687
FXUS66 KMFR 021716
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1016 AM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

VFR conditions are expected through this cycle. Main item of
interest will be the breezy wind speeds today under mostly clear
skies. However, will need to monitor the marine push tonight as
we may see clouds increase along the coast which could bring MVFR
conditions (~20%), but confidence was higher to keep conditions
VFR at this time.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 448 AM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025/

DISCUSSION...The forecast for northern California and southern
Oregon remains on track for today. An upper ridge settled over the
Pacific Ocean is the main influence on area conditions, bringing
continuing stable weather. Temperatures are expected to warm
today, generally staying st or 5 degrees above seasonal norms.
Expect additional breezy to gusty winds this afternoon and
evening.

Please see the previous discussion for additional detail on the
short- and long-term forecast. -TAD

AVIATION...02/12 TAFs...VFR levels under clear skies look to
continue through TAF period for most areas. Gusty winds are expected
to return this afternoon and evening, with North Bend seeing the
strongest winds. Wind speeds decrease across the area tonight into
Tuesday morning. Additionally, marine stratus may start to build
over areas north of Cape Blanco tonight. -TAD

MARINE....Updated 300 AM Monday, June 02, 2025...Gusty
northerly winds continue to build very steep and hazardous seas with
possible gale gusts south of Coos Bay, with steep seas present north
of Coos Bay. This pattern looks to persist through Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday afternoon, winds and seas improve slightly. Gale gusts
will be limited to waters south of Gold Beach, while very steep and
hazardous seas will affect other waters south of Cape Blanco through
Wednesday afternoon. Steep seas will be present in waters north of
Cape Blanco.

Northerly winds look to sustain unsettled seas through the rest of
the week and possibly through the weekend, although further
improvements are possible towards the end of the week. -TAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025/

DISCUSSION...There will be some, but little day-to-day change in
conditions from this afternoon through Wednesday. Our weather
will be characterized by gusty, stronger than typical northerly
winds, relatively weak downslope warming for Brookings producing
highs in the 70s, temperatures a few to several degrees above
normal inland, and (mostly) a stable air mass. There will be one
exception, the slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast is
warranted with weak instability ahead of a trough late this
afternoon into the early evening in southern and far eastern Modoc
County.

One area that will see some changes will be the coast from Cape
Blanco northward, into the Coquille Valley. Night and morning low
clouds will be few again on Monday morning, then some modest
increase in coverage for early Tuesday morning, ahead of a deeper
and more widespread push of marine stratus for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This will make it a little cooler on the first
two mornings in comparison to Wednesday, but afternoon`s will
persist with near normal temperatures and gusty northerly winds
that will be strongest during the afternoons.

The weak upper trough currently along the far northern California
coast will cut off and drift southwestward on Monday. This will
allow our area to become more influenced by the northern branch
of the upper level flow pattern, with persistent ridging centered
far offshore.

From Thursday through Sunday. The aforementioned night and
morning coastal stratus is expected to be a persistent feature
from around Port Orford northward, with inland temperatures
gradually trending warmer and peak afternoon winds trending
slightly weaker (nudging back to around normal) as the ridge
builds.

As we get into next weekend, uncertainty in the upper level
pattern creeps in. About 25% of ensemble members develop
instability and an influx of mid-level moisture that could support
thunderstorms (with a majority of this cohort focused on the east
side). But, that leaves 75% of the variations which continue
something more closely resembling the hot and dry status quo from
Friday. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ350-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.

     Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$