902 FXUS66 KMTR 070909 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 209 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Warmer temperatures return Wed. through the weekend with patchy Moderate Heatrisk across the Bay Area and Central Coast. - Localized elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday through the weekend across portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. - Slight risk (20-40%) of extreme heat for far interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast July 12th-14th. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 203 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 (Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures are expected across much of the region again today with highs running between 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. What does that look like? Well, temperatures across the interior will only reach the mid 70s to 80s today while coastal areas stay in the upper 50s to 60s. Looking at Santa Rosa, the forecasted high for today is 75 degrees but the average high is typically around 82 degrees. For Concord, the average high is typically around 88 degrees but the city is looking at temperatures closer to 82 to 83 degrees today. These cooler temperatures are in large part thanks to an upper level closed low that continues to linger offshore of the Bay Area. The presence of this closed low has allowed the marine layer to deepen and spread further inland, resulting in widespread overcast conditions and cool, moist air spreading further inland. Current observations from the Fort Ord Wind Profiler place the marine layer depth around 1800 ft with further deepening to 2000ft-2500ft expected through the remainder of today. Cloud cover looks to dissipate across the interior by mid to late morning but clearing is less likely to occur along the direct coastline. Outside of areas where terrain funneling is likely (mountain gaps/passes), winds generally remain light and onshore through the rest of today. Winds have diminished across the marine environment and along the shoreline as well. This is due to the Pacific High weakening and shifting westward (away from our shoreline) with the upper level closed low lingering just offshore. The combination of weaker winds and more moist inland conditions is helping to lower our fire risk in the short term. However, it is important to remember fuels, both large and small, are continuing to dry across the region with special emphasis on the higher elevations above the marine layer. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 203 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 (Tuesday through Sunday) Cooler, below normal temperatures are expected again on Tuesday as the upper level closed low remains offshore. The marine layer will deepen to around 2000ft to 3000ft by Tuesday with stratus able to make it farther inland Monday and Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to 80s across the interior and upper 50s to 60s along the coastline. Tuesday into Wednesday, the closed low offshore will start to weaken and shift northward before gradually moving inland along the Oregon/California border. At the same time, upper level ridging over the Four Corners Region will start to compress and spread into Southern California. The center of the high pressure will be located over Southern California, Southern Nevada, and Arizona where heat products are set to go into effect for those regions later this week. The forecast is a little more uncertain for the Central Coast and Bay Area. To start things off, a warming trend is on track to begin Wednesday with most sites to see near seasonal temperatures as highs warm back into the 80s across most of the interior. While high pressure builds across Southern California Thursday and Friday, the upper level pattern shows a flatter, more zonal to slight troughing over the Bay Area. While we are expected temperatures to continue warming Thursday and Friday, the more zonal to slight troughing will help to keep temperatures slightly cooler than those to our south with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The hottest locations continue to be the southern most portions of the Interior Central Coast which is on the edge of the center of the high pressure over southern California. Temperatures across the interior Central Coast will be in the mid 90s to low 100s Thursday and Friday. In terms of HeatRisk, pockets of moderate HeatRisk continue across urban in the Bay Area, interior North Bay Mountains, and far interior Central Coast. Remember to take breaks and drink plenty of water if participating in outdoors activities on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures cool slightly into the 80s to 90s over the weekend upper level troughing becomes slightly more distinct across Northern California. Temperatures across the interior Central Coast will remain fairly stable in the mid 90s to low 100s over the weekend as high pressure continues over Southern California. A few isolated pockets of moderate HeatRisk will continue across urban areas and the North Bay Interior Mountains but will not be widespread enough to be very impactful. Winds remain light and onshore through this weekend with locally breezier winds across mountain gaps and passes (Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley). As mentioned in the short term, both small and large fuels are drying out with warmer temperatures increasing the likelihood of further drying Wednesday into the weekend. This does result in localized elevated fire weather concerns, particularly across the higher elevations above the marine layer, Wednesday through the weekend. While winds remain fairly light and onshore, small fuels have cured and larger fuels are drying out so extreme caution is needed if participating in any outdoor activities involving sparks or flames. Remember, most wildfires are started by human activities. One less spark, one less wildfire. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 937 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Marine layer holding steady around 1 kft going into the overnight hours, and will persist into the morning hours. Most terminals that get cigs overnight will likely see LIFR/IFR, and more likely to be teetering IFR/MVFR around the SF Bay. Reasonably good confidence in timing forecasts as clouds build in tonight, and high confidence that stratus will hold on to much of the immediate coastline through the day Monday. Breezy onshore flow during the afternoons, nothing out of the ordinary in terms of wind. Vicinity of SFO...Decent confidence in the timing of stratus affecting the vicinity of the terminal, but less confidence if persistent stratus will actually settle in over the airfield. Slightly shallower marine layer allowing for some drying as air descends the San Bruno Gap, so there is some uncertainty with how much the northern part of the Bay will fill in. Otherwise, high confidence in clearing time Monday morning, should cigs fill in over the terminal. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR/IFR overnight tonight with reasonable confidence in mid-morning clearing to VFR and mostly SKC throughout the rest of Monday. Marine stratus expected to return just after sunset. Earlier along the immediate coast. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 937 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Winds continue to diminish over the outer waters tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes persist across the coastal and outer waters through the middle of the week. Winds increase by the latter half of the week with moderate to fresh breezes expected. Building seas across the outer waters late in the week as a modest northwesterly swell enters the picture around 9 to 10 feet at 9 seconds. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Behringer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea