942 FXUS66 KLOX 251713 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1013 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS...24/421 PM. Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue to be a staple of the forecast for most coast and some valley locations through Sunday. Persistent onshore flow will remain in place through the weekend over the California coast and keep an onshore flow regime across the area. Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side of seasonal normals into early next week, then a warming trend should start to develop as onshore flow weakens. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...25/933 AM. ***UPDATE*** The marine layer is currently between 2000-2500 feet deep, which can be observed especially north of Point Conception where clouds have overspread much of San Luis Obispo County and western Santa Barbara County. Skies will clear by late morning for southern areas, and likely by the early afternoon for northern areas. Sundowner Winds across southwestern Santa Barbara County will continue through Sunday, with local gusts near 45 mph expected for wind prone areas this evening into night. Sundowner winds will generally trend weaker by the weekend. Onshore east-to-west surface pressure gradients will again yield gusty afternoon and evening winds across the interior today. Winds will be strongest for the Antelope Valley and foothills, with gusts of 25-35 mph (local gusts to 40 mph for wind prone foothills) expected to be common today. ***From Previous Discussion*** Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, the area will be influenced by a low over Central California, but for Saturday/Sunday high pressure building over the central States will exert more influence. Near the surface, moderate onshore gradients will persist to the east with weakening northerly offshore gradients. Forecast-wise, the rather benign weather will continue across the area with stratus coverage the main forecast challenge. For tonight and Saturday, H5 heights lower a bit which will allow the inversion to deepen a bit and stratus should push a bit further inland. By Saturday night/Sunday, H5 heights start to increase which will reduce the depth and coverage of the marine layer stratus. Other than stratus, skies should remain mostly clear through the period. As for temperatures, expect minor day-to-day fluctuations. For today and Saturday, will expect a cooling trend of a couple degrees for most areas with continued marine influence and lower H5 heights. However on Sunday, with less extensive marine layer and some increase in H5 heights, most areas should warm up a few degrees. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...25/346 AM. For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement. At upper levels, high pressure will shift a bit eastward near the 4 Corners area Monday/Tuesday before retreating back east a bit on Wednesday/Thursday. Near the surface, moderate onshore gradients will continue to the east with weak northerly offshore gradients. Forecast-wise, Monday and Tuesday will be nicest days of the week with limited marine layer and high temperatures hovering around seasonal normals. Winds do not look to be an issue for Monday and Tuesday, with both the onshore winds in the afternoon and any Sundowners remaining below advisory levels. For Wednesday and Thursday, H5 heights lower a bit. This will allow for a couple degrees of cooling in many areas with a bit of an increase in stratus/fog during the night and morning hours. && .AVIATION...25/1711Z. At 1629Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 4000 feet with a temperature of 17 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD. Moderate confidence for remaining TAFs. There is a 40% chance of IFR CIGs at KPRB from 10Z to 16Z Sat. Flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours and minimums by one category. KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of CIGs may be off by +/- 2 hours. Good confidence in MVFR CIGs 010-015. No significant easterly wind component expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of CIGs may be off by +/- 2 hours. CIGs may scatter out at end of forecast period (15Z-18Z Sat). && .MARINE...25/812 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across PZZ673/676 and a 30% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in SCA level winds for PZZ673/676 with a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel in the late afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance of SCA level wind elsewhere across the Southern Inner Waters. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the late afternoon and evening hours with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere across the southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Thompson AVIATION...Black MARINE...RAT/Black SYNOPSIS...Hall/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox