<pre>552
FXUS66 KEKA 222257
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
257 PM PST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The next round of heavy rain and strong wind returns
tonight night through early Wednesday. Strong winds are possible
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rain, mountain snow, and
strong winds are expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier
weather is finally possible by the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional moderate to heavy rain likely tonight through early
Wednesday.

- Strong winds possible Tuesday night through Wednesday.

- Additional heavy rain and strong winds possible Wednesday night
through Friday.

- Mountain snow above 4000 ft possible Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Tonight through Wednesday...

Another round of rain will move through the area starting tonight.
High resolution models are showing this plume moving into Mendocino
and Lake Counties tonight and moving northward and westward.
Precipitation is forecast to enhance in the late morning and early
afternoon once again bringing moderate to heavy rain. Total rain
amounts through Wednesday morning is around 1-3 inches with locally
up to 4 inches in the higher terrain. Heavy rain on already
saturated ground will once again support rises in small streams,
creeks, and main stem rivers. See the hydrology section below for
more information.

Strong south winds are likely with this system Tuesday night into
Wednesday as an area of low pressure rapidly builds off the coast of
California. High Wind Warnings have been issued for Mendocino, Lake,
and southern Humboldt Counties, while Wind Advisories have been
issued for the Humboldt Coast, Del Norte, and Trinity Counties.
Gusts of 50-70 mph are possible in the lower elevations along
coastal headlands, wind prone areas, and channeled terrain. Locally
higher gusts are possible in the higher elevations. These winds
along with the saturated grounds could to downed trees and power
outages. This is expected be a relatively short period of winds,
perhaps for a few hours, before easing by the afternoon. However
this is only the first round of strong winds.

Snow levels are forecast to drop Wednesday to between 4000 and 4500
ft. This is low enough to bring heavy snow to the high mountain
passes including Scott Mountain Pass at Highway 3 and the highest
passes along Highway 36.

...Thursday through Friday...

The deep trough digs southward towards the northern California coast
Wednesday night into Thursday. A surface low located right off the
coast will lead to some uncertainty on the location of the
associated winds and rain. Southerly wind gusts are once again
likely to be strong again Thursday. Greater instability could
support these winds to be stronger than the winds Wednesday,
especially in the lower elevations. The worst case scenario shows
gusts of 50-60 mph across much of the area, and this will need to be
watched.

Cold air moving in from the deep trough could support lower snow
levels and greater instability. Snow levels may drop further to 3500-
4000 ft. The cold air aloft could support small hail showers and
isolated thunderstorms along the coastal areas Thursday and Friday.
Total snow amounts of 2-3 ft through Friday is possible at Scott
Mountain pass, while up to a foot is possible above at the highest
passes of Highway 36 (around 4000 ft), depending on how much the
snow levels lower.

NBM chances for over 2 inches of rain in 24 hours from Wednesday
afternoon to Thursday afternoon are again 60-80% from about Cape
Mendocino and southward. Chances fall to 10-30% north of Cape
Mendocino, however any additional rain is likely to be impactful
with saturated soils. Chances increase for an additional 2 inches of
rain Thursday into Friday are already 30-50% south of Cape Mendocino
and 10-20% north of Cape Mendocino. In all, 3-6 inches of additional
precipitation are expected through Friday. A break in precipitation
finally arrives this weekend. JB


&&

.AVIATION...VFR and a few showers expected this evening for all
terminals. Light to moderate rain is forecast to increase across the
southern portion of the area this evening, specially for KUKI where
IFR and LIFR will likely develop into Tue morning. Light rain and
MVFR conditions will be possible for the coastal terminals KACV and
KCEC after 18Z Tue. Low level wind shear and turbulence is likely to
increase late Tue afternoon and Tue night at all terminals.


&&

.MARINE...Gale and storm force winds are forecast Tuesday night into
early Wednesday as a compact low accelerates northeastward across
the waters. Large and very steep seas are expected on Wednesday in
the wake of this storm. Another powerful storm is forecast to bring
strong winds and large steep waves mid to late week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...All rivers have crested and have started to recede. The
Eel River at Fernbridge is the only one still within flood stage,
and should drop below flood stage this evening.

The next rounds of rain are likely to produce flooding impacts again
across the area. While most ensemble members show the heaviest rain
heading to Mendocino and Lake Counties again, significant rain is
still likely for the entire area. Small stream, creeks, and main
stem rivers are all likely to see impacts again. It is also possible
the focus of the heavier rainfall will shift north again. Currently
the Russian River at Hopland the Navarro river at Navarro are
expected to reach flood stage again. The Eel river and the Mad river
are expected to be close to flood stage, but not expected to exceed
it at this time. This will need to be monitored closely.

Additional rounds of heavy rain will promote flooding impacts in
small streams, creeks, and urban areas. With the ground saturated,
any additional rain could  be impactful given there is little time
for basins to drain.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Friday
     evening for CAZ101>115.

     Wind Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 9 AM PST
     Wednesday for CAZ101-103.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for
     CAZ102-105.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PST Wednesday
     for CAZ104-106.

     Wind Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 10 AM PST
     Wednesday for CAZ107-108.

     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for CAZ107-108.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 6 AM PST Wednesday
     for CAZ109>115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ455-475.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ455-475.

     Storm Warning from 10 PM Tuesday to 6 AM PST Wednesday for
     PZZ455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for
     PZZ470.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png</pre>