616
FXUS66 KLOX 070526
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1026 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...06/108 PM.

Temperatures will continue to be either below or near normal
through Monday. A noticeable warming trend will start Tuesday,
and heat will peak Wednesday and Thursday, with most temperatures
6 to 12 degrees above normal. Some cooling expected over the
weekend bringing temperatures to near normal, then warming
temperatures again the following week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...06/804 PM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion this evening ranged from near 1000 ft deep
at LAX to around 1700 ft deep at VBG. Low clouds were noted along
portions of the Central Coast and L.A. County coast early this
evening. These low clouds are expected to expand along much of the
coast overnight and expand inland some especially along the
Central Coast. Patchy low clouds may push into the L.A. County
vlys for areas closer to the coast by late tonight. Elsewhere and
otherwise, mostly clear skies will prevail overnight.

Breezy to gusty SW to NW winds were noted over much the region
this evening, strongest over some foothill, mountain and desert
areas. Isolated wind gusts to near Advisory levels are possible in
these areas this evening, otherwise winds will diminish for most
of the region overnight.

The current forecast in the short-term is on track and do not
anticipate any updates this evening.

***From Previous Discussion***

An upper low continues to meander off the northern California
coast through Monday which will keep temperatures on the cooler
side with a steady dose of marine layer stratus that may reach
into the coastal valleys later tonight. Highs Monday expected to
very similar or slightly cooler than today.

The low will slowly get nudged north and then east as building
high pressure from Arizona pushes into California. This will bring
about a warming trend in all areas but more so inland than the
coast. Models today actually came in a little cooler with the
950mb temperatures, even though the strength of the ridge remained
unchanged from previous runs. This will be a battle between the
moderate onshore flow at the surface subsidence and resulting
lowering of the marine layer as we move into Tuesday and
Wednesday. But for now felt that trimming a couple of degrees off
the forecast highs was appropriate and will see how the higher res
models and ensembles adjust over the next couple days. With the
modest lowering of highs decided to table any heat advisory
issuances for now.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...06/141 PM.

Very little change or slightly warmer on Thursday, then a cooling
trend will develop Friday through next weekend as onshore flow
increases in response to another weak upper low moving into the
Pac NW and far northern California. The ridge over southern
California will weaken slightly as well but remain in place. By
next Sunday and going into the following week most of the
ensembles indicate an even stronger ridge developing for a return
of hotter temperatures, potentially hotter than this week. There
is also a developing signal for monsoon moisture moving into the
area by around the 15th of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0523Z.

At 0451Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1000 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 4200 feet with a temperature of
24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Low confidence in TAF for KPRB after 10Z Sun. There is a 30%
chance of LIFR cigs arriving. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR
conditions.

Low confidence in TAF for KSBA. There is a 40% chc of no low
clouds at KSBA through the period.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off by 2 hours and min flight cat by one
category. There is a 30% chance of LIFR conds at KOXR/KCMA from
10Z to 15Z Mon. There is a 15% chance of LIFR to IFR cigs at
KBUR/KVNY between 09Z and 16Z, but confidence in minimum flight
cat is low.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may bounce between SCT and
BKN 005-010 through 08Z-10Z. Departure of CIGs may be off +/- 90
mins. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance for LIFR
to IFR cigs from 09Z to 15Z, with low confidence in minimum flight
cat.

&&

.MARINE...06/807 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will continue across the
Northern Outer/Inner Waters through this evening, and through late
tonight for the waters south of Point Conception. Moderate
chances for SCA level winds are expected to stay confined to the
waters south of Point Conception Monday & Tuesday, before
expanding to include most of the Outer Waters Wednesday and
Thursday. Seas are likely to remain well below SCA thresholds
through Wednesday.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate chance
of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening through mid-week
across western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Local gusts up to 21 kts may occur near Point Dume, and into the
San Pedro Channel during the aforementioned time. Significant wave
heights are expected to remain well below SCA thresholds.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north
of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 11 PM PDT this
      evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Black/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox