709 FXUS65 KREV 261902 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1202 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Thunderstorms will pose a risk of heavy rain and flooding, small hail, strong outflows, and frequent lightning today. * Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue through next week with a potential uptick in storms Wednesday and Thursday. * Typical summertime conditions of warm weather and breezy afternoons to end the month. && .DISCUSSION... Weak low pressure aloft centered near Lake Tahoe maintains a favorable overlap of moisture and instability for additional thunderstorms today. Coverage today will be similar to yesterday with best chances of 30-60% between the Sierra/NE California and the US-95 corridor, and north of Mono Lake. This includes Tahoe communities, the Greater Reno-Carson-Minden area, Fallon/Fernley, and frequented lakes such as Lake Tahoe, Pyramid, Frenchman, Topaz Lakes, and Lahontan and Bridgeport Reservoirs. Thunderstorm activity likely peaks between 1 PM and 7 PM PDT, but a few shower/storms may hang around until 10 PM in some spots. Unseasonable deep-layer moisture yielding PWATs of 0.7-0.8" and slow/moderate storm motions will promote heavy rainfall and a 5-15% chance of flash flooding with today`s storm -- especially in and below burn scars and urban locales. Pea to marble-sized hail, strong outflows gusts of 60+ mph, and frequent lightning will also accompany mature thunderstorms. Propagating outflows may produce areas of blowing dust in the W NV Basin and Range this afternoon, especially near desert sinks and playas. A slow drying trend begins Sunday and continues through Tuesday, which will decrease thunderstorm potential but not completely remove them from the forecast. There will still be 15-25% chance of showers and isolated storms each afternoon for our typical areas from NE CA into the Surprise Valley/N Washoe County, and in the Alpine-Mono- Mineral County vicinity. Elsewhere, lesser odds of 10-15% will exist early next week. Another weak low pressure passage may provide a boost in thunderstorm chances/coverage Wednesday and Thursday. On the bright side, this weather pattern has been keeping heatwaves at bay and will continue to do so through next week. It`ll be a warm week with daytime highs near 80F and 90F for Sierra and western Nevada communities, respectively. -Salas && .AVIATION... Thunderstorms will be the main concern today with the greatest likelihood (30-60% chance) at KTRK-KTVL and KRNO-KCXP-KMEV between 20Z and 02Z. Expect strong outflow gusts of 40+ kts, small hail, and frequent lightning, with heavy downpours reducing CIGS/VIS to MVFR conditions at times. There`s better potential for storms farther east today, which may result in blowing dust impacts to KNFL-KLOL- KHTH among the aforementioned t-storm impacts. Additional storms are expected Sunday afternoon, although chances and coverage decreases. -Salas && .FIRE WEATHER... Extensive thunderstorm activity will support abundant lightning this afternoon and evening, although heavy rainfall will mitigate the potential for dry lightning. Still, new lightning starts will be possible outside of rain cores. A brief drying trend will reduce thunderstorm chances and coverage Sunday into early next week, but also means dry lightning becomes more likely with isolated storms. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$