496 FXUS65 KVEF 140345 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 845 PM PDT Sun Apr 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of the week along with some gusty winds at times. Low confidence in the forecast late-week, as we continue to assess the possibility for a return of precipitation chances, gusty winds, and lower temperatures. && .UPDATE...It was a warm and pleasant end to the weekend with highs anywhere from 2-10 degrees above normal across the area. The anomalous warmth and light breezes continue through mid-week. A weakening system approaching from the south tomorrow will bring widespread clouds and maybe even some sprinkles Monday afternoon/evening, but otherwise dry conditions persist for now. By mid/late week, a stronger system looks to move in and settle over our area. Gusty winds, much cooler temperatures, and precipitation chances (potentially even some storms) are expected as this occurs. && .SHORT TERM...through Tuesday. The trough that brought the cooler temperatures to the region today is expected to form a closed low off the central California coast Monday and eventually interact with a closed low currently off the southern California coast. The low off the southern California coast will eventually get kicked northeast into Arizona Tuesday as an open wave. As this shortwave move through it is expected to increase the PWs to around 150 to 200 percent of normal; however, there is very little in the way of forcing as much of the energy should remain east of Mohave County. Still, a few light rain showers will be possible Tuesday over the higher terrain of Mohave County with amounts generally a few hundredths or less. Elsewhere, temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through Tuesday keep the Heat Risk in the "Minor" category. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Next Weekend. After a brief break in the action Wednesday: another, more potent system may impact the region late Thursday into the weekend. In the past 24 hours, models have taken a turn and are now trending towards a solution where a Pacific Northwest low digs into the region and phases with a low sitting off the southern California coast, rapidly deepening somewhere over the western US as it does so. There is significant model differences in how this will play out, then add in the inherent low confidence in models resolving phasing systems- there is high uncertainty in the forecast Thursday through the weekend. The current "worst case" 90th percentile 48hr QPF has significantly increased in the past 24 hours and suggest higher impacts than what it was showing yesterday. There is now a 30% chance for over 0.50inch of rain through the weekend in parts of southern Nevada and western Arizona when it was showing less than 10% regionally at this time yesterday. Also of note, the spread in high temperatures on Friday is anywhere from 5-10 degrees above normal to 10-15 below normal. Winds would be the other concern with this system as it deepens over the area- especially if we see the colder solution (a significant drop in temperatures would suggest gusty winds with a strong temperature gradient). All this to say- there is potential for impactful weather the end of next week but it`s too early to say if it will happen or what those impacts would look like. Changes are expected in probabilities for impacts and weather details with this system- Stay tuned! && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light south or southwest winds expected through around 8-9z before uncertainty in a possible wind shift arrives. Winds may shift to the northeast at 6-9 knots or remain light and southerly through the remainder of the early morning hours. By daybreak, northeasterly winds will overspread the valley if they haven`t already with a few gusts to around 18 knots possible. Winds will ease through the day and shift back to the south by Monday evening with increasing mid and high level clouds with CIGS descending to around 15kft AGL. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Tonight, the strongest northerly gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected in the favored terrain areas from southern Lincoln County through the Laughlin/Bullhead City area. Winds are expected to become easterly to southeasterly over much of the region on Monday, with only spotty gusts over 20 knots. Mid level clouds will increase from south to north late in the afternoon, with spotty virga and gusty winds. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Woods SHORT TERM...Gorelow LONG TERM...Nickerson AVIATION...Outler For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter