309
FXUS65 KVEF 082211
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
311 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures continue to climb through midweek under a
ridge of high pressure. Extreme Heat Warning in effect for the lower
elevations of the Mojave Desert Monday and Tuesday before
temperatures gradually decline through the remainder of the week.
Isolated thunderstorm activity will continue each afternoon across
the southern Great Basin, with primary impacts being frequent
lightning and gusty winds. Otherwise, expect breezy southwest winds
each afternoon this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.
A closed area of low pressure off the southern California coast will
weaken into an open wave as it moves inland across the Mojave Desert
today and Monday. This low will tap into remnant moisture across the
region and will use diurnal heating to its advantage... resulting in
afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Best
moisture exists across the southern Great Basin, where isolated
thunderstorm chances are greatest. That said, "best moisture" means
about 0.40 to 0.70 inches of PWAT (which is 100-150% of normal for
this time of year). So, while the moisture is anomalous, there`s not
much of it to result in flash flooding impacts or heavy rainfall.
Expect frequent lightning and erratic, gusty winds, with brief
moderate rainfall possible. In general, most storms will simply
produce virga (rain that evaporates before reaching the surface).
With DCAPE values between 1200 and 1600 J/kg, gusty winds between 30
and 40 mph are expected with stronger storms. Expect similar
conditions Monday and Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a growing area of high pressure centered over northern
Mexico will allow temperatures to rise to 8 to 12 degrees above
seasonal normals. Temperatures will peak Monday night (warm
overnight lows) and Tuesday (hot afternoon highs). As such, the
Extreme Heat Watch was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning on the
previous shift. This warning goes into effect Monday and Tuesday for
northwestern San Bernardino, far southern Nye, Death Valley National
Park, lower elevations of Clark County (including Las Vegas), and
the Colorado River Valley (including the Lake Mead National
Recreation Area). In these areas, HeatRisk will be "Major" (level 3
on a scale of 0 to 4). Major HeatRisk means that the heat affects
everyone who does not have access to adequate cooling or hydration.
If you have plans recreating outside on Monday or Tuesday in these
areas, it is recommended that you schedule your activities during
the cooler parts of the day and bring more water than you think
is necessary.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.
A strong area of low pressure will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska
into the Pacific Northwest mid-to-late week. As this occurs, a
trough will extend along the California coast, placing our forecast
area between the aforementioned trough and a strong area of high
pressure over northern Mexico. The resultant tightened pressure
gradients will return breezy southwesterly winds to the region each
afternoon Wednesday onward.
This trough has trended slower with each model run. Originally, it
was going to drop temperatures closer to seasonal normals heading
into this weekend. Now, though temperatures do gradually decrease,
they remain 5-8 degrees above normal, with desert valleys staying in
the triple-digits. This trough will retrograde into the Pacific
Ocean and loiter off of the California coast into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package... There
remains a slight chance (20-30% percent) of occasional southerly
gusts above 15 mph this afternoon, but will not be frequent enough
to include in the prevailing TAF. Monday afternoon, thunderstorm
formation on the Spring Mountains will result in a 20% chance of
breezy west winds (10-15 mph) impacting the terminal with
directional variability between 180 and 230 (true). Otherwise,
expect light winds following typical diurnal trends through the
forecast period with no operationally significant cloud cover.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will favor the mountains of the southern
Great Basin this afternoon, which will result in gusty north-
northwesterly winds at KBIH later this afternoon. Otherwise, no
impacts to area terminals. Expect gusty west winds at KDAG between
25 and 30 kts around sunset tonight. Otherwise, light winds
following typical diurnal trends expected through the TAF period
with no operationally significant cloud cover.
&&
.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.
The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).
MAX MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr)
Las Vegas 111(1985) 109(2022)* 109(2022)*
Bishop 104(2013) 103(2022)* 104(2022)*
Needles 118(1955) 121(1910) 122(1918)
Daggett 110(1985) 110(1994)* 110(2022)
Kingman 106(1955) 109(1921) 107(1918)
Desert Rock 105(2013)* 104(2022)* 105(2022)*
Death Valley 126(2013) 125(2013) 122(2022)
The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).
WARM MIN MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr)
Las Vegas 86(2016) 84(2014)* 89(2022)
Bishop 61(2010) 65(1985) 62(1973)
Needles 87(2022) 88(1902) 90(2022)
Daggett 77(2014)* 77(2014)* 80(2022)*
Kingman 76(1978) 76(1955) 74(1921)*
Desert Rock 86(2016) 79(2016) 83(2022)
Death Valley 96(2013) 92(2016)* 94(2022)*
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Soulat
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