next few hours. Tonight, a low pressure system will
approach the region from the north, leading to falling heights
and marine layer deepening. May consider adding light drizzle to
areas that see marine layer clouds with this system passing
through. Given current satellite imagery, expecting a more
continuous layer of stratus to affect the Central Coast tonight
into Monday morning, and portions of LA County is also expected
to see marine layer clouds and fog, pushing into the valleys.

To start off the week, Monday looks slightly cooler, with highs
limited to the mid 80s over the interior. Expecting another round
of sundowner winds Tuesday night, and continued expansion of
marine layer clouds. Aside from some small changes to the stratus
forecast tonight into Monday night, the current forecast looks on
track.


***From Previous Discussion***

An upper level low (571 dam at H5) over nrn CA is forecast to
drop S to about Tulare/Kings Counties in the San Joaquin Vly on
Mon then push east into NV Mon night. SW CA will be in the
southern part of the upper level low`s circulation on Mon into
Mon evening. Upper level troffiness with H5 heights around 580 dam
will prevail on Tue, followed by some upper level ridging
starting to build in on Wed along with rising H5 heights to around
586 dam.

The marine layer pattern will quickly return tonight and Mon
morning, with a good eddy developing and extensive low clouds
expected over much of the coast into the adjacent vlys. This
pattern should continue into Wed with the night and morning low
clouds and some fog for the coast and vlys, altho a shallower
marine inversion Tue night should limit the inland extent some.
Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly clear skies can be expected for
the most part through Wed. However, on Mon the upper level low
should bring a few afternoon cu to the VTU County mtns, and even
though there will be some instability there just is not enough
moisture expected to develop anything more.

Another round of Advisory-level Sundowner winds is expected for
SW SBA County late this afternoon thru late tonight thanks to
decent northerly pressure gradients expected in this area. As a
result, a Wind Advisory will be issued with the afternoon zones
for wind gusts up to 45 mph and the potential for isolated gusts
to 50 mph in the Gaviota Pass area. Winds for Mon thru Wed should
be fairly typical for late June with breezy to gusty afternoon SW-
NW winds across the region.

Temps are expected to turn cooler on Mon, especially S of Point
Conception, then warm a few degrees each day thru Wed. Highs will
continue to be several deg below normal on Mon, then warm to
normal to perhaps a few degrees above normal by Wed.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...22/205 PM.

The extended models are in pretty decent agreement Thu thru Sun.
Upper level ridging will persist over srn CA Thu and Fri. The
upper ridging will move E into the Great Basin for Sat and Sun,
while an upper level trof develops over the E Pac. H5 heights will
remain rather high thru the period over SW CA and be about
588-590 dam overall.

The marine layer pattern will continue thru the extended period,
with varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and fog from
the coast to some of the adjacent vlys. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies can be expected. Breezy to gusty SW-NW afternoon winds will
also prevail thru the period. Temps are expected to be generally a
few degrees above normal for many areas, with only subtle day-to-
day changes.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0704Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 2500 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR conds prevailing at KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.

Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs except low confidence at KSBA.
There is a 20 percent chance that VFR conds prevail at KOXR and
KCMA and a 40 percent chance of low MVFR conds for KSBA between
14-22Z. Flight category changes may be off by 2 hours, except up
to 3 hours for return to VFR.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
east wind component reaching 8 kts at times from 10Z to 16Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. There is a 20% chance for
brief IFR cigs from 11Z to 15Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...22/738 PM.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are
expected through Monday morning. Local Gale force wind gusts (35
kt) cannot be ruled out this evening. There are moderate chances
(20-30%) for low- end SCA winds during the afternoon and evening
hours Tuesday through Thursday, especially around Point
Conception. Seas are expected to fall well below SCA criteria
Monday through Wednesday and will likely remain sub- advisory
through the rest of the workweek.

For the Inner Waters, SCA winds are expected through around
midnight tonight along the Central Coast and the western Santa
Barbara Channel and short period seas at SCA levels are likely
through late tonight. Otherwise, conditions appear to generally
remain below SCA levels next week. However, there is a chance for
low- end SCA winds at times along the Central Coast and western
portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/Sirard
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Sirard/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox