340 FXUS65 KVEF 272152 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 252 PM PDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Intermittent showers are expected to linger across portions of the Southern Great Basin through Monday as a system departs the area to the east. Monday through the end of the week, a warming trend is expected, with above normal temperatures returning areawide. A weak system will move through the area midweek with little fanfare, ahead of a much more potent system next weekend that looks to bring another round of precipitation chances and cool, windy conditions. && .SHORT TERM...through Monday night. The low pressure system responsible for the breezy to windy conditions, unseasonably cool temperatures, clouds, and precipitation across portions of the region continues slowly translating east-northeastward this afternoon. Given ascent in closer proximity to the low as well as orographic support, intermittent showers have been the rule across the Southern Great Basin today, with light snow for locations above 5000ft. Snow levels continue to rise, with precipitation expected to gradually diminish through tonight. Amounts received have generally been light, under a tenth of an inch, except for a few localized spots in northern Lincoln County where upwards of two tenths of an inch of precipitation has been received. While instability is certainly limited, brief gusty winds around 30 to 40 mph can be expected along with any shower activity, even if precipitation doesn`t reach the ground. Away from this activity, winds remain westerly to southwesterly and intermittently gusty, with winds expected to veer to the northwest and north tonight in the wake of the departing system. Heading into Monday, temperatures begin rebounding as thicknesses increase, with highs around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, but still around 3 to 5 degrees below normal for late April. Warming will be tempered somewhat by continued northerly flow at the surface and aloft, along with lingering cloud cover and a low chance (10 to 20%) for wrap-around showers to redevelop across portions of Nye and Lincoln Counties Monday afternoon. While winds will be noticeably lighter for most on Monday, there will be localized stronger winds across Esmeralda, northeastern Inyo, and central Nye Counties where intermittent northwesterly gusts to 25 to 30 mph are expected. Dry conditions are expected areawide by Monday night, with lows following suit and trending upward, expected to be in the 50s and 60s across lower elevations and upper 30s and 40s in the mountains. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. Model clusters are in good agreement through Thursday before beginning to diverge Friday and especially Saturday. As low pressure moves away to the east, the overall flow should shift from northerly on Tuesday to northwesterly on Wednesday. Another, weaker low is forecast to pass by to the north on Wednesday. The main question is how deep this low might be, which would be one determining factor in how far south precip chances might get. The overall consensus is for a weak solution, which would limit precip chances to the far northern fringes of our area, although there are a few outlying stronger solutions. As high pressure moves in from the Pacific on Thursday, this low should get trapped over our area in a configuration similar to a Rex block. If the low is indeed weak, its only effects on our area could be clouds and a few degrees less warming than the high pressure would imply, but if the outlying stronger solutions verify better, showery weather could come into play. The next trough in the westerlies should reach the West Coast Friday or Saturday and move inland, kicking out the aforementioned low and bringing increasing winds and precip chances along with cooler temperatures. At this point, it looks like Friday should be the warmest day, with high temperatures areawide about 10 degrees warmer than on Monday, although this would change if the stronger solutions come to pass. Saturday could be the windiest day, although this would change if the speed of the incoming trough changes. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Southwest gusts of 20 to 25 knots will continue well into the evening before diminishing. Gusts will end after midnight, and it is possible that a period of light and variable winds could occur around daybreak. A shift to the northwest is expected between 15Z and 17Z, and gusts to 20 knots have been added to the TAF with this shift. Any gusts that occur should decrease in frequency as we move into the afternoon while winds remain out of the north. VFR conditions will prevail through Monday with bases remaining AOA 15kft AGL. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described for Harry Reid, except the shift to the north on Monday will be earlier for KVGT and later for KHND. At KBIH, winds will remain mainly northerly with speeds less than 15 knots through Monday. Gusty south to west winds will persist across the western Mojave Desert and Colorado River Valley into the evening. Winds will decrease in the valley overnight, but gusty conditions will continue into Monday morning at KDAG before decreasing. VFR conditions are expected area- wide through Monday, with bases generally remaining AOA 10kft AGL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Phillipson LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter