463 FXUS65 KREV 050758 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1258 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Shower and thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon through Friday in the Sierra mainly south of Tahoe through Mono County. * Slightly above average temperatures through Thursday will be followed by a warmup with increasing HeatRisk this weekend and early next week. * Thunderstorm chances and coverage may increase this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Our warming trend has commenced and we`ll continue to warm up each day into the weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue along the eastern Sierra from Lake Tahoe down through Mono County each afternoon through at least Friday. The SPC has the Sierra crest from Truckee southward under general thunderstorms today through Saturday. Additionally, our zephyr breezes will be back each afternoon through mid-next week. Our upper level pattern today through Friday consists of a couple weak shortwave troughs which are setting the stage for the convection along the Sierra. SBCAPE values today through Friday will range between 500-600 J/kg, right around the lower end of what`s typical around here in the summertime. The shower and lightning chances are roughly the same each afternoon with around a <40% chance. In southern Mineral County there`s a 10-15% chance for a stray shower with similar chances for lightning through Friday. DCAPE looks to be around 700-900 J/kg, so expect outflow gusts around these storms to get up to 35-45 mph. Again, the main impacts from these thunderstorms today through Friday include gusty outflow winds, small hail less than 0.25" in diameter, occasional lightning, and heavy downpours. Starting Saturday, a cut-off low off the coast will stall out and sit offshore, increasing chances for thunderstorms along the Sierra crest from northeast CA down to Mono County. There is still a lot of variability in the models for storm coverage this weekend due to different solutions of where that low is going to track. The GFS and EC diverge around Sunday, though Saturday there is still some uncertainty in where the showers will be, if any. But what is certain this weekend are the temperatures. Keep your sunglasses, water bottles, and hats handy because western NV is looking to rise into the mid-90`s and in the Sierra the low 80`s Saturday-Tuesday. This weekend through early next week there will be widespread Moderate heatRisk with small pockets of Major HeatRisk across western NV. -Justin && .AVIATION... Winds will be light and mainly from the west today, with gusts 15-20 kt at all area terminals in the afternoon. There`s a 30-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms near KMMH this afternoon between 20Z-02Z. KMMH may see erratic gusts around the thunderstorms up to 30 kt. Primary impacts from thunderstorms include gusty/erratic winds, small hail <0.25", and occasional lightning. KTRK may see brief IFR/LIFR conditions with patchy early AM fog mainly between 11-14Z for the next couple of mornings, and a bit of haze due to recent nearby controlled burns. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the Tahoe area and far western NV terminals through Friday, with less than 10% chance for thunderstorms for KTRK and KTVL. MJD/Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$