141 FXUS66 KHNX 260555 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1055 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .UPDATE... Aviation Updated && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a 10 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Sierra Nevada Crest through Saturday, especially in the high Sierra near Yosemite National Park. 2. Dry lightning is possible today in developed storms due to a probability less than 30 percent for greater than 0.10" of rain. 3. Cooler, below-average temperatures and breezy conditions continue until the weekend, with some fire weather concerns. 4. Minimal change in the overall weather pattern with a slow warming trend Sunday into next week. A return to triple digits is possible across the San Joaquin Valley by Tuesday and the Kern County desert by Monday. && .DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough remains centered inland southeast of the SF Bay Area. This feature will gradually push further inland into the weekend. Thus, high temperatures will persist at near to below average while breeziness will continue along the prone areas of near the coastal ranges and along the Mojave Desert slopes until Saturday. A gradual warming trend begins Sunday into next week as ridging builds into Central CA. Highs near 100 degrees become a possibility in the SJ Valley (15-35 percent) by Tuesday and a greater chance (45-75 percent) into the Kern County desert by as early as Monday. Otherwise, expect mainly seasonal temperatures with highs in the upper 90`s in most valley locations. Steady temperatures last well into next week. In the meantime, there remains the slight chance for isolated dry lightning towards Yosemite National Park today, per the Storm Prediction Center. A slight chance for thunderstorms will continue into Saturday over the Sierra Nevada to as far south as Tulare County. Probabilities are near 30 percent at Yosemite and lower to around 10 percent into Tulare County. Prime time will be early afternoon until the evening each day. Beyond late next week, the potential for near average temperatures will continue. For reference, average high temperatures across the Central Valley are in the upper 90`s through the first week of August. && .AVIATION... 06Z Update VFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin valley for the next 24 hours. Slight chance to a chance (10%-30%) of thunderstorms will exist across the Sierra Nevada Crest from Yosemite to Tulare County between 18Z Sat and 03Z Sunday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...BSO aviation....JPK weather.gov/hanford