162
FXUS66 KLOX 260250
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
750 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...25/158 PM.

Night and morning low clouds and fog will affect the coasts and
some valleys, otherwise mostly clear skies are expected across
the area with gusty onshore winds each afternoon. Temperatures
will continue to turn a bit warmer tomorrow, with little change
over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...25/749 PM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion early this evening ranged from around 1200
ft deep at LAX to near 1500 ft deep at VBG. Low clouds were noted
along portions of the coast this evening from the Central Coast to
the VTU/L.A. County coast. The low clouds are expected to expand
overnight along these coastal areas and move inland to the
adjacent vlys. Northerly flow across southern SBA County this
evening should preclude low clouds from moving in until late
tonight as the winds slacken. Elsewhere and otherwise, mostly
clear skies will prevail across the forecast area overnight.

SBA-SMX pressure gradients at 02Z were at -3.0 mb. These
northerly gradients will help to bring some gusty mainly sub-
Advisory Sundowner winds to southern SBA County this evening but
would not be surprised to see isolated gusts to 40 or even 45 mph
especially around Gaviota pass. Gusty sub-Advisory westerly winds
over the Antelope Vly will diminish some overnight.

Current forecast is in pretty good shape and do not anticipate
any updates this evening.

***From Previous Discussion***

Weak ridging (586 dam today Thursday to 589 dam Saturday) at the
upper levels will remain over the area in the short term. If you
are a fan of June Gloom, you are in for a real treat the next few
days.

While marine layer clouds receded quickly across most of the area
today, some stubborn low clouds are hanging around at the coasts
north of LA County. Low cloud coverage will be relatively similar
Thursday through Saturday compared to today, with slightly less
coverage into the valleys. Onshore flow to the east will tick up a
notch Thursday and be relatively stagnant through Saturday, while
onshore flow to the north will bump up Thursday and Friday with a
slight bump Saturday. Because of the uptick in onshore flow to
both the east and west, marine layer clouds will be slower to
clear from the coasts, with Friday and Saturday being the most
stubborn to clear.

The biggest jump in max temperatures is occuring today, with
valleys and interior sections 5 to 10 degrees higher than at this
time yesterday, while the mountains are generally 8 to 15 degrees
higher than this time yesterday. A warm up of a few degrees will
occur Thursday, then minor fluctuations will occur Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures will generally be within a few degrees of
normal save for the beaches in western Santa Barbara County and
San Luis Obispo County, where they will be between 5 and 10
degrees below normal. Max temperatures at the beaches today will
be within a couple degrees of 70 for much of the area, and around
65 degrees in western Santa Barbara County and San Luis Obispo
County. This will be the story through Saturday as well. The
valleys will generally be in the 80s, but isolated pockets of
90-91 degrees are likely in warmest areas. Further into the
interior, temps will remain in the 90s in the foothills and lower
elevation mountains and will approach triple digits across the
Antelope Valley and Cuyama Valley.

As far as winds go, light Sundowner Winds will occur across the
extreme southwestern portion of Santa Barbara County late this
afternoon through tonight. Gusty NW-W winds along the I-5 corridor
will also occur tonight. Healthy afternoon onshore LAX- DAG
gradients (~8mb Thursday through Saturday) will result in gusty
W-SW winds each day through Saturday across the Antelope Valley
and foothills.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...25/158 PM.

Synoptically, the GFS and EC both show the development of a
relatively high height trough off the coast of California. Heights
will be around 585-587 dam Sunday and will only fall a couple dam
once the trough moves across Southwest California Monday through
Tuesday. There is a little more disagreement between the GFS and
EC for Wednesday, as the GFS shows remnant weak troughing around
586 dam and the EC shows the trough cutting off into a 579 dam low
spinning off the coast of Central California.

There will be relatively little day-to-day change in temperatures
across the entire area. Beaches will be in the upper 60s to low
70` each day and the valleys will mostly be in the 80s, touching
the low 90s in warmest areas. The interior will see temperatures
in the upper 90s and approaching the low 100s, with warmest
temperatures in the Antelope Valley, foothills, and lower mountain
elevations. If the GFS prediction comes to fruition, a slight
warming trend will be the likely outcome, especially away from the
coast. On the other hand, the EC would result in a slight
cooling.

Persistent onshore flow (~8mb LAX-DAG gradients) will bring gusty
W-SW winds each afternoon and evening to the Antelope Valley, and
typical sea breezes will be slightly stronger. We aren`t out of
the June Gloom pattern yet, as morning low clouds and fog will
continue across the coasts and some valleys through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0247Z.

At 0120Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3300 ft with a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD and KWJF).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight cat minimums
off by one.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
IFR CIGs (007-009) through 14Z Thu. East wind component is
expected to remain below 6 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence 00Z in TAF. There is a 20% chance cigs
do not arrive through fcst period.

&&

.MARINE...25/207 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected across the Outer
waters through Thursday night. A lull in winds just below SCA
levels is likely for eastern portions in the morning. SCA winds
are likely again on Thursday across the inner waters along the
Central Coast during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a
low chance across western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel
during the same timeframe.

For the weekend, relatively benign conditions (light winds and
calm seas) are expected across the coastal waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 1 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 1 AM PDT Thursday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/Sirard
AVIATION...Phillips/Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox