119 FXUS65 KREV 251928 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1228 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Thunderstorm activity continues today through Sunday. Potential impacts include heavy downpours and flooding, strong outflows, small hail, and lightning. * Cooler than normal temperatures expected for the rest of the week and the weekend. * A gradual warming and drying trend returns early next week, bringing highs up to near or slightly above normal. Showers linger into early week. && .DISCUSSION... Today`s setup is going to provide plenty of moisture and instability to kick up some afternoon storms, similar to yesterday, but with higher chances and more widespread coverage. The placement of the low circulation over central California is creating upper level flow that will induce faster storm motions toward the north over the Sierra for storms that initiate south of US-50. To the north of the Tahoe Basin, storm motions will be slower and move to the west, allowing for more opportunity for heavy raining storms to induce flooding. Reports from yesterday`s storms rolling through left 0.25-0.50 inches of rain for some locations. Areas that have not yet dried out are expected see more showers and storms today, so we are watching for flooding potential, especially over recent burn scars and flood prone areas. Storms may produce more rain today, with PWAT yesterday around 0.6 inches and today`s checking in higher at 0.8 inches. Similar to yesterday, other hazards are to include gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. Keep your eyes to the skies this afternoon if you have outdoor plans today, and remember, When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! Showers that initiate over/near lakes could cause increasing wave heights as the gusty outflows have been producing winds of 30-40 mph. Saturday, we stick with our scheduled program of widespread storms with chances ranging 30-60%. Saturday`s showers will have shifted slightly eastward, so leeside valleys that remain dry today have another opportunity to catch a few drops in their rain gauges. Similar to today`s storms, the risks will still include heavy rain, flooding, frequent lightning, small hail and gusty outflow winds. Shower and storms stick with us for Sunday, as the slow-moving low circulation waits to be swept eastward by the upper level trough that will drop southward along the Pacific Northwest coast as it deepens and intensifies. This feature currently is moving off the Alaskan coast into the Gulf of Alaska, and will become more influential as it draws nearer. Chances for Sunday drop to around 15- 35%, with the greatest chances south of the Tahoe Basin, along US- 50. In fact, the influence will continue through early week as showers appear in long range guidance well into midweek. Around the midweek timeframe, potential develops for some high-based thunderstorms that could produce dry lightning. Warming temperatures early next week will help to support instability as it increases along the Oregon border in to NE California and NW Nevada. HRICH && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions this morning will give way to MVFR conditions for some terminals as afternoon storms return to the region. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions as storms form, including LLWS, turbulence and mountain obscuration due to heavy rains. Showers today arrive in earnest around 21z, although some showers could develop as early as 20z. Storms should wrap up around 03z or until sunset, with the later showers hanging around Tahoe basin terminals KTVL and KTRK. Chances today around 40-60% for all terminals. * Storms return Saturday, with similar chances, timing and hazards. HRICH && .FIRE WEATHER... * Widespread thunderstorm chances today and Saturday, with chances ranging 30-60%. Humidity will remain elevated through Saturday, however a lightning strike outside of the wet cores of storms may ignite receptive fuels. Frequent lightning is expected through Saturday. * Sunday, lowering relative humidity at the surface along with instability aloft will provide an environment that could produce dry lightning. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$