805
FXUS66 KLOX 271606
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
906 AM PDT Sun Apr 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...27/411 AM.

It will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool today with a slight
chance of lingering showers. There will be less in the way of
cloudiness Monday and especially on Tuesday, with a warming
trend. Highs should be near to slightly above normal in many areas
by Tuesday. A few degrees of cooling is likely Wednesday, with
minor day to day changes in temperatures for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...27/831 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate cloud coverage
increasing across the area this morning. Doppler radar detecting
some isolated showers across the Central Coast. As for winds,
westerly gusts in the 20-30 MPH range are currently observed
across the mountains and desert foothills.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no real adjustments to
the night shift`s thinking. Cyclonic flow over the area today will
allow for a couple vort lobes to move across the area. With a
deep moist layer in place, there will be a chance of showers just
about anywhere through early this evening. Fortunately, any
showers that develop should remain very light, only producing a
few hundredths of an inch of accumulation. As for winds, westerly
winds will likely increase through the day across the Central
Coast as well as the mountains and deserts. However, at this time,
any advisory-level gusts should remain very localized. So, do not
anticipate the need for any advisories at this time.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are expected at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

The cold upper low that brought widespread rain to the forecast
area Sat was centered in southern Nevada early this morning.
Abundant deep moisture to about 7000 ft was in place across the
region early this morning. Skies were generally mostly cloudy,
except partly cloudy in coastal areas south of Pt Conception and
in the Antelope Valley. Moist, strongly cyclonic northwesterly
flow continued over the area, and isolated to scattered showers
were currently affecting areas north of Pt Conception and the
northern mountain slopes. This should continue thru the morning.

A rather strong vort lobe will rotate across the forecast area
this morning and early this afternoon. The upper flow will briefly
turn a bit more westerly. With the moisture and instability
(increased by any daytime heating), there may be an increase in
shower activity later this morning into this afternoon. Therefore
the forecast has at least a slight chance of showers for most of
the region this afternoon. Skies will generally be partly to
mostly cloudy. Slight height rises may allow max temps to edge up
a few degrees from those on Sat, especially if there is some
sunshine, but in general, highs will still be 6 to 12 degrees
below normal for this time of year, with some locations still 15
degrees below normal.

Gusty northwest winds will affect the Central Coast this afternoon
and evening, with strong west winds in the Antelope Valley. Winds
should stay mostly below advisory levels, although they may reach
low end advisory levels in the Antelope Valley. Gusty NW winds
tonight in southwestern SBA County will likely stay just below
advisory levels

The upper low will lift east-northeastward into Utah tonight,
then it will drift a bit to the south on Mon as another impulse
drops southward thru the western Great Basin. This will maintain a
decent trough over the region tonight and Mon. However, heights
will rise some, and the atmosphere will begin to dry. Therefore,
expect less in the way of cloudiness Mon, and there should be
several degrees of warming in most areas. Max temps will still be
below normal.

The upper low in Utah will move eastward into Colorado Mon night
and Tue, while another weak upper low develops over southeastern
CA Mon night, and moves into Arizona Tue. Increasing N-S
gradients and some subsidence should cause some gusty, possibly
advisory levels NW to N winds across the western Santa Ynez Range,
and coastal southwestern SBA County Mon night.

Good height rises, offshore N-S gradients, weakening onshore
gradients between KLAX and KDAG and plenty of sunshine should
bring significant warming to most areas Tue, with max temps
possibly rising just above 80 degrees in the warmest valley
locations and in the Antelope Valley, which would be slightly
above normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...27/536 AM.

Fairly uneventful weather pattern Wed thru Fri. A weak trough
will drop southward thru CA Wed, then a weak closed upper low
will form over the forecast area Thu. The low will move to the
east on Fri and a weak ridge will briefly build into southwestern
CA. Some cooling is expected Wed, with minor day to day changes
in max temps Thu and Fri. Low clouds and fog will likely return to
coastal areas Tue night/Wed morning, then become more widespread
and push into the valleys over the next couple of nights.

A more significant trough moving through the eastern Pacific will
move into the Pac NW Fri night/Sat, with a trough extending
southward into the forecast area. Expect widespread night thru
morning low clouds and fog Fri night/Sat morning, with significant
cooling likely Sat. The models and ensemble suggest there may be a
chance of rain late Sat or Sat night into Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1145Z.

At 0714Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. Scattered light
showers at KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX thru around 20Z Sun. MVFR to VFR
conds and several clouds decks at times expected thru fcst pd.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. BKN030-050 likely through
much of the period. There is a 15% chance of east wind component
reaching 8 kts from 10Z to 18Z Mon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of
-SHRA through Sun afternoon. BKN030-050 likely through much of
the fcst pd.

&&

.MARINE...27/904 AM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

For the Outer Waters, widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds are likely this afternoon through at least Tuesday night.
However, there may be a brief lull in SCA level winds Monday
morning in PZZ670. There is a 20-40% chance of SCA level winds
Wednesday, highest over the northern waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, SCA winds are possible
during the afternoon/evening hours today through Tuesday (50-80%
chance), with lowest chances on Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is an 80%
chance of SCA level winds across the SBA Channel and a 40-50%
chance for NW portions of PZZ655 today. There is a 50-60% chance
of SCA level winds for western portions of SBA Channel Monday
afternoon/evening, with much lower chances Tuesday through
Wednesday.

Across the waters, rain showers will be possible over the northern
sections through this morning. Seas are generally expected to
remain below SCA levels through the work week. However, seas could
approach SCA Criteria at times across far western portions of the
Outer Waters through Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening
      for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB/Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Lund
SYNOPSIS...DB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox