268
FXUS66 KMTR 222032
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
132 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Quiet weather on tap for the upcoming week, with the return of
coastal clouds and potential for overnight fog. Temperatures
gradually return to near seasonal averages, especially for inland
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

A quiet weather pattern prevails over the region this afternoon as
an upper level trough remains placed over the Intermountain West.
This feature will continue to shift to the north-northeast with a
secondary low developing over northern California. However, the main
driver of our weather will be the high pressure over the eastern
Pacific with a gradual warming trend to more near seasonable norms
on Monday. This should bring a deepening marine layer now at around
500 feet in depth to around 1,000 feet by tonight. The question
remains, how much coastal stratus develops (none currently within
100-150 miles of the coast via satellite imagery). The HRRR
indicates the best chance for stratus to be along the San Francisco
Peninsula and the Monterey Bay region late tonight and early Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Tuesday and beyond, ensemble and cluster analysis indicate a high
probability for troughing to quasi-zonal flow across the region.
This will allow for a modest marine layer to be in place throughout
the week with late night and early morning stratus and/or patchy fog
to penetrate inland into the coastal adjacent valleys. Any low
clouds that do develop will mix out each afternoon and giving way to
mostly sunny sky conditions. Onshore flow also is expected throughout
the week with an increase in winds during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Generally VFR conditions continue through the day. Breezy northwest
winds will develop this afternoon through the evening, although
gusts will not be as strong as yesterday`s peaks, with the terminals
seeing gusts at 20 to 25 knots at strongest. Overnight through
Monday morning, IFR stratus returns to the immediate coast and the
Monterey Bay. Low confidence for stratus returning to the SF Bay
Area at this time, as high resolution ensemble model output has
overdone stratus coverage probabilities in the region this morning.
Will monitor upcoming forecasts in case the probability increases.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with a low
confidence for stratus at the northern edge of the terminal
tonight and Monday morning. Breezy northwest wings gusting to 25
knots will develop this afternoon and evening, diminishing
overnight before resuming Monday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the day with breezy onshore
winds this afternoon and evening. High confidence in IFR stratus
developing at MRY this evening through Monday morning, moderate
confidence for the same at SNS. Stratus mixes out close to the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1018 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Widespread hazardous marine conditions continue for the waters
with strong northwest breezes, gale force gusts, and rough seas.
Conditions improve on Monday, but northwest breezes remain fresh
to strong and seas remain moderate to rough through Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight PDT
     tonight for CAZ006-506-508.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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