354 FXUS66 KLOX 081621 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 921 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...08/911 AM. A warming trend will begin today and peak Wednesday and Thursday, with many areas 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will return to near normal over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...08/920 AM. ***UPDATE*** The warming trend is beginning today (mainly south of Pt Conception) with many areas already 5-10 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday. A decrease in morning stratus along with weaker onshore flow will provide another warming factor for southern areas. For northern areas the upper low is still having a cooling influence with a deeper marine layer so any warming there today will be minimal. Overall forecast remains on track with additional warming Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast highs are still mostly below heat advisory levels so for now no heat advisories are planned for this event. ***From Previous Discussion*** High confidence in a significant warm up through Wednesday with continued well above normal temperatures focused away from the coast through Thursday. The warm up is attributed to a rapidly building ridge from the east through Wednesday and offshore trends from the north during this period as well. High temperatures will likely peak around 70 right at the coast to near 90 warmer interior coastal areas such as Los Angeles, while warmer valleys will see highs 95 to 105+. These temperatures are borderline advisory level with a 20-40 percent chance of hitting Heat Advisory thresholds mainly for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara Counties and away from the coast. Night to morning clouds will likely continue near the coast each day with the potential for dense fog, especially Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Although monsoon moisture may interfere with low cloud development for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, potentially leading to mostly clear skies save for some mid to high clouds Wednesday and Thursday in particular. Breezy northwest to onshore winds will continue through Thursday with advisory level Sundowners becoming likely (60 percent chance) for southwest Santa Barbara County Wednesday and Thursday evenings. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue away from the coast with the potential for rapid fire growth with new fire starts. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...08/346 AM. A slow cool down is likely Friday into Saturday with reduced heat risk across the region. There is a 50 percent chance of the ridge rebuilding early next week with another round of at least moderate heat risk (widespread highs in the 90s and 100s away from the coast). The ridge may wobble into a favorable position for monsoonal showers or thunderstorms at times early next week, but low confidence on when and if this will happen. Gusty onshore winds may approach advisory levels for prone inland areas such as typical mountain corridors and Antelope Valley foothills. Low clouds may push back into lower valleys during this period, especially if a moderate eddy forms by Friday morning in the wake of the Sundowners. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue away from the coast with the potential for rapid fire growth with new fire starts. && .AVIATION...08/1254Z. At 1204Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 3200 feet with a temperature of 22 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF, KPMD, KVNY, and KBUR. Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight category changes may be off by +/-1 hour this morning, and +/- 2 hours this evening. Cigs may scatter and reform until 16Z Tue at KLAX, KSMO and KSBA. There is a 30% chance of IFR cigs at KLGB from 14Z-16Z Tue. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may scatter and reform until 16Z today, and there is a 30% chance of VFR conditions through this morning. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...08/327 AM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected to develop this afternoon across all the waters south of Point Conception. SCA winds will last through late tonight for the Santa Barbara Channel and the inner waters off the coast of LA and Orange Counties, with a 50% chance of returning Wednesay afternoon, and choppy wind- driven seas will be prevalent this afternoon through Thursday. SCA winds are expected to last well into Thursday night for the southern outer waters. North of Point Conception, SCA winds are likely to spread into the area Wednesday afternoon. SCA winds likely to last for the inner waters north of Point Sal through Wednesday evening, and return again Thursday afternoon/evening. Across the northern outer water, winds are favored to persist into Thursday night, with seas nearing 10 ft. Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters overnight and in the morning hours, with best chances in the waters off the Central Coast, Tuesday night through Thursday morning. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Munroe AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox