055
FXUS66 KMTR 230523
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1023 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Quiet weather on tap for the upcoming week, with the return of
coastal clouds and potential for overnight fog. Temperatures
gradually return to near seasonal averages, especially for inland
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

A quiet weather pattern prevails over the region this afternoon as
an upper level trough remains placed over the Intermountain West.
This feature will continue to shift to the north-northeast with a
secondary low developing over northern California. However, the main
driver of our weather will be the high pressure over the eastern
Pacific with a gradual warming trend to more near seasonable norms
on Monday. This should bring a deepening marine layer now at around
500 feet in depth to around 1,000 feet by tonight. The question
remains, how much coastal stratus develops (none currently within
100-150 miles of the coast via satellite imagery). The HRRR
indicates the best chance for stratus to be along the San Francisco
Peninsula and the Monterey Bay region late tonight and early Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Tuesday and beyond, ensemble and cluster analysis indicate a high
probability for troughing to quasi-zonal flow across the region.
This will allow for a modest marine layer to be in place throughout
the week with late night and early morning stratus and/or patchy fog
to penetrate inland into the coastal adjacent valleys. Any low
clouds that do develop will mix out each afternoon and giving way to
mostly sunny sky conditions. Onshore flow also is expected throughout
the week with an increase in winds during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1013 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025


CIGs are building along the coast affecting HAF, SNS, and MRY.
These CIGs look to fall to IFR levels overnight. Moderate to
breezy winds last through much of the evening before reducing into
the night. Expect mostly light to moderate winds through the late
morning and early afternoon on Monday. CIGs at MRY and SNS look
to have some moments of clearing overnight from an eddy in the
Monterey Bay, but CIGs look to mostly prevail until the mid to
late morning before eroding and getting back to VFR. HAF looks to
keep CIGs through the TAF period. Expect another round of moderate
to breezy winds again for Monday afternoon that will linger into
that evening. Monday evening and overnight shows strong potential
for a stronger marine stratus push, leading to more TAF sites
seeing IFR CIGs for that night.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts through Monday evening. Breezy winds
last into the early night before gusts cut off and winds become
moderate. Expect a few moments of thin clouds to move through the
San Bruno Gap overnight, but not enough to fill over the terminal.
Breezy winds return Monday afternoon and last into that evening
before becoming light as IFR CIGs build.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR and IFR CIGs are filling around the
Monterey Bay. CIGs lower to IFR levels into the night. An otter
eddy forms in the middle of the Monterey Bay overnight, which
could lead to pulling and pushing of CIGs and fairly short periods
of scattering/clearing over the terminals. VFR conditions return
in the mid to late morning as CIGs erode and winds become more
moderate. Winds reduce into Monday evening as IFR CIGs return.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1013 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Hazardous marine conditions for small craft continue across the
waters with strong northwest breezes, and rough seas. Conditions
will  improve on Monday, but northwest breezes remain fresh to
strong  and seas remain moderate to rough through Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ006-506-
     508.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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