593
FXUS66 KLOX 261649
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
949 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...26/931 AM.

A persistent onshore flow pattern will continue into early next
week as an upper-level trough remains anchored to the north of the
area. Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue
across most coastal and valley locations. Late night and early
morning drizzle cannot be ruled out. A slow warming trend will
begin Sunday but temperatures will remain below normal into next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...26/948 AM.

***UPDATE***

The upper level pattern continues to favor below normal
temperatures for the next several days so aside from some gusty
afternoon winds across the Antelope Valley very low impact
weather is expected locally. The marine layer was 3000 feet deep
this morning across the LA Basin, sloping down to around 2000 feet
along the Central Coast so low clouds have pushed much farther
inland and will take longer to clear than is typical late July.
Some high clouds approaching from the southwest may provide some
enhanced sunset colors this evening.

Forecast sounding do indicate at least some lowering of the
marine layer tonight, possibly by as much as 50% so less inland
extent and earlier clearing is expected tomorrow with 2-5 degrees
of warming.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, the area will remain sandwiched
between a trough over the Eastern Pacific and a ridge gradually
building over the Central states. Near the surface, moderate
onshore pressure gradients will continue to the east with weak
northerly offshore gradients.

Forecast-wise, benign late July weather will continue through the
period. From day-to-day, H5 heights will gradually increase as the
ridge slowly expands westward over the desert Southwest. As this
pattern evolves, the marine inversion will become more shallow
through Monday. So, with the onshore pressure gradients, stratus
and fog will still develop, but will have less inland extent each
night. Other than the stratus, skies should remain mostly clear as
just some scattered high clouds drift overhead from time to time.

As for temperatures, today will be the coolest day for all areas.
However, a slight warming trend is expected for Sunday and Monday
with the rising H5 heights and lesser marine influence. Despite
the warming trend, high temperatures will continue to remain below
seasonal normals through Monday.

Finally with respect to winds, no significant issues are expected.
Any Sundowners that develop the next couple of evenings look to
remain below advisory levels.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...26/225 AM.

For the extended, 00Z models continue to be in good synoptic
agreement. The upper level pattern will remain rather unchanged
with the area between a trough over the Eastern Pacific and a
ridge building over the desert Southwest.

Forecast-wise, H5 heights look to fluctuate slightly day-to-day
through Friday. So, the overall daily change in sensible weather
will be minimal. Stratus/fog will continue to be an issue during
the night/morning hours for the coastal plain and coastal valleys.
Otherwise, skies are expected to remain mostly clear.

As for temperatures, again, subtle changes day-to-day are
expected. Essentially, high temperatures will comfortably a couple
degrees below normal for most areas through Friday.

As for winds, do not anticipate any significant issues. Continued
onshore gradients will generate the usual gusty southwesterly
winds across interior sections each afternoon, but speeds will
remain below advisory levels. Additionally, any Sundowners that
develop will also be on the weak side, remaining below advisory
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0929Z.

At 09Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was 3500 feet with a temperature of 17 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD with seasonably
gusty southwest winds.

Moderate confidence in persistence (similar to previous 24 hours)
ceiling timing (+/- 2 hours) and heights (+/- 300 feet). High
confidence in MVFR categories being prevalent, with a 40% chance
of brief IFR 10-15Z at KPRB KSBP KSMX each night. KSBA KBUR
KVNY did not get ceilings last night, but have a 60% chance of
getting clouds early this morning and again tonight.

KLAX...High confidence in wind forecast, moderate confidence in
timing (+/- 2 hour) and flight categories (MVFR likely, 20%
chance of brief IFR 10-15Z). High confidence in any southeast
winds staying below 8 knots.

KBUR...60% chance of MVFR ceilings forming for 3-5 hours in the
10-16Z time window this morning and Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...26/823 AM.

High confidence in unseasonably small but choppy seas through the
weekend. Moderate confidence in low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
winds from Point Sal to San Nicolas Island tonight, becoming more
likely Sunday and Monday nights while expanding northward. The
western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel will reach low-end
SCA during this period, with this evening likely widespread across
the channel, thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued.

Winds will increase Tuesday and Wednesday Night, with a 30% chance
of reaching low-end Gales for the waters beyond 20 miles from
shore.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Sunday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Thompson
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Kittell/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox